Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events
Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can...
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ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:51807 2023-05-15T14:56:05+02:00 Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof. Dr.) Kornhuber, Kai (Dr.) Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan (Dr.) Coumou, Dim (Prof. Dr.) 2018 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/51807 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/51807 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess CC-BY Institut für Physik und Astronomie article doc-type:article 2018 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 2022-08-21T22:36:44Z Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic University of Potsdam: publish.UP Arctic Science Advances 4 10 eaat3272 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
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ftubpotsdam |
language |
English |
topic |
Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
spellingShingle |
Institut für Physik und Astronomie Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof. Dr.) Kornhuber, Kai (Dr.) Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan (Dr.) Coumou, Dim (Prof. Dr.) Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events |
topic_facet |
Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
description |
Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof. Dr.) Kornhuber, Kai (Dr.) Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan (Dr.) Coumou, Dim (Prof. Dr.) |
author_facet |
Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan (Prof. Dr.) Kornhuber, Kai (Dr.) Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan (Dr.) Coumou, Dim (Prof. Dr.) |
author_sort |
Mann, Michael E. |
title |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events |
title_short |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events |
title_full |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events |
title_fullStr |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events |
title_sort |
projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/51807 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/51807 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 |
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Science Advances |
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4 |
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10 |
container_start_page |
eaat3272 |
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1766328120243126272 |