Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability
Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disinte...
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2019
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/de5e9847-612f-42fb-97b0-5d7ff43d37b8 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/de5e9847-612f-42fb-97b0-5d7ff43d37b8 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/220833216/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061146872&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/ |
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/de5e9847-612f-42fb-97b0-5d7ff43d37b8 2024-04-28T08:02:47+00:00 Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability Edwards, Tamsin L. Brandon, Mark A. Durand, Gael Edwards, Neil R. Golledge, Nicholas R. Holden, Philip B. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Ritz, Catherine Wernecke, Andreas 2019-02-07 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1983/de5e9847-612f-42fb-97b0-5d7ff43d37b8 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/de5e9847-612f-42fb-97b0-5d7ff43d37b8 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/220833216/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061146872&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/ eng eng https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/de5e9847-612f-42fb-97b0-5d7ff43d37b8 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Edwards , T L , Brandon , M A , Durand , G , Edwards , N R , Golledge , N R , Holden , P B , Nias , I J , Payne , A J , Ritz , C & Wernecke , A 2019 , ' Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability ' , Nature , vol. 566 , pp. 58-64 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 article 2019 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 2024-04-10T00:08:10Z Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992–2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves University of Bristol: Bristol Research Nature 566 7742 58 64 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
op_collection_id |
ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
description |
Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992–2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Brandon, Mark A. Durand, Gael Edwards, Neil R. Golledge, Nicholas R. Holden, Philip B. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Ritz, Catherine Wernecke, Andreas |
spellingShingle |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Brandon, Mark A. Durand, Gael Edwards, Neil R. Golledge, Nicholas R. Holden, Philip B. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Ritz, Catherine Wernecke, Andreas Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability |
author_facet |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Brandon, Mark A. Durand, Gael Edwards, Neil R. Golledge, Nicholas R. Holden, Philip B. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Ritz, Catherine Wernecke, Andreas |
author_sort |
Edwards, Tamsin L. |
title |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability |
title_short |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability |
title_full |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability |
title_fullStr |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability |
title_sort |
revisiting antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/de5e9847-612f-42fb-97b0-5d7ff43d37b8 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/de5e9847-612f-42fb-97b0-5d7ff43d37b8 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/220833216/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061146872&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/ |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
op_source |
Edwards , T L , Brandon , M A , Durand , G , Edwards , N R , Golledge , N R , Holden , P B , Nias , I J , Payne , A J , Ritz , C & Wernecke , A 2019 , ' Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability ' , Nature , vol. 566 , pp. 58-64 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 |
op_relation |
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/de5e9847-612f-42fb-97b0-5d7ff43d37b8 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
566 |
container_issue |
7742 |
container_start_page |
58 |
op_container_end_page |
64 |
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1797574048477085696 |