Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100
The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulation...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Language: | English |
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2020
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/8a495b14-bf8e-460b-9804-16c025754d3b https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/8a495b14-bf8e-460b-9804-16c025754d3b https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/240693679/Full_text_PDF_final_published_version_.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85083855289&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/8a495b14-bf8e-460b-9804-16c025754d3b 2024-05-12T07:52:49+00:00 Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Golledge, Nicholas R. Bingham, Rory J. 2020-04-15 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1983/8a495b14-bf8e-460b-9804-16c025754d3b https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/8a495b14-bf8e-460b-9804-16c025754d3b https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/240693679/Full_text_PDF_final_published_version_.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85083855289&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/8a495b14-bf8e-460b-9804-16c025754d3b info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Alevropoulos-Borrill , A V , Nias , I J , Payne , A J , Golledge , N R & Bingham , R J 2020 , ' Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 ' , Cryosphere , vol. 14 , no. 4 , pp. 1245-1258 . https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 article 2020 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 2024-04-17T14:34:42Z The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high-resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice-shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialization, we perform three further sets of CMIP5-forced experiments using different parameterizations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialization procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice-shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between -0.02 and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf West Antarctica University of Bristol: Bristol Research Amundsen Sea West Antarctica The Cryosphere 14 4 1245 1258 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
op_collection_id |
ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
description |
The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high-resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice-shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialization, we perform three further sets of CMIP5-forced experiments using different parameterizations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialization procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice-shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between -0.02 and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Golledge, Nicholas R. Bingham, Rory J. |
spellingShingle |
Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Golledge, Nicholas R. Bingham, Rory J. Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
author_facet |
Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. Nias, Isabel J. Payne, Antony J. Golledge, Nicholas R. Bingham, Rory J. |
author_sort |
Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. |
title |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_short |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_full |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_fullStr |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 |
title_sort |
ocean-forced evolution of the amundsen sea catchment, west antarctica, by 2100 |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/8a495b14-bf8e-460b-9804-16c025754d3b https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/8a495b14-bf8e-460b-9804-16c025754d3b https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/ws/files/240693679/Full_text_PDF_final_published_version_.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85083855289&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea West Antarctica |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf West Antarctica |
op_source |
Alevropoulos-Borrill , A V , Nias , I J , Payne , A J , Golledge , N R & Bingham , R J 2020 , ' Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 ' , Cryosphere , vol. 14 , no. 4 , pp. 1245-1258 . https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 |
op_relation |
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/8a495b14-bf8e-460b-9804-16c025754d3b |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1245 |
op_container_end_page |
1258 |
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1798838017579810816 |