Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation
Strong waves in the mid-latitude circulation have been linked to extreme surface weather and thus changes in waviness could have serious consequences for society. Several theories have been proposed which could alter waviness, including tropical sea surface temperature anomalies or rapid climate cha...
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ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:44991 2023-05-15T15:09:46+02:00 Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation Di Capua, Giorgia Coumou, Dim 2016 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/44991 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028 eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/44991 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028 info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Institut für Geowissenschaften article doc-type:article 2016 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028 2022-07-28T20:48:40Z Strong waves in the mid-latitude circulation have been linked to extreme surface weather and thus changes in waviness could have serious consequences for society. Several theories have been proposed which could alter waviness, including tropical sea surface temperature anomalies or rapid climate change in the Arctic. However, so far it remains unclear whether any changes in waviness have actually occurred. Here we propose a novel meandering index which captures the maximum waviness in geopotential height contours at any given day, using all information of the full spatial position of each contour. Data are analysed on different time scale (from daily to 11 day running means) and both on hemispheric and regional scales. Using quantile regressions, we analyse how seasonal distributions of this index have changed over 1979-2015. The most robust changes are detected for autumn which has seen a pronounced increase in strongly meandering patterns at the hemispheric level as well as over the Eurasian sector. In summer for both the hemisphere and the Eurasian sector, significant downward trends in meandering are detected on daily timescales which is consistent with the recently reported decrease in summer storm track activity. The American sector shows the strongest increase in meandering in the warm season: in particular for 11 day running mean data, indicating enhanced amplitudes of quasi-stationary waves. Our findings have implications for both the occurrence of recent cold spells and persistent heat waves in the mid-latitudes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change University of Potsdam: publish.UP Arctic Environmental Research Letters 11 9 094028 |
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University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
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ftubpotsdam |
language |
English |
topic |
Institut für Geowissenschaften |
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Institut für Geowissenschaften Di Capua, Giorgia Coumou, Dim Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation |
topic_facet |
Institut für Geowissenschaften |
description |
Strong waves in the mid-latitude circulation have been linked to extreme surface weather and thus changes in waviness could have serious consequences for society. Several theories have been proposed which could alter waviness, including tropical sea surface temperature anomalies or rapid climate change in the Arctic. However, so far it remains unclear whether any changes in waviness have actually occurred. Here we propose a novel meandering index which captures the maximum waviness in geopotential height contours at any given day, using all information of the full spatial position of each contour. Data are analysed on different time scale (from daily to 11 day running means) and both on hemispheric and regional scales. Using quantile regressions, we analyse how seasonal distributions of this index have changed over 1979-2015. The most robust changes are detected for autumn which has seen a pronounced increase in strongly meandering patterns at the hemispheric level as well as over the Eurasian sector. In summer for both the hemisphere and the Eurasian sector, significant downward trends in meandering are detected on daily timescales which is consistent with the recently reported decrease in summer storm track activity. The American sector shows the strongest increase in meandering in the warm season: in particular for 11 day running mean data, indicating enhanced amplitudes of quasi-stationary waves. Our findings have implications for both the occurrence of recent cold spells and persistent heat waves in the mid-latitudes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Di Capua, Giorgia Coumou, Dim |
author_facet |
Di Capua, Giorgia Coumou, Dim |
author_sort |
Di Capua, Giorgia |
title |
Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation |
title_short |
Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation |
title_full |
Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation |
title_fullStr |
Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation |
title_sort |
changes in meandering of the northern hemisphere circulation |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/44991 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/44991 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
094028 |
_version_ |
1766340892088598528 |