Determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption
The April–May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large improv...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1983/1914714b-c627-4089-933c-fb7e76120e3d https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/1914714b-c627-4089-933c-fb7e76120e3d https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 |
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ftubristolcris:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:publications/1914714b-c627-4089-933c-fb7e76120e3d 2024-04-28T08:18:14+00:00 Determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption Stohl, A Prata, AJ Eckhardt, S Clarisse, L Durant, Adam Henne, S Kristiansen, N Minikin, A Schumann, U Seibert, P Stebel, K Thomas, Helen Thorsteinsson, T Tørseth, K Weinzierl, B 2011-05-11 https://hdl.handle.net/1983/1914714b-c627-4089-933c-fb7e76120e3d https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/1914714b-c627-4089-933c-fb7e76120e3d https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 eng eng https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/1914714b-c627-4089-933c-fb7e76120e3d info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Stohl , A , Prata , AJ , Eckhardt , S , Clarisse , L , Durant , A , Henne , S , Kristiansen , N , Minikin , A , Schumann , U , Seibert , P , Stebel , K , Thomas , H , Thorsteinsson , T , Tørseth , K & Weinzierl , B 2011 , ' Determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption ' , Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics . https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 article 2011 ftubristolcris https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 2024-04-09T23:58:07Z The April–May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3 ± 4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8–28 μm diameter. We evaluate the results of our model results with a posteriori ash emissions using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "Normal" flying zone in up to 14 % (6–16 %), 2 % (1–3 %) and 7 % (4–11 %), respectively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m−3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5 % (0.2–2.8 %) and 0.9 % (0.1–1.6 %) occurred, while the current "No-Fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m−3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system. Article in Journal/Newspaper Eyjafjallajökull Iceland University of Bristol: Bristol Research Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11 9 4333 4351 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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University of Bristol: Bristol Research |
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ftubristolcris |
language |
English |
description |
The April–May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3 ± 4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8–28 μm diameter. We evaluate the results of our model results with a posteriori ash emissions using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "Normal" flying zone in up to 14 % (6–16 %), 2 % (1–3 %) and 7 % (4–11 %), respectively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m−3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5 % (0.2–2.8 %) and 0.9 % (0.1–1.6 %) occurred, while the current "No-Fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m−3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Stohl, A Prata, AJ Eckhardt, S Clarisse, L Durant, Adam Henne, S Kristiansen, N Minikin, A Schumann, U Seibert, P Stebel, K Thomas, Helen Thorsteinsson, T Tørseth, K Weinzierl, B |
spellingShingle |
Stohl, A Prata, AJ Eckhardt, S Clarisse, L Durant, Adam Henne, S Kristiansen, N Minikin, A Schumann, U Seibert, P Stebel, K Thomas, Helen Thorsteinsson, T Tørseth, K Weinzierl, B Determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
author_facet |
Stohl, A Prata, AJ Eckhardt, S Clarisse, L Durant, Adam Henne, S Kristiansen, N Minikin, A Schumann, U Seibert, P Stebel, K Thomas, Helen Thorsteinsson, T Tørseth, K Weinzierl, B |
author_sort |
Stohl, A |
title |
Determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
title_short |
Determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
title_full |
Determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
title_fullStr |
Determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
title_full_unstemmed |
Determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
title_sort |
determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 eyjafjallajökull eruption |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1983/1914714b-c627-4089-933c-fb7e76120e3d https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/1914714b-c627-4089-933c-fb7e76120e3d https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 |
genre |
Eyjafjallajökull Iceland |
genre_facet |
Eyjafjallajökull Iceland |
op_source |
Stohl , A , Prata , AJ , Eckhardt , S , Clarisse , L , Durant , A , Henne , S , Kristiansen , N , Minikin , A , Schumann , U , Seibert , P , Stebel , K , Thomas , H , Thorsteinsson , T , Tørseth , K & Weinzierl , B 2011 , ' Determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption ' , Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics . https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 |
op_relation |
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/1914714b-c627-4089-933c-fb7e76120e3d |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
4333 |
op_container_end_page |
4351 |
_version_ |
1797582343285768192 |