Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models
We discuss the current understanding of past and future sea-ice evolution as inferred from combining model simulations and observations. In such combined analysis, the models allow us to enhance our understanding behind the observed evolution of sea ice, while the observations allow us to assess how...
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ftucl:oai:eprints.ucl.ac.uk.OAI2:1474381 2023-12-24T10:13:57+01:00 Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models Stroeve, J Notz, D 2015-12 text https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1474381/1/Stroeve_and_Notz_manuscript_revised_clean.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1474381/ eng eng https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1474381/1/Stroeve_and_Notz_manuscript_revised_clean.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1474381/ open Global and Planetary Change , 135 (C) pp. 119-132. (2015) Arctic sea ice Future climate change Sea ice predictability Article 2015 ftucl 2023-11-27T13:07:37Z We discuss the current understanding of past and future sea-ice evolution as inferred from combining model simulations and observations. In such combined analysis, the models allow us to enhance our understanding behind the observed evolution of sea ice, while the observations allow us to assess how realistically the models represent the processes that govern sea-ice evolution in the real world. Combined, observations and models thus provide robust insights into the functioning of sea ice in the Earth's climate system, and can inform policy decisions related to the future evolution of the ice cover. We find that models and observations agree well on the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to global warming and on the main drivers for the observed retreat. In contrast, a robust reduction of the uncertainty range of future sea-ice evolution remains difficult, in particular since the observational record is often too short to robustly examine the impact of internal variability on model biases. Process-based model evaluation and model evaluation based on seasonal-prediction systems provide promising ways to overcome these limitations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice University College London: UCL Discovery Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University College London: UCL Discovery |
op_collection_id |
ftucl |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice Future climate change Sea ice predictability |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice Future climate change Sea ice predictability Stroeve, J Notz, D Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice Future climate change Sea ice predictability |
description |
We discuss the current understanding of past and future sea-ice evolution as inferred from combining model simulations and observations. In such combined analysis, the models allow us to enhance our understanding behind the observed evolution of sea ice, while the observations allow us to assess how realistically the models represent the processes that govern sea-ice evolution in the real world. Combined, observations and models thus provide robust insights into the functioning of sea ice in the Earth's climate system, and can inform policy decisions related to the future evolution of the ice cover. We find that models and observations agree well on the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to global warming and on the main drivers for the observed retreat. In contrast, a robust reduction of the uncertainty range of future sea-ice evolution remains difficult, in particular since the observational record is often too short to robustly examine the impact of internal variability on model biases. Process-based model evaluation and model evaluation based on seasonal-prediction systems provide promising ways to overcome these limitations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Stroeve, J Notz, D |
author_facet |
Stroeve, J Notz, D |
author_sort |
Stroeve, J |
title |
Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models |
title_short |
Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models |
title_full |
Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models |
title_fullStr |
Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models |
title_sort |
insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1474381/1/Stroeve_and_Notz_manuscript_revised_clean.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1474381/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Global and Planetary Change , 135 (C) pp. 119-132. (2015) |
op_relation |
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1474381/1/Stroeve_and_Notz_manuscript_revised_clean.pdf https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1474381/ |
op_rights |
open |
_version_ |
1786187799146266624 |