A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives
Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results o...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/41803 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418030 https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-41803 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/files/41803/pmnr641.pdf |
id |
ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:41803 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:41803 2023-05-15T16:29:33+02:00 A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha (Dr.) Ghil, Michael 2019-02-21 application/pdf https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/41803 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418030 https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-41803 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/files/41803/pmnr641.pdf eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/41803 urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418030 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418030 https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-41803 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/files/41803/pmnr641.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY ddc:550 Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät postprint doc-type:article 2019 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-41803 2022-08-21T22:35:22Z Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project ice core NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project University of Potsdam: publish.UP Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
op_collection_id |
ftubpotsdam |
language |
English |
topic |
ddc:550 Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät |
spellingShingle |
ddc:550 Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha (Dr.) Ghil, Michael A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
topic_facet |
ddc:550 Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät |
description |
Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha (Dr.) Ghil, Michael |
author_facet |
Boers, Niklas Goswami, Bedartha (Dr.) Ghil, Michael |
author_sort |
Boers, Niklas |
title |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_short |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_full |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_fullStr |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_full_unstemmed |
A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
title_sort |
complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/41803 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418030 https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-41803 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/files/41803/pmnr641.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project ice core NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project ice core NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/41803 urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418030 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418030 https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-41803 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/files/41803/pmnr641.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-41803 |
_version_ |
1766019257396625408 |