The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0:a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change
Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quan...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
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2023
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/f17bd597-5176-4f24-8262-303831e6c5b6 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/f17bd597-5176-4f24-8262-303831e6c5b6 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/7461/2023/ |
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/f17bd597-5176-4f24-8262-303831e6c5b6 2024-05-19T07:29:54+00:00 The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0:a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change Kopp, Robert e. Garner, Gregory g. Hermans, Tim h. j. Jha, Shantenu Kumar, Praveen Reedy, Alexander Slangen, Aimée b. a. Turilli, Matteo Edwards, Tamsin l. Gregory, Jonathan m. Koubbe, George Levermann, Anders Merzky, Andre Nowicki, Sophie Palmer, Matthew d. Smith, Chris 2023-12-21 https://hdl.handle.net/1983/f17bd597-5176-4f24-8262-303831e6c5b6 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/f17bd597-5176-4f24-8262-303831e6c5b6 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/7461/2023/ eng eng https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/f17bd597-5176-4f24-8262-303831e6c5b6 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Kopp , R E , Garner , G G , Hermans , T H J , Jha , S , Kumar , P , Reedy , A , Slangen , A B A , Turilli , M , Edwards , T L , Gregory , J M , Koubbe , G , Levermann , A , Merzky , A , Nowicki , S , Palmer , M D & Smith , C 2023 , ' The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0 : a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change ' , Geoscientific Model Development , vol. 16 , pp. 7461-7489 . https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 article 2023 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 2024-05-01T00:00:41Z Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Greenland University of Bristol: Bristol Research Geoscientific Model Development 16 24 7461 7489 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
op_collection_id |
ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
description |
Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kopp, Robert e. Garner, Gregory g. Hermans, Tim h. j. Jha, Shantenu Kumar, Praveen Reedy, Alexander Slangen, Aimée b. a. Turilli, Matteo Edwards, Tamsin l. Gregory, Jonathan m. Koubbe, George Levermann, Anders Merzky, Andre Nowicki, Sophie Palmer, Matthew d. Smith, Chris |
spellingShingle |
Kopp, Robert e. Garner, Gregory g. Hermans, Tim h. j. Jha, Shantenu Kumar, Praveen Reedy, Alexander Slangen, Aimée b. a. Turilli, Matteo Edwards, Tamsin l. Gregory, Jonathan m. Koubbe, George Levermann, Anders Merzky, Andre Nowicki, Sophie Palmer, Matthew d. Smith, Chris The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0:a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
author_facet |
Kopp, Robert e. Garner, Gregory g. Hermans, Tim h. j. Jha, Shantenu Kumar, Praveen Reedy, Alexander Slangen, Aimée b. a. Turilli, Matteo Edwards, Tamsin l. Gregory, Jonathan m. Koubbe, George Levermann, Anders Merzky, Andre Nowicki, Sophie Palmer, Matthew d. Smith, Chris |
author_sort |
Kopp, Robert e. |
title |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0:a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_short |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0:a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_full |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0:a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_fullStr |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0:a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0:a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
title_sort |
framework for assessing changes to sea-level (facts) v1.0:a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/f17bd597-5176-4f24-8262-303831e6c5b6 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/f17bd597-5176-4f24-8262-303831e6c5b6 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/7461/2023/ |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_source |
Kopp , R E , Garner , G G , Hermans , T H J , Jha , S , Kumar , P , Reedy , A , Slangen , A B A , Turilli , M , Edwards , T L , Gregory , J M , Koubbe , G , Levermann , A , Merzky , A , Nowicki , S , Palmer , M D & Smith , C 2023 , ' The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0 : a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change ' , Geoscientific Model Development , vol. 16 , pp. 7461-7489 . https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 |
op_relation |
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/f17bd597-5176-4f24-8262-303831e6c5b6 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
24 |
container_start_page |
7461 |
op_container_end_page |
7489 |
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1799482207356583936 |