Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond
We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more co...
Published in: | Earth's Future |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/60812 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 |
id |
ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:60812 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:60812 2024-04-28T08:01:50+00:00 Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond Palmer, Matthew D. Gregory, Jonathan Bagge, Meike Calvert, Daley Hagedoorn, Jan Marius Howard, Tom Klemann, Volker Lowe, Jason A. Roberts, Chris Slangen, Aimee B. A. Spada, Giorgio 2020-06-18 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/60812 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/60812 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess ddc:550 Institut für Geowissenschaften article doc-type:article 2020 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 2024-04-03T14:00:42Z We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic University of Potsdam: publish.UP Earth's Future 8 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
op_collection_id |
ftubpotsdam |
language |
English |
topic |
ddc:550 Institut für Geowissenschaften |
spellingShingle |
ddc:550 Institut für Geowissenschaften Palmer, Matthew D. Gregory, Jonathan Bagge, Meike Calvert, Daley Hagedoorn, Jan Marius Howard, Tom Klemann, Volker Lowe, Jason A. Roberts, Chris Slangen, Aimee B. A. Spada, Giorgio Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond |
topic_facet |
ddc:550 Institut für Geowissenschaften |
description |
We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Palmer, Matthew D. Gregory, Jonathan Bagge, Meike Calvert, Daley Hagedoorn, Jan Marius Howard, Tom Klemann, Volker Lowe, Jason A. Roberts, Chris Slangen, Aimee B. A. Spada, Giorgio |
author_facet |
Palmer, Matthew D. Gregory, Jonathan Bagge, Meike Calvert, Daley Hagedoorn, Jan Marius Howard, Tom Klemann, Volker Lowe, Jason A. Roberts, Chris Slangen, Aimee B. A. Spada, Giorgio |
author_sort |
Palmer, Matthew D. |
title |
Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond |
title_short |
Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond |
title_full |
Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond |
title_fullStr |
Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond |
title_sort |
exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/60812 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/60812 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
9 |
_version_ |
1797573411535323136 |