Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development
The early Eocene greenhouse climate maintained by high atmospheric CO2 concentrations serves as a testbed for future climate changes dominated by increasing CO2 forcing. In particular, the early Eocene Arctic region is important in the context of future CO2 driven climate warming in the northern pol...
Published in: | Global and Planetary Change |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/d0b47190-2920-4c14-8097-d82d24dc2354 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/d0b47190-2920-4c14-8097-d82d24dc2354 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 |
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/d0b47190-2920-4c14-8097-d82d24dc2354 2024-02-11T09:59:34+01:00 Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development Niezgodzki, Igor Knorr, Gregor Lohmann, Gerrit Lunt, Daniel J. Poulsen, Christopher J. Steinig, Sebastian Zhu, Jiang De Boer, Agatha Chan, Wing-le Donnadieu, Yannick Hutchinson, David K. Ladant, Jean-baptiste Morozova, Polina 2022-05-25 https://hdl.handle.net/1983/d0b47190-2920-4c14-8097-d82d24dc2354 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/d0b47190-2920-4c14-8097-d82d24dc2354 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Niezgodzki , I , Knorr , G , Lohmann , G , Lunt , D J , Poulsen , C J , Steinig , S , Zhu , J , De Boer , A , Chan , W , Donnadieu , Y , Hutchinson , D K , Ladant , J & Morozova , P 2022 , ' Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development ' , Global and Planetary Change , vol. 214 , 103848 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 article 2022 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 2024-01-18T23:32:31Z The early Eocene greenhouse climate maintained by high atmospheric CO2 concentrations serves as a testbed for future climate changes dominated by increasing CO2 forcing. In particular, the early Eocene Arctic region is important in the context of future CO2 driven climate warming in the northern polar region and associated shrinking Arctic sea ice. Here, we present early Eocene Arctic sea ice simulations carried out by six coupled climate models within the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). We find differences in sea ice responses to CO2 changes across the ensemble and compare the results with available proxy-based sea ice reconstructions from the Arctic Ocean. Most of the models simulate seasonal sea ice presence at high CO2 levels (≥ 840 ppmv = 3× pre-industrial (PI) level of 280 ppmv). However, the threshold when sea ice permanently disappears from the ocean varies considerably between the models (from 1680 ppmv). Based on a one-dimensional energy balance model analysis we find that the greenhouse effect likely caused by increased atmospheric water vapor concentration plays an important role in the inter-model spread in Arctic winter surface temperature changes in response to a CO2 rise from 1× to 3× the PI level. Furthermore, differences in simulated surface salinity in the Arctic Ocean play an important role in the control of local sea ice formation. These differences result from different implementations of river run-off between the models, but also from differences in the exchange of waters between a brackish Arctic and a more saline North Atlantic Ocean that are controlled by the width of the gateway between both basins. As there is no geological evidence for Arctic sea ice in the early Eocene, its presence in most of the simulations with 3× PI CO2 level indicates either a higher CO2 level and/or an overly weak polar sensitivity in these models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Sea ice University of Bristol: Bristol Research Arctic Arctic Ocean Global and Planetary Change 214 103848 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
op_collection_id |
ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
description |
The early Eocene greenhouse climate maintained by high atmospheric CO2 concentrations serves as a testbed for future climate changes dominated by increasing CO2 forcing. In particular, the early Eocene Arctic region is important in the context of future CO2 driven climate warming in the northern polar region and associated shrinking Arctic sea ice. Here, we present early Eocene Arctic sea ice simulations carried out by six coupled climate models within the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). We find differences in sea ice responses to CO2 changes across the ensemble and compare the results with available proxy-based sea ice reconstructions from the Arctic Ocean. Most of the models simulate seasonal sea ice presence at high CO2 levels (≥ 840 ppmv = 3× pre-industrial (PI) level of 280 ppmv). However, the threshold when sea ice permanently disappears from the ocean varies considerably between the models (from 1680 ppmv). Based on a one-dimensional energy balance model analysis we find that the greenhouse effect likely caused by increased atmospheric water vapor concentration plays an important role in the inter-model spread in Arctic winter surface temperature changes in response to a CO2 rise from 1× to 3× the PI level. Furthermore, differences in simulated surface salinity in the Arctic Ocean play an important role in the control of local sea ice formation. These differences result from different implementations of river run-off between the models, but also from differences in the exchange of waters between a brackish Arctic and a more saline North Atlantic Ocean that are controlled by the width of the gateway between both basins. As there is no geological evidence for Arctic sea ice in the early Eocene, its presence in most of the simulations with 3× PI CO2 level indicates either a higher CO2 level and/or an overly weak polar sensitivity in these models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Niezgodzki, Igor Knorr, Gregor Lohmann, Gerrit Lunt, Daniel J. Poulsen, Christopher J. Steinig, Sebastian Zhu, Jiang De Boer, Agatha Chan, Wing-le Donnadieu, Yannick Hutchinson, David K. Ladant, Jean-baptiste Morozova, Polina |
spellingShingle |
Niezgodzki, Igor Knorr, Gregor Lohmann, Gerrit Lunt, Daniel J. Poulsen, Christopher J. Steinig, Sebastian Zhu, Jiang De Boer, Agatha Chan, Wing-le Donnadieu, Yannick Hutchinson, David K. Ladant, Jean-baptiste Morozova, Polina Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
author_facet |
Niezgodzki, Igor Knorr, Gregor Lohmann, Gerrit Lunt, Daniel J. Poulsen, Christopher J. Steinig, Sebastian Zhu, Jiang De Boer, Agatha Chan, Wing-le Donnadieu, Yannick Hutchinson, David K. Ladant, Jean-baptiste Morozova, Polina |
author_sort |
Niezgodzki, Igor |
title |
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
title_short |
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
title_full |
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
title_fullStr |
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
title_sort |
simulation of arctic sea ice within the deepmip eocene ensemble: thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/d0b47190-2920-4c14-8097-d82d24dc2354 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/d0b47190-2920-4c14-8097-d82d24dc2354 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Niezgodzki , I , Knorr , G , Lohmann , G , Lunt , D J , Poulsen , C J , Steinig , S , Zhu , J , De Boer , A , Chan , W , Donnadieu , Y , Hutchinson , D K , Ladant , J & Morozova , P 2022 , ' Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development ' , Global and Planetary Change , vol. 214 , 103848 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 |
container_title |
Global and Planetary Change |
container_volume |
214 |
container_start_page |
103848 |
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1790595408335994880 |