Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes
Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other fac...
Published in: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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2014
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Online Access: | https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/38270 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014 |
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ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:38270 2023-05-15T17:58:08+02:00 Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes Nussbaumer, S. Schaub, Y. Huggel, C. Walz, Ariane (Prof. Dr.) 2014 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/38270 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014 eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/38270 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014 info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Institut für Geowissenschaften article doc-type:article 2014 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014 2022-07-28T20:46:40Z Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and future damage potential. Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To generate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling was applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work. Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study underlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing on land-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structural measures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost University of Potsdam: publish.UP Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14 6 1611 1624 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
op_collection_id |
ftubpotsdam |
language |
English |
topic |
Institut für Geowissenschaften |
spellingShingle |
Institut für Geowissenschaften Nussbaumer, S. Schaub, Y. Huggel, C. Walz, Ariane (Prof. Dr.) Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes |
topic_facet |
Institut für Geowissenschaften |
description |
Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and future damage potential. Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To generate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling was applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work. Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study underlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing on land-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structural measures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nussbaumer, S. Schaub, Y. Huggel, C. Walz, Ariane (Prof. Dr.) |
author_facet |
Nussbaumer, S. Schaub, Y. Huggel, C. Walz, Ariane (Prof. Dr.) |
author_sort |
Nussbaumer, S. |
title |
Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes |
title_short |
Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes |
title_full |
Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes |
title_fullStr |
Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes |
title_sort |
risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/38270 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/index/index/docId/38270 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1611 |
op_container_end_page |
1624 |
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1766166670354677760 |