Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by a...
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ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:53043 2023-05-15T17:33:25+02:00 Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation Caesar, Levke (Dr.) Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof.) Robinson, Alexander Feulner, Georg (Dr.) Saba, V. 2018-04-11 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/53043 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/53043 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess ddc:550 Institut für Geowissenschaften article doc-type:article 2018 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 2022-07-28T20:51:08Z The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of Potsdam: publish.UP Nature 556 7700 191 196 |
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University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
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English |
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ddc:550 Institut für Geowissenschaften |
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ddc:550 Institut für Geowissenschaften Caesar, Levke (Dr.) Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof.) Robinson, Alexander Feulner, Georg (Dr.) Saba, V. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
topic_facet |
ddc:550 Institut für Geowissenschaften |
description |
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Caesar, Levke (Dr.) Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof.) Robinson, Alexander Feulner, Georg (Dr.) Saba, V. |
author_facet |
Caesar, Levke (Dr.) Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof.) Robinson, Alexander Feulner, Georg (Dr.) Saba, V. |
author_sort |
Caesar, Levke (Dr.) |
title |
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
title_short |
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
title_full |
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
title_fullStr |
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation |
title_sort |
observed fingerprint of a weakening atlantic ocean overturning circulation |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/53043 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/53043 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
556 |
container_issue |
7700 |
container_start_page |
191 |
op_container_end_page |
196 |
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1766131919839297536 |