Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach
The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy deman...
Published in: | Meteorological Applications |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/4a47fddf-6b29-4099-98c4-c608a21e670c https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/4a47fddf-6b29-4099-98c4-c608a21e670c https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 |
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/4a47fddf-6b29-4099-98c4-c608a21e670c 2023-12-17T10:31:02+01:00 Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach Otero, Noelia Martius, Olivia Allen, Sam Bloomfield, Hannah Schaefli, Bettina 2022-09-13 https://hdl.handle.net/1983/4a47fddf-6b29-4099-98c4-c608a21e670c https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/4a47fddf-6b29-4099-98c4-c608a21e670c https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Otero , N , Martius , O , Allen , S , Bloomfield , H & Schaefli , B 2022 , ' Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach ' , Meteorological Applications , vol. 29 , no. 5 , e2089 . https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 article 2022 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 2023-11-23T23:32:31Z The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy demand and supply becomes a great challenge. We characterize energy compound events, defined as periods of simultaneous low renewable production of wind and solar power, and high electricity demand. Using a logistic regression approach, we examine the influence of meteorological and atmospheric drivers on energy compound events. Moreover, we assess the spatial coherence of energy compound events that pose a major challenge within an interconnected power grid, as they can affect multiple countries simultaneously. On average, European countries are exposed to winter energy compound events more than twice per year. The combination of extremely low temperatures and low wind speeds is associated with a higher probability of occurrence of energy compound events. Furthermore, we show that blocked weather regimes have a major influence on energy compound events. In particular, Greenland and European blocking lead to widespread energy compound events that affect multiple countries at the same time. Our results highlight the relevance of weather regimes resulting in synchronous spatial energy compound events, which might pose a greater risk within a potential fully interconnected European grid. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland University of Bristol: Bristol Research Greenland Meteorological Applications 29 5 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
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ftubristolcris |
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English |
description |
The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy demand and supply becomes a great challenge. We characterize energy compound events, defined as periods of simultaneous low renewable production of wind and solar power, and high electricity demand. Using a logistic regression approach, we examine the influence of meteorological and atmospheric drivers on energy compound events. Moreover, we assess the spatial coherence of energy compound events that pose a major challenge within an interconnected power grid, as they can affect multiple countries simultaneously. On average, European countries are exposed to winter energy compound events more than twice per year. The combination of extremely low temperatures and low wind speeds is associated with a higher probability of occurrence of energy compound events. Furthermore, we show that blocked weather regimes have a major influence on energy compound events. In particular, Greenland and European blocking lead to widespread energy compound events that affect multiple countries at the same time. Our results highlight the relevance of weather regimes resulting in synchronous spatial energy compound events, which might pose a greater risk within a potential fully interconnected European grid. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Otero, Noelia Martius, Olivia Allen, Sam Bloomfield, Hannah Schaefli, Bettina |
spellingShingle |
Otero, Noelia Martius, Olivia Allen, Sam Bloomfield, Hannah Schaefli, Bettina Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach |
author_facet |
Otero, Noelia Martius, Olivia Allen, Sam Bloomfield, Hannah Schaefli, Bettina |
author_sort |
Otero, Noelia |
title |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach |
title_short |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach |
title_full |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach |
title_fullStr |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach |
title_sort |
characterizing renewable energy compound events across europe using a logistic regression-based approach |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/4a47fddf-6b29-4099-98c4-c608a21e670c https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/4a47fddf-6b29-4099-98c4-c608a21e670c https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland |
genre_facet |
Greenland |
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Otero , N , Martius , O , Allen , S , Bloomfield , H & Schaefli , B 2022 , ' Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression-based approach ' , Meteorological Applications , vol. 29 , no. 5 , e2089 . https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 |
container_title |
Meteorological Applications |
container_volume |
29 |
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5 |
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1785584181016788992 |