Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations
Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow mode...
Published in: | Journal of Glaciology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/427dd18f-6559-48ea-8e4f-4f5e717d074c https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/427dd18f-6559-48ea-8e4f-4f5e717d074c https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 |
id |
ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/427dd18f-6559-48ea-8e4f-4f5e717d074c |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/427dd18f-6559-48ea-8e4f-4f5e717d074c 2024-05-12T08:04:00+00:00 Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations Goelzer, Heiko Huybrechts, Philippe Fürst, Johannes Nick, Faezeh M. Andersen, M.L. Edwards, Tamsin L Fettweis, Xavier Payne, A J Shannon, Sarah R 2013-08-01 https://hdl.handle.net/1983/427dd18f-6559-48ea-8e4f-4f5e717d074c https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/427dd18f-6559-48ea-8e4f-4f5e717d074c https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 eng eng https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/427dd18f-6559-48ea-8e4f-4f5e717d074c info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Goelzer , H , Huybrechts , P , Fürst , J , Nick , F M , Andersen , M L , Edwards , T L , Fettweis , X , Payne , A J & Shannon , S R 2013 , ' Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations ' , Journal of Glaciology , vol. 59 , no. 216 , pp. 733-749 . https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 article 2013 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 2024-04-17T14:15:14Z Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6–18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14–31% higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology University of Bristol: Bristol Research Greenland Journal of Glaciology 59 216 733 749 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
op_collection_id |
ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
description |
Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6–18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14–31% higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goelzer, Heiko Huybrechts, Philippe Fürst, Johannes Nick, Faezeh M. Andersen, M.L. Edwards, Tamsin L Fettweis, Xavier Payne, A J Shannon, Sarah R |
spellingShingle |
Goelzer, Heiko Huybrechts, Philippe Fürst, Johannes Nick, Faezeh M. Andersen, M.L. Edwards, Tamsin L Fettweis, Xavier Payne, A J Shannon, Sarah R Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
author_facet |
Goelzer, Heiko Huybrechts, Philippe Fürst, Johannes Nick, Faezeh M. Andersen, M.L. Edwards, Tamsin L Fettweis, Xavier Payne, A J Shannon, Sarah R |
author_sort |
Goelzer, Heiko |
title |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_short |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_full |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_sort |
sensitivity of greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/427dd18f-6559-48ea-8e4f-4f5e717d074c https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/427dd18f-6559-48ea-8e4f-4f5e717d074c https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Goelzer , H , Huybrechts , P , Fürst , J , Nick , F M , Andersen , M L , Edwards , T L , Fettweis , X , Payne , A J & Shannon , S R 2013 , ' Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations ' , Journal of Glaciology , vol. 59 , no. 216 , pp. 733-749 . https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 |
op_relation |
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/427dd18f-6559-48ea-8e4f-4f5e717d074c |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
59 |
container_issue |
216 |
container_start_page |
733 |
op_container_end_page |
749 |
_version_ |
1798846131483967488 |