Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North Atlantic
[1] Interannual variability in winter storminess over the North Atlantic and Europe causes significant risk and uncertainty. Attempts to seasonally predict winter storminess levels have identified little skill to date. However, recent statistical studies of observational data indicate the presence o...
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ftucl:oai:eprints.ucl.ac.uk.OAI2:155385 2023-12-24T10:22:53+01:00 Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North Atlantic Qian, BD Saunders, MA 2003-07-09 application/pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/155385/1/2003GL017401.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/155385/ eng eng AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/155385/1/2003GL017401.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/155385/ open Geophysical Research Letters , 30 (13) , Article 1698. (2003) Snow cover Climate variability Oscillation Anomalies NAO Article 2003 ftucl 2023-11-27T13:07:28Z [1] Interannual variability in winter storminess over the North Atlantic and Europe causes significant risk and uncertainty. Attempts to seasonally predict winter storminess levels have identified little skill to date. However, recent statistical studies of observational data indicate the presence of marginal but useful skill in predicting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This predictability arises from a significant (p < 0.01) link between northern hemisphere summer snow extent and the coming winter NAO state. We apply this link to assess the seasonal predictability in winter storminess 1972/3-2000/1 at a given point. The correlation skill for predicting, by early September, the numbers of winter gale days and storm force days in the main North Atlantic winter storm track region is between 0.5 and 0.6. Our finding suggests the seasonal predictability of North Atlantic winter storminess may be higher and extend to longer leads than thought previously. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University College London: UCL Discovery |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University College London: UCL Discovery |
op_collection_id |
ftucl |
language |
English |
topic |
Snow cover Climate variability Oscillation Anomalies NAO |
spellingShingle |
Snow cover Climate variability Oscillation Anomalies NAO Qian, BD Saunders, MA Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Snow cover Climate variability Oscillation Anomalies NAO |
description |
[1] Interannual variability in winter storminess over the North Atlantic and Europe causes significant risk and uncertainty. Attempts to seasonally predict winter storminess levels have identified little skill to date. However, recent statistical studies of observational data indicate the presence of marginal but useful skill in predicting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This predictability arises from a significant (p < 0.01) link between northern hemisphere summer snow extent and the coming winter NAO state. We apply this link to assess the seasonal predictability in winter storminess 1972/3-2000/1 at a given point. The correlation skill for predicting, by early September, the numbers of winter gale days and storm force days in the main North Atlantic winter storm track region is between 0.5 and 0.6. Our finding suggests the seasonal predictability of North Atlantic winter storminess may be higher and extend to longer leads than thought previously. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Qian, BD Saunders, MA |
author_facet |
Qian, BD Saunders, MA |
author_sort |
Qian, BD |
title |
Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North Atlantic |
title_short |
Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North Atlantic |
title_full |
Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the North Atlantic |
title_sort |
seasonal predictability of wintertime storminess over the north atlantic |
publisher |
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/155385/1/2003GL017401.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/155385/ |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters , 30 (13) , Article 1698. (2003) |
op_relation |
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/155385/1/2003GL017401.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/155385/ |
op_rights |
open |
_version_ |
1786196424910700544 |