Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone
Using a set of seasonal hindcast simulations produced by the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GloSea5), significant predictability of the southern annular mode (SAM) is demonstrated during the austral spring. The correlation of the September-November mean SAM with observed valu...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2014
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/c250fb75-eb0c-4d7d-9cc5-4236fe609204 2024-05-19T07:30:00+00:00 Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone Seviour, William J.M. Hardiman, Steven C. Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Maclachlan, Craig Scaife, Adam A. 2014-01-01 https://hdl.handle.net/1983/c250fb75-eb0c-4d7d-9cc5-4236fe609204 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/c250fb75-eb0c-4d7d-9cc5-4236fe609204 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00264.1 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84907587166&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/c250fb75-eb0c-4d7d-9cc5-4236fe609204 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Seviour , W J M , Hardiman , S C , Gray , L J , Butchart , N , Maclachlan , C & Scaife , A A 2014 , ' Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone ' , Journal of Climate , vol. 27 , no. 19 , pp. 7462-7474 . https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00264.1 Ozone Seasonal forecasting Southern oscillation Stratophere-troposphere coupling article 2014 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00264.1 2024-04-30T23:51:18Z Using a set of seasonal hindcast simulations produced by the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GloSea5), significant predictability of the southern annular mode (SAM) is demonstrated during the austral spring. The correlation of the September-November mean SAM with observed values is 0.64, which is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level [confidence interval: (0.18, 0.92)], and is similar to that found recently for the North Atlantic Oscillation in the same system. Significant skill is also found in the prediction of the strength of the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex at 1 month average lead times. Because of the observed strong correlation between interannual variability in the strength of the Antarctic stratospheric circulation and ozone concentrations, it is possible to make skillful predictions of Antarctic column ozone amounts. By studying the variation of forecast skill with time and height, it is shown that skillful predictions of the SAM are significantly influenced by stratospheric anomalies that descend with time and are coupled with the troposphere. This effect allows skillful statistical forecasts of the October mean SAM to be produced based only on midstratosphere anomalies on 1 August. Together, these results both demonstrate a significant advance in the skill of seasonal forecasts of the Southern Hemisphere and highlight the importance of accurate modeling and observation of the stratosphere in producing long-range forecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Bristol: Bristol Research Journal of Climate 27 19 7462 7474 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
op_collection_id |
ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
topic |
Ozone Seasonal forecasting Southern oscillation Stratophere-troposphere coupling |
spellingShingle |
Ozone Seasonal forecasting Southern oscillation Stratophere-troposphere coupling Seviour, William J.M. Hardiman, Steven C. Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Maclachlan, Craig Scaife, Adam A. Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone |
topic_facet |
Ozone Seasonal forecasting Southern oscillation Stratophere-troposphere coupling |
description |
Using a set of seasonal hindcast simulations produced by the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GloSea5), significant predictability of the southern annular mode (SAM) is demonstrated during the austral spring. The correlation of the September-November mean SAM with observed values is 0.64, which is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level [confidence interval: (0.18, 0.92)], and is similar to that found recently for the North Atlantic Oscillation in the same system. Significant skill is also found in the prediction of the strength of the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex at 1 month average lead times. Because of the observed strong correlation between interannual variability in the strength of the Antarctic stratospheric circulation and ozone concentrations, it is possible to make skillful predictions of Antarctic column ozone amounts. By studying the variation of forecast skill with time and height, it is shown that skillful predictions of the SAM are significantly influenced by stratospheric anomalies that descend with time and are coupled with the troposphere. This effect allows skillful statistical forecasts of the October mean SAM to be produced based only on midstratosphere anomalies on 1 August. Together, these results both demonstrate a significant advance in the skill of seasonal forecasts of the Southern Hemisphere and highlight the importance of accurate modeling and observation of the stratosphere in producing long-range forecasts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Seviour, William J.M. Hardiman, Steven C. Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Maclachlan, Craig Scaife, Adam A. |
author_facet |
Seviour, William J.M. Hardiman, Steven C. Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Maclachlan, Craig Scaife, Adam A. |
author_sort |
Seviour, William J.M. |
title |
Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone |
title_short |
Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone |
title_full |
Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone |
title_fullStr |
Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone |
title_sort |
skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and antarctic ozone |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/c250fb75-eb0c-4d7d-9cc5-4236fe609204 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/c250fb75-eb0c-4d7d-9cc5-4236fe609204 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00264.1 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84907587166&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Seviour , W J M , Hardiman , S C , Gray , L J , Butchart , N , Maclachlan , C & Scaife , A A 2014 , ' Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone ' , Journal of Climate , vol. 27 , no. 19 , pp. 7462-7474 . https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00264.1 |
op_relation |
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/c250fb75-eb0c-4d7d-9cc5-4236fe609204 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00264.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
19 |
container_start_page |
7462 |
op_container_end_page |
7474 |
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1799483022686289920 |