Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model
A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B...
Published in: | Earth and Planetary Science Letters |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2012
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/bbf3bf65-09b2-4c52-a40a-c2be9a181433 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/bbf3bf65-09b2-4c52-a40a-c2be9a181433 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X12001896 |
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/bbf3bf65-09b2-4c52-a40a-c2be9a181433 2024-01-28T10:06:30+01:00 Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model Gladstone, RM Lee, V Rougier, JC Payne, AJ Hellmer, H Le Brocq, A Shepherd, A Edwards, TL Gregory, J Cornford, S L 2012-04 https://hdl.handle.net/1983/bbf3bf65-09b2-4c52-a40a-c2be9a181433 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/bbf3bf65-09b2-4c52-a40a-c2be9a181433 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X12001896 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Gladstone , RM , Lee , V , Rougier , JC , Payne , AJ , Hellmer , H , Le Brocq , A , Shepherd , A , Edwards , TL , Gregory , J & Cornford , S L 2012 , ' Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model ' , Earth and Planetary Science Letters , vol. 333-334 , pp. 191 - 199 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 article 2012 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 2024-01-04T23:36:41Z A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility. A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier University of Bristol: Bristol Research Pine Island Glacier ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) Earth and Planetary Science Letters 333-334 191 199 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
op_collection_id |
ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
description |
A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility. A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gladstone, RM Lee, V Rougier, JC Payne, AJ Hellmer, H Le Brocq, A Shepherd, A Edwards, TL Gregory, J Cornford, S L |
spellingShingle |
Gladstone, RM Lee, V Rougier, JC Payne, AJ Hellmer, H Le Brocq, A Shepherd, A Edwards, TL Gregory, J Cornford, S L Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
author_facet |
Gladstone, RM Lee, V Rougier, JC Payne, AJ Hellmer, H Le Brocq, A Shepherd, A Edwards, TL Gregory, J Cornford, S L |
author_sort |
Gladstone, RM |
title |
Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
title_short |
Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
title_full |
Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
title_fullStr |
Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
title_sort |
calibrated prediction of pine island glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/bbf3bf65-09b2-4c52-a40a-c2be9a181433 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/bbf3bf65-09b2-4c52-a40a-c2be9a181433 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X12001896 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) |
geographic |
Pine Island Glacier |
geographic_facet |
Pine Island Glacier |
genre |
Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier |
op_source |
Gladstone , RM , Lee , V , Rougier , JC , Payne , AJ , Hellmer , H , Le Brocq , A , Shepherd , A , Edwards , TL , Gregory , J & Cornford , S L 2012 , ' Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model ' , Earth and Planetary Science Letters , vol. 333-334 , pp. 191 - 199 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022 |
container_title |
Earth and Planetary Science Letters |
container_volume |
333-334 |
container_start_page |
191 |
op_container_end_page |
199 |
_version_ |
1789333434281230336 |