Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission
Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) em...
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ftucl:oai:eprints.ucl.ac.uk.OAI2:1536935 2023-12-24T10:12:53+01:00 Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission Notz, D Stroeve, J 2016-11-11 text https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1536935/1/Stroeve_sea_ice_loss_aag2345_05Oct.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1536935/ eng eng AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1536935/1/Stroeve_sea_ice_loss_aag2345_05Oct.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1536935/ open Science , 354 (6313) pp. 747-750. (2016) Science & Technology Multidisciplinary Sciences Science & Technology - Other Topics CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ENERGY-BALANCE MODELS TEMPERATURE FUTURE BUDGET CMIP5 Article 2016 ftucl 2023-11-27T13:07:32Z Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice University College London: UCL Discovery Arctic Arctic Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University College London: UCL Discovery |
op_collection_id |
ftucl |
language |
English |
topic |
Science & Technology Multidisciplinary Sciences Science & Technology - Other Topics CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ENERGY-BALANCE MODELS TEMPERATURE FUTURE BUDGET CMIP5 |
spellingShingle |
Science & Technology Multidisciplinary Sciences Science & Technology - Other Topics CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ENERGY-BALANCE MODELS TEMPERATURE FUTURE BUDGET CMIP5 Notz, D Stroeve, J Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission |
topic_facet |
Science & Technology Multidisciplinary Sciences Science & Technology - Other Topics CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ENERGY-BALANCE MODELS TEMPERATURE FUTURE BUDGET CMIP5 |
description |
Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Notz, D Stroeve, J |
author_facet |
Notz, D Stroeve, J |
author_sort |
Notz, D |
title |
Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission |
title_short |
Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission |
title_full |
Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission |
title_fullStr |
Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission |
title_sort |
observed arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic co2 emission |
publisher |
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1536935/1/Stroeve_sea_ice_loss_aag2345_05Oct.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1536935/ |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_source |
Science , 354 (6313) pp. 747-750. (2016) |
op_relation |
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1536935/1/Stroeve_sea_ice_loss_aag2345_05Oct.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1536935/ |
op_rights |
open |
_version_ |
1786177507974709248 |