Exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet
Computational modeling of Earth system processes often requires simplifying assumptions of the real system. These necessary assumptions result in the definition of internal model parameters that can take a number of different values but must be explicitly defined for any one model simulation. The ma...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface |
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Language: | English |
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2012
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/870eb3a9-b3d0-4106-9cd5-4f716277b5b5 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/870eb3a9-b3d0-4106-9cd5-4f716277b5b5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002067 |
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/870eb3a9-b3d0-4106-9cd5-4f716277b5b5 2024-01-28T10:06:08+01:00 Exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet Fitzgerald, P. W. Bamber, J. L. Ridley, J. K. Rougier, J. C. 2012-03-08 https://hdl.handle.net/1983/870eb3a9-b3d0-4106-9cd5-4f716277b5b5 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/870eb3a9-b3d0-4106-9cd5-4f716277b5b5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002067 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Fitzgerald , P W , Bamber , J L , Ridley , J K & Rougier , J C 2012 , ' Exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet ' , Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface , vol. 117 , F01021 , pp. - . https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002067 article 2012 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002067 2024-01-04T23:38:37Z Computational modeling of Earth system processes often requires simplifying assumptions of the real system. These necessary assumptions result in the definition of internal model parameters that can take a number of different values but must be explicitly defined for any one model simulation. The main issue with such an uncertain multidimensional input space is that many simulations are needed to adequately explore it. This study presents a generalized parameter screening experiment for use in future earth system modeling. This approach identifies model parameters that dominate uncertainty, therefore reducing to a manageable number the simulations required to explore the input space. The approach we adopt is relatively inexpensive to implement and can be applied at both the aggregate and disaggregate (e. g., regional) level. To demonstrate the potential of such a method, it is applied to a surface mass balance model of intermediate complexity over the Greenland ice sheet. All identified parameters were related to the surface melt parameterization, with albedo parameters being identified as the most important. Spatial distributions of the parameter sensitivities show that, in recent years, most parameter sensitivities are concentrated around the southwest and northern ice sheet margins. Simulations for the 21st century indicate an increase in sensitivity in these high melt areas especially in the northeast. Melt contributions from temperature and radiative effects are shown to be important on the order of parameters identified, and as a consequence, sensitivities are dependent on the present climate used for modeling surface mass balance. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet University of Bristol: Bristol Research Greenland Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 117 F1 n/a n/a |
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Open Polar |
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University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
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ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
description |
Computational modeling of Earth system processes often requires simplifying assumptions of the real system. These necessary assumptions result in the definition of internal model parameters that can take a number of different values but must be explicitly defined for any one model simulation. The main issue with such an uncertain multidimensional input space is that many simulations are needed to adequately explore it. This study presents a generalized parameter screening experiment for use in future earth system modeling. This approach identifies model parameters that dominate uncertainty, therefore reducing to a manageable number the simulations required to explore the input space. The approach we adopt is relatively inexpensive to implement and can be applied at both the aggregate and disaggregate (e. g., regional) level. To demonstrate the potential of such a method, it is applied to a surface mass balance model of intermediate complexity over the Greenland ice sheet. All identified parameters were related to the surface melt parameterization, with albedo parameters being identified as the most important. Spatial distributions of the parameter sensitivities show that, in recent years, most parameter sensitivities are concentrated around the southwest and northern ice sheet margins. Simulations for the 21st century indicate an increase in sensitivity in these high melt areas especially in the northeast. Melt contributions from temperature and radiative effects are shown to be important on the order of parameters identified, and as a consequence, sensitivities are dependent on the present climate used for modeling surface mass balance. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fitzgerald, P. W. Bamber, J. L. Ridley, J. K. Rougier, J. C. |
spellingShingle |
Fitzgerald, P. W. Bamber, J. L. Ridley, J. K. Rougier, J. C. Exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet |
author_facet |
Fitzgerald, P. W. Bamber, J. L. Ridley, J. K. Rougier, J. C. |
author_sort |
Fitzgerald, P. W. |
title |
Exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet |
title_short |
Exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full |
Exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet |
title_fullStr |
Exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet |
title_sort |
exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the greenland ice sheet |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/870eb3a9-b3d0-4106-9cd5-4f716277b5b5 https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/870eb3a9-b3d0-4106-9cd5-4f716277b5b5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002067 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Fitzgerald , P W , Bamber , J L , Ridley , J K & Rougier , J C 2012 , ' Exploration of parametric uncertainty in a surface mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet ' , Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface , vol. 117 , F01021 , pp. - . https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002067 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002067 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface |
container_volume |
117 |
container_issue |
F1 |
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n/a |
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1789332820233027584 |