Reply to comment on 'On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming'
In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correl...
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ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:61920 2024-02-11T10:06:35+01:00 Reply to comment on 'On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming' Caesar, Levke (Dr.) Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof. Dr.) Feulner, Georg (Dr. rer. nat.) 2021-02-26 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/61920 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/61920 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess ddc:530 Institut für Physik und Astronomie article doc-type:article 2021 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 2024-01-21T23:35:13Z In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: first, C&T claim that our analysis is based on 'established evidence' that was only true for preindustrial conditions-this is not the case. Using data from the modern period (1947-2012), we show that the established understanding (i.e. deep-water formation in the North Atlantic cools the deep ocean and warms the surface) is correct, but our analysis is not based on this fact. Secondly, C&T claim that our results are based on a statistical analysis of only one cycle of data which was furthermore incorrectly detrended. This, too, is not true. Our conclusion that a weaker AMOC delays the current surface warming rather than enhances it, is based on several independent lines of evidence. The data we show to support this covers more than one cycle and the detrending (which was performed to avoid spurious correlations due to a common trend) does not affect our conclusion: the correlation between AMOC strength and GMST is positive. We do not claim that this is strong evidence that the two time series are in phase, but rather that this means that the two time series are not anti-correlated. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of Potsdam: publish.UP Environmental Research Letters 16 3 038002 |
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ddc:530 Institut für Physik und Astronomie Caesar, Levke (Dr.) Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof. Dr.) Feulner, Georg (Dr. rer. nat.) Reply to comment on 'On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming' |
topic_facet |
ddc:530 Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
description |
In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: first, C&T claim that our analysis is based on 'established evidence' that was only true for preindustrial conditions-this is not the case. Using data from the modern period (1947-2012), we show that the established understanding (i.e. deep-water formation in the North Atlantic cools the deep ocean and warms the surface) is correct, but our analysis is not based on this fact. Secondly, C&T claim that our results are based on a statistical analysis of only one cycle of data which was furthermore incorrectly detrended. This, too, is not true. Our conclusion that a weaker AMOC delays the current surface warming rather than enhances it, is based on several independent lines of evidence. The data we show to support this covers more than one cycle and the detrending (which was performed to avoid spurious correlations due to a common trend) does not affect our conclusion: the correlation between AMOC strength and GMST is positive. We do not claim that this is strong evidence that the two time series are in phase, but rather that this means that the two time series are not anti-correlated. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Caesar, Levke (Dr.) Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof. Dr.) Feulner, Georg (Dr. rer. nat.) |
author_facet |
Caesar, Levke (Dr.) Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof. Dr.) Feulner, Georg (Dr. rer. nat.) |
author_sort |
Caesar, Levke (Dr.) |
title |
Reply to comment on 'On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming' |
title_short |
Reply to comment on 'On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming' |
title_full |
Reply to comment on 'On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming' |
title_fullStr |
Reply to comment on 'On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming' |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reply to comment on 'On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming' |
title_sort |
reply to comment on 'on the relationship between atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming' |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/61920 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/61920 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
038002 |
_version_ |
1790604387807133696 |