Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic

• Main Authors: Stroeve, JC, Crawford, AD, Stammerjohn, S
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION 2016
• Subjects: Science & Technology; Physical Sciences; Geosciences; Multidisciplinary; Geology; SEA-ICE; LAPTEV SEA; FORECAST; OUTLOOK; EXTENT; SKILL; Arctic sea ice; seasonal forecasting; Arctic; Laptev Sea; Okhotsk; albedo; laptev; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1508321/1/Stroeve_et_al-2016-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf; https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1508321/

Reliable forecasts of the timing of sea ice advance are needed in order to reduce risks associatedwith operating in the Arctic as well as planning of human and environmental emergencies. This studyinvestigates the use of a simple statistical model relating the timing of ice retreat to the timing of ice advance,taking advantage of the inherent predictive power supplied by the seasonal ice-albedo feedback and oceanheat uptake. Results show that using the last retreat date to predict the first advance date is applicable insome regions, such as Baffin Bay and the Laptev and East Siberian seas, where a predictive skill is found evenafter accounting for the long-term trend in both variables. Elsewhere, in the Arctic, there is some predictive skillsdepending on the year (e.g., Kara and Beaufort seas), but none in regions such as the Barents and Bering seas orthe Sea of Okhotsk. While there is some suggestion that the relationship is strengthening over time, this mayreflect that higher correlations are expected during periods when the underlying trend is strong.