Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints
Climate model simulations available from the PMIP1, PMIP2 and CMIP (IPCC-AR4) intercomparison projects for past and future climate change simulations are examined in terms of polar temperature changes in comparison to global temperature changes and with respect to pre-industrial reference simulation...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/939b85b1-1c0f-4850-906b-b2ad1d91548a https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/939b85b1-1c0f-4850-906b-b2ad1d91548a https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0081-9 |
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/939b85b1-1c0f-4850-906b-b2ad1d91548a 2024-05-19T07:28:52+00:00 Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints Masson-Delmotte, V PMIP2, contributors Gladstone, RM 2006-04 https://hdl.handle.net/1983/939b85b1-1c0f-4850-906b-b2ad1d91548a https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/939b85b1-1c0f-4850-906b-b2ad1d91548a https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0081-9 eng eng https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/939b85b1-1c0f-4850-906b-b2ad1d91548a info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Masson-Delmotte , V , PMIP2 , C & Gladstone , RM 2006 , ' Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints ' , Climate Dynamics , vol. 26 , pp. 513 - 529 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0081-9 article 2006 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0081-9 2024-04-30T23:39:44Z Climate model simulations available from the PMIP1, PMIP2 and CMIP (IPCC-AR4) intercomparison projects for past and future climate change simulations are examined in terms of polar temperature changes in comparison to global temperature changes and with respect to pre-industrial reference simulations. For the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago), the models are forced by changes in the Earth's orbital parameters. The MH PMIP1 atmosphere-only simulations conducted with sea surface temperatures fixed to modern conditions show no MH consistent response for the poles, whereas the new PMIP2 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models systematically simulate a significant MH warming both for Greenland (but smaller than ice-core based estimates) and Antarctica (consistent with the range of ice-core based range). In both PMIP1 and PMIP2, the MH annual mean changes in global temperature are negligible, consistent with the MH orbital forcing. The simulated last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) to pre-industrial change in global mean temperature ranges between 3 and 7 degrees C in PMIP1 and PMIP2 model runs, similar to the range of temperature change expected from a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the CMIP simulations. Both LGM and future climate simulations are associated with a polar amplification of climate change. The range of glacial polar amplification in Greenland is strongly dependent on the ice sheet elevation changes prescribed to the climate models. All PMIP2 simulations systematically underestimate the reconstructed glacial-interglacial Greenland temperature change, while some of the simulations do capture the reconstructed glacial-interglacial Antarctic temperature change. Uncertainties in the prescribed central ice cap elevation cannot account for the temperature change underestimation by climate models. The variety of climate model sensitivities enables the exploration of the relative changes in polar temperature with respect to changes in global temperatures. Simulated changes of polar ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice cap ice core Ice Sheet University of Bristol: Bristol Research Climate Dynamics 26 5 513 529 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
op_collection_id |
ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
description |
Climate model simulations available from the PMIP1, PMIP2 and CMIP (IPCC-AR4) intercomparison projects for past and future climate change simulations are examined in terms of polar temperature changes in comparison to global temperature changes and with respect to pre-industrial reference simulations. For the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago), the models are forced by changes in the Earth's orbital parameters. The MH PMIP1 atmosphere-only simulations conducted with sea surface temperatures fixed to modern conditions show no MH consistent response for the poles, whereas the new PMIP2 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models systematically simulate a significant MH warming both for Greenland (but smaller than ice-core based estimates) and Antarctica (consistent with the range of ice-core based range). In both PMIP1 and PMIP2, the MH annual mean changes in global temperature are negligible, consistent with the MH orbital forcing. The simulated last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) to pre-industrial change in global mean temperature ranges between 3 and 7 degrees C in PMIP1 and PMIP2 model runs, similar to the range of temperature change expected from a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the CMIP simulations. Both LGM and future climate simulations are associated with a polar amplification of climate change. The range of glacial polar amplification in Greenland is strongly dependent on the ice sheet elevation changes prescribed to the climate models. All PMIP2 simulations systematically underestimate the reconstructed glacial-interglacial Greenland temperature change, while some of the simulations do capture the reconstructed glacial-interglacial Antarctic temperature change. Uncertainties in the prescribed central ice cap elevation cannot account for the temperature change underestimation by climate models. The variety of climate model sensitivities enables the exploration of the relative changes in polar temperature with respect to changes in global temperatures. Simulated changes of polar ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Masson-Delmotte, V PMIP2, contributors Gladstone, RM |
spellingShingle |
Masson-Delmotte, V PMIP2, contributors Gladstone, RM Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints |
author_facet |
Masson-Delmotte, V PMIP2, contributors Gladstone, RM |
author_sort |
Masson-Delmotte, V |
title |
Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints |
title_short |
Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints |
title_full |
Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints |
title_fullStr |
Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints |
title_sort |
past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/939b85b1-1c0f-4850-906b-b2ad1d91548a https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/939b85b1-1c0f-4850-906b-b2ad1d91548a https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0081-9 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice cap ice core Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice cap ice core Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Masson-Delmotte , V , PMIP2 , C & Gladstone , RM 2006 , ' Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints ' , Climate Dynamics , vol. 26 , pp. 513 - 529 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0081-9 |
op_relation |
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/939b85b1-1c0f-4850-906b-b2ad1d91548a |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0081-9 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
513 |
op_container_end_page |
529 |
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1799476347857272832 |