Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global...
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ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:61208 2023-12-10T09:39:13+01:00 Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice Wunderling, Nico (Dr.) Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan Friedemann (Dr.) Winkelmann, Ricarda 2020-10-27 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/61208 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/61208 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess ddc:530 Institut für Physik und Astronomie article doc-type:article 2020 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 2023-11-12T23:35:12Z Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice West Antarctica University of Potsdam: publish.UP Arctic Antarctic West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet Greenland Nature Communications 11 1 |
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University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
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language |
English |
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ddc:530 Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
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ddc:530 Institut für Physik und Astronomie Wunderling, Nico (Dr.) Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan Friedemann (Dr.) Winkelmann, Ricarda Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
topic_facet |
ddc:530 Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
description |
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wunderling, Nico (Dr.) Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan Friedemann (Dr.) Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_facet |
Wunderling, Nico (Dr.) Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan Friedemann (Dr.) Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_sort |
Wunderling, Nico (Dr.) |
title |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_short |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_full |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_sort |
global warming due to loss of large ice masses and arctic summer sea ice |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/61208 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet Greenland |
genre |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice West Antarctica |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/61208 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1784902566935527424 |