Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia - a genetic and simulation-based study
A strong temperature increase in the Arctic is expected to lead to latitudinal treeline shift. This tundra-taiga turnover would cause a positive vegetation-climate feedback due to albedo decrease. However, reliable estimates of tree migration rates are currently lacking due to the complex processes...
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ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:49922 2023-12-17T10:17:58+01:00 Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia - a genetic and simulation-based study Kruse, Stefan (Dr. rer. nat.) Gerdes, Alexander Kath, Nadja J. Epp, Laura Saskia Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna Herzschuh, Ulrike (Prof. Dr.) 2019-03-22 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/49922 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019 eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/49922 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess ddc:550 ddc:570 Institut für Biochemie und Biologie article doc-type:article 2019 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019 2023-11-19T23:35:12Z A strong temperature increase in the Arctic is expected to lead to latitudinal treeline shift. This tundra-taiga turnover would cause a positive vegetation-climate feedback due to albedo decrease. However, reliable estimates of tree migration rates are currently lacking due to the complex processes involved in forest establishment, which depend strongly on seed dispersal. We aim to fill this gap using LAVESI, an individual-based and spatially explicit Larix vegetation simulator. LAVESI was designed to simulate plots within homogeneous forests. Here, we improve the implementation of the seed dispersal function via field-based investigations. We inferred the effective seed dispersal distances of a typical open-forest stand on the southern Taymyr Peninsula (northern central Siberia) from genetic parentage analysis using eight nuclear microsatellite markers. The parentage analysis gives effective seed dispersal distances (median similar to 10 m) close to the seed parents. A comparison between simulated and observed effective seed dispersal distances reveals an overestimation of recruits close to the releasing tree and a shorter dispersal distance generally. We thus adapted our model and used the newly parameterised version to simulate south-to-north transects; a slow-moving treeline front was revealed. The colonisation of the tundra areas was assisted by occasional long-distance seed dispersal events beyond the treeline area. The treeline (similar to 1 tree ha(-1)) advanced by similar to 1.6 m yr(-1), whereas the forest line (similar to 100 trees ha(-1)) advanced by only similar to 0.6 m yr(-1). We conclude that the treeline in northern central Siberia currently lags behind the current strong warming and will continue to lag in the near future. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic taiga Taymyr Taymyr Peninsula Tundra Siberia University of Potsdam: publish.UP Arctic Taymyr ENVELOPE(89.987,89.987,68.219,68.219) Biogeosciences 16 6 1211 1224 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
op_collection_id |
ftubpotsdam |
language |
English |
topic |
ddc:550 ddc:570 Institut für Biochemie und Biologie |
spellingShingle |
ddc:550 ddc:570 Institut für Biochemie und Biologie Kruse, Stefan (Dr. rer. nat.) Gerdes, Alexander Kath, Nadja J. Epp, Laura Saskia Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna Herzschuh, Ulrike (Prof. Dr.) Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia - a genetic and simulation-based study |
topic_facet |
ddc:550 ddc:570 Institut für Biochemie und Biologie |
description |
A strong temperature increase in the Arctic is expected to lead to latitudinal treeline shift. This tundra-taiga turnover would cause a positive vegetation-climate feedback due to albedo decrease. However, reliable estimates of tree migration rates are currently lacking due to the complex processes involved in forest establishment, which depend strongly on seed dispersal. We aim to fill this gap using LAVESI, an individual-based and spatially explicit Larix vegetation simulator. LAVESI was designed to simulate plots within homogeneous forests. Here, we improve the implementation of the seed dispersal function via field-based investigations. We inferred the effective seed dispersal distances of a typical open-forest stand on the southern Taymyr Peninsula (northern central Siberia) from genetic parentage analysis using eight nuclear microsatellite markers. The parentage analysis gives effective seed dispersal distances (median similar to 10 m) close to the seed parents. A comparison between simulated and observed effective seed dispersal distances reveals an overestimation of recruits close to the releasing tree and a shorter dispersal distance generally. We thus adapted our model and used the newly parameterised version to simulate south-to-north transects; a slow-moving treeline front was revealed. The colonisation of the tundra areas was assisted by occasional long-distance seed dispersal events beyond the treeline area. The treeline (similar to 1 tree ha(-1)) advanced by similar to 1.6 m yr(-1), whereas the forest line (similar to 100 trees ha(-1)) advanced by only similar to 0.6 m yr(-1). We conclude that the treeline in northern central Siberia currently lags behind the current strong warming and will continue to lag in the near future. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kruse, Stefan (Dr. rer. nat.) Gerdes, Alexander Kath, Nadja J. Epp, Laura Saskia Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna Herzschuh, Ulrike (Prof. Dr.) |
author_facet |
Kruse, Stefan (Dr. rer. nat.) Gerdes, Alexander Kath, Nadja J. Epp, Laura Saskia Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna Herzschuh, Ulrike (Prof. Dr.) |
author_sort |
Kruse, Stefan (Dr. rer. nat.) |
title |
Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia - a genetic and simulation-based study |
title_short |
Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia - a genetic and simulation-based study |
title_full |
Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia - a genetic and simulation-based study |
title_fullStr |
Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia - a genetic and simulation-based study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia - a genetic and simulation-based study |
title_sort |
dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in siberia - a genetic and simulation-based study |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/49922 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(89.987,89.987,68.219,68.219) |
geographic |
Arctic Taymyr |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Taymyr |
genre |
albedo Arctic taiga Taymyr Taymyr Peninsula Tundra Siberia |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic taiga Taymyr Taymyr Peninsula Tundra Siberia |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/49922 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019 |
container_title |
Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1211 |
op_container_end_page |
1224 |
_version_ |
1785530210924363776 |