Nichtlineare Dynamiken und Interaktionen von Kippelementen im Erdsystem
With ongoing anthropogenic global warming, some of the most vulnerable components of the Earth system might become unstable and undergo a critical transition. These subsystems are the so-called tipping elements. They are believed to exhibit threshold behaviour and would, if triggered, result in seve...
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ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:52514 2024-05-19T07:36:46+00:00 Nichtlineare Dynamiken und Interaktionen von Kippelementen im Erdsystem Nonlinear dynamics and interactions of tipping elements in the Earth system Wunderling, Nico (Dr.) 2021-11-16 application/pdf https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/52514 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525140 https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-52514 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/files/52514/wunderling_diss.pdf eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/52514 urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525140 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525140 https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-52514 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/files/52514/wunderling_diss.pdf https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess ddc:500 Institut für Physik und Astronomie doctoralthesis doc-type:doctoralThesis 2021 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-52514 2024-04-23T23:32:43Z With ongoing anthropogenic global warming, some of the most vulnerable components of the Earth system might become unstable and undergo a critical transition. These subsystems are the so-called tipping elements. They are believed to exhibit threshold behaviour and would, if triggered, result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. Furthermore, it has been shown that climate tipping elements are not isolated entities, but interact across the entire Earth system. Therefore, this thesis aims at mapping out the potential for tipping events and feedbacks in the Earth system mainly by the use of complex dynamical systems and network science approaches, but partially also by more detailed process-based models of the Earth system. In the first part of this thesis, the theoretical foundations are laid by the investigation of networks of interacting tipping elements. For this purpose, the conditions for the emergence of global cascades are analysed against the structure of paradigmatic network types such as Erdös-Rényi, Barabási-Albert, Watts-Strogatz and explicitly spatially embedded networks. Furthermore, micro-scale structures are detected that are decisive for the transition of local to global cascades. These so-called motifs link the micro- to the macro-scale in the network of tipping elements. Alongside a model description paper, all these results are entered into the Python software package PyCascades, which is publicly available on github. In the second part of this dissertation, the tipping element framework is first applied to components of the Earth system such as the cryosphere and to parts of the biosphere. Afterwards it is applied to a set of interacting climate tipping elements on a global scale. Using the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) CLIMBER-2, the temperature feedbacks are quantified, which would arise if some of the large cryosphere elements disintegrate over a long span of time. The cryosphere components that are investigated are the Arctic summer sea ice, ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis Arctic Global warming Sea ice University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
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Open Polar |
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University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
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ftubpotsdam |
language |
English |
topic |
ddc:500 Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
spellingShingle |
ddc:500 Institut für Physik und Astronomie Wunderling, Nico (Dr.) Nichtlineare Dynamiken und Interaktionen von Kippelementen im Erdsystem |
topic_facet |
ddc:500 Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
description |
With ongoing anthropogenic global warming, some of the most vulnerable components of the Earth system might become unstable and undergo a critical transition. These subsystems are the so-called tipping elements. They are believed to exhibit threshold behaviour and would, if triggered, result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. Furthermore, it has been shown that climate tipping elements are not isolated entities, but interact across the entire Earth system. Therefore, this thesis aims at mapping out the potential for tipping events and feedbacks in the Earth system mainly by the use of complex dynamical systems and network science approaches, but partially also by more detailed process-based models of the Earth system. In the first part of this thesis, the theoretical foundations are laid by the investigation of networks of interacting tipping elements. For this purpose, the conditions for the emergence of global cascades are analysed against the structure of paradigmatic network types such as Erdös-Rényi, Barabási-Albert, Watts-Strogatz and explicitly spatially embedded networks. Furthermore, micro-scale structures are detected that are decisive for the transition of local to global cascades. These so-called motifs link the micro- to the macro-scale in the network of tipping elements. Alongside a model description paper, all these results are entered into the Python software package PyCascades, which is publicly available on github. In the second part of this dissertation, the tipping element framework is first applied to components of the Earth system such as the cryosphere and to parts of the biosphere. Afterwards it is applied to a set of interacting climate tipping elements on a global scale. Using the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) CLIMBER-2, the temperature feedbacks are quantified, which would arise if some of the large cryosphere elements disintegrate over a long span of time. The cryosphere components that are investigated are the Arctic summer sea ice, ... |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Wunderling, Nico (Dr.) |
author_facet |
Wunderling, Nico (Dr.) |
author_sort |
Wunderling, Nico (Dr.) |
title |
Nichtlineare Dynamiken und Interaktionen von Kippelementen im Erdsystem |
title_short |
Nichtlineare Dynamiken und Interaktionen von Kippelementen im Erdsystem |
title_full |
Nichtlineare Dynamiken und Interaktionen von Kippelementen im Erdsystem |
title_fullStr |
Nichtlineare Dynamiken und Interaktionen von Kippelementen im Erdsystem |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nichtlineare Dynamiken und Interaktionen von Kippelementen im Erdsystem |
title_sort |
nichtlineare dynamiken und interaktionen von kippelementen im erdsystem |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/52514 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525140 https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-52514 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/files/52514/wunderling_diss.pdf |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/52514 urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525140 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525140 https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-52514 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/files/52514/wunderling_diss.pdf |
op_rights |
https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-52514 |
_version_ |
1799475906963570688 |