Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate
We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2015
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/c4937a7a-12fc-4d50-93bc-388cf34d44af https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/c4937a7a-12fc-4d50-93bc-388cf34d44af https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/47137185/tc_9_1579_2015.pdf |
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/c4937a7a-12fc-4d50-93bc-388cf34d44af 2024-05-19T07:28:20+00:00 Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate Cornford, Stephen L Martin, D. F. Payne, A J Ng, E. G. Le Brocq, Anne Gladstone, Rupert M Edwards, Tamsin L Shannon, Sarah R Agosta, C. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Hellmer, H Krinner, G Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D G 2015-08-18 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1983/c4937a7a-12fc-4d50-93bc-388cf34d44af https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/c4937a7a-12fc-4d50-93bc-388cf34d44af https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/47137185/tc_9_1579_2015.pdf eng eng https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/c4937a7a-12fc-4d50-93bc-388cf34d44af info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Cornford , S L , Martin , D F , Payne , A J , Ng , E G , Le Brocq , A , Gladstone , R M , Edwards , T L , Shannon , S R , Agosta , C , van den Broeke , M R , Hellmer , H , Krinner , G , Ligtenberg , S R M , Timmermann , R & Vaughan , D G 2015 , ' Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate ' , Cryosphere , vol. 9 , no. 4 , pp. 1579-1600 . https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 article 2015 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 2024-04-23T23:50:28Z We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Thwaites Glacier University of Bristol: Bristol Research The Cryosphere 9 4 1579 1600 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
op_collection_id |
ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
description |
We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cornford, Stephen L Martin, D. F. Payne, A J Ng, E. G. Le Brocq, Anne Gladstone, Rupert M Edwards, Tamsin L Shannon, Sarah R Agosta, C. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Hellmer, H Krinner, G Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D G |
spellingShingle |
Cornford, Stephen L Martin, D. F. Payne, A J Ng, E. G. Le Brocq, Anne Gladstone, Rupert M Edwards, Tamsin L Shannon, Sarah R Agosta, C. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Hellmer, H Krinner, G Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D G Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
author_facet |
Cornford, Stephen L Martin, D. F. Payne, A J Ng, E. G. Le Brocq, Anne Gladstone, Rupert M Edwards, Tamsin L Shannon, Sarah R Agosta, C. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Hellmer, H Krinner, G Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D G |
author_sort |
Cornford, Stephen L |
title |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_short |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_sort |
century-scale simulations of the response of the west antarctic ice sheet to a warming climate |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/c4937a7a-12fc-4d50-93bc-388cf34d44af https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/c4937a7a-12fc-4d50-93bc-388cf34d44af https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/47137185/tc_9_1579_2015.pdf |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Thwaites Glacier |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Thwaites Glacier |
op_source |
Cornford , S L , Martin , D F , Payne , A J , Ng , E G , Le Brocq , A , Gladstone , R M , Edwards , T L , Shannon , S R , Agosta , C , van den Broeke , M R , Hellmer , H , Krinner , G , Ligtenberg , S R M , Timmermann , R & Vaughan , D G 2015 , ' Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate ' , Cryosphere , vol. 9 , no. 4 , pp. 1579-1600 . https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 |
op_relation |
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/c4937a7a-12fc-4d50-93bc-388cf34d44af |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1579 |
op_container_end_page |
1600 |
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1799472413939859456 |