An expanded calibration model for inferring lakewater and air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages in northern Fennoscandia
Chironomid-temperature inference models based on an expanded data set of surface-sediment and limnological data from 53 Subarctic lakes in northern Fennoscandia have been developed using eight different numerical techniques, each based on slightly different underlying statistical models or ecologica...
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ftucl:oai:eprints.ucl.ac.uk.OAI2:155739 2023-05-15T16:11:41+02:00 An expanded calibration model for inferring lakewater and air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages in northern Fennoscandia Olander, H Birks, HJB Korhola, A Blom, T 1999-05 http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/155739/ unknown ARNOLD, HODDER HEADLINE PLC HOLOCENE , 9 (3) pp. 279-294. (1999) chironomidae Subarctic ordination techniques calibration models transfer function summer temperature palaeoclimate Holocene northern Fennoscandia CANONICAL CORRESPONDENCE-ANALYSIS PARTIAL LEAST-SQUARES PAST CLIMATIC-CHANGE QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS AQUATIC INVERTEBRATES LAKE TEMPERATURES WATER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ANALYSIS DIATOMS RECONSTRUCTION Article 1999 ftucl 2016-01-21T23:12:14Z Chironomid-temperature inference models based on an expanded data set of surface-sediment and limnological data from 53 Subarctic lakes in northern Fennoscandia have been developed using eight different numerical techniques, each based on slightly different underlying statistical models or ecological assumptions. The study sites are mostly small, shallow, bathymetrically simple, oligotrophic lakes, with a pH range from 5.0 to 7.8, a total organic carbon range from 2.5 to 12.6 mg l(-1), a mean July lakewater temperature ranging from 6.1 to 15.4 degrees C, and a mean July air temperature ranging from 8.5 to 14.9 degrees C. A series of redundancy analyses (RDA) identified sediment organic content, maximum lake depth, and lakewater temperature as being the most important explanatory Variables. Variance partitioning by partial RDAs further suggested that each of these Variables accounted for a significant fraction of variance independent from each other. Different call models were assessed on the basis of their statistical performance, with particular reference to prediction errors and the amount of bias along the temperature gradient. Of the eight calibration models, modem analogue techniques, weighted averaging partial least squares, simple weighted averaging with an 'inverse' deshrinking regression, and linear partial least squares consistently performed best. These methods can all be used to develop transfer functions for surface-water and air July temperatures with a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) of about 1.5-1.6 degrees C (water temperature) and 0.8-1.1 degrees C (air temperature), as assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. The resulting models do, however, have relatively high maximum biases (up to 3.9 degrees C) in the lowest segments of the air and water temperature gradients, highlighting the need for enlarging and expanding the calibration data set to include lower temperatures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Fennoscandia Subarctic University College London: UCL Discovery |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University College London: UCL Discovery |
op_collection_id |
ftucl |
language |
unknown |
topic |
chironomidae Subarctic ordination techniques calibration models transfer function summer temperature palaeoclimate Holocene northern Fennoscandia CANONICAL CORRESPONDENCE-ANALYSIS PARTIAL LEAST-SQUARES PAST CLIMATIC-CHANGE QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS AQUATIC INVERTEBRATES LAKE TEMPERATURES WATER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ANALYSIS DIATOMS RECONSTRUCTION |
spellingShingle |
chironomidae Subarctic ordination techniques calibration models transfer function summer temperature palaeoclimate Holocene northern Fennoscandia CANONICAL CORRESPONDENCE-ANALYSIS PARTIAL LEAST-SQUARES PAST CLIMATIC-CHANGE QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS AQUATIC INVERTEBRATES LAKE TEMPERATURES WATER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ANALYSIS DIATOMS RECONSTRUCTION Olander, H Birks, HJB Korhola, A Blom, T An expanded calibration model for inferring lakewater and air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages in northern Fennoscandia |
topic_facet |
chironomidae Subarctic ordination techniques calibration models transfer function summer temperature palaeoclimate Holocene northern Fennoscandia CANONICAL CORRESPONDENCE-ANALYSIS PARTIAL LEAST-SQUARES PAST CLIMATIC-CHANGE QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS AQUATIC INVERTEBRATES LAKE TEMPERATURES WATER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ANALYSIS DIATOMS RECONSTRUCTION |
description |
Chironomid-temperature inference models based on an expanded data set of surface-sediment and limnological data from 53 Subarctic lakes in northern Fennoscandia have been developed using eight different numerical techniques, each based on slightly different underlying statistical models or ecological assumptions. The study sites are mostly small, shallow, bathymetrically simple, oligotrophic lakes, with a pH range from 5.0 to 7.8, a total organic carbon range from 2.5 to 12.6 mg l(-1), a mean July lakewater temperature ranging from 6.1 to 15.4 degrees C, and a mean July air temperature ranging from 8.5 to 14.9 degrees C. A series of redundancy analyses (RDA) identified sediment organic content, maximum lake depth, and lakewater temperature as being the most important explanatory Variables. Variance partitioning by partial RDAs further suggested that each of these Variables accounted for a significant fraction of variance independent from each other. Different call models were assessed on the basis of their statistical performance, with particular reference to prediction errors and the amount of bias along the temperature gradient. Of the eight calibration models, modem analogue techniques, weighted averaging partial least squares, simple weighted averaging with an 'inverse' deshrinking regression, and linear partial least squares consistently performed best. These methods can all be used to develop transfer functions for surface-water and air July temperatures with a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) of about 1.5-1.6 degrees C (water temperature) and 0.8-1.1 degrees C (air temperature), as assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. The resulting models do, however, have relatively high maximum biases (up to 3.9 degrees C) in the lowest segments of the air and water temperature gradients, highlighting the need for enlarging and expanding the calibration data set to include lower temperatures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Olander, H Birks, HJB Korhola, A Blom, T |
author_facet |
Olander, H Birks, HJB Korhola, A Blom, T |
author_sort |
Olander, H |
title |
An expanded calibration model for inferring lakewater and air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages in northern Fennoscandia |
title_short |
An expanded calibration model for inferring lakewater and air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages in northern Fennoscandia |
title_full |
An expanded calibration model for inferring lakewater and air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages in northern Fennoscandia |
title_fullStr |
An expanded calibration model for inferring lakewater and air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages in northern Fennoscandia |
title_full_unstemmed |
An expanded calibration model for inferring lakewater and air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages in northern Fennoscandia |
title_sort |
expanded calibration model for inferring lakewater and air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages in northern fennoscandia |
publisher |
ARNOLD, HODDER HEADLINE PLC |
publishDate |
1999 |
url |
http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/155739/ |
genre |
Fennoscandia Subarctic |
genre_facet |
Fennoscandia Subarctic |
op_source |
HOLOCENE , 9 (3) pp. 279-294. (1999) |
_version_ |
1765996840637956096 |