Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast
In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled...
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ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:37171 2024-04-21T08:02:32+00:00 Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich Frieler, Katja Meinshausen, Malte Yin, J. Levermann, Anders (Prof. Dr.) 2011 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/37171 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-191-2011 eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/37171 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-191-2011 info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Institut für Geowissenschaften article doc-type:article 2011 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-191-2011 2024-03-27T15:02:48Z In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC 6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 degrees C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 degrees C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10 %, respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region, as it does not include ice sheet and mountain glacier contributions. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet University of Potsdam: publish.UP Earth System Dynamics 2 2 191 200 |
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University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
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English |
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Institut für Geowissenschaften |
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Institut für Geowissenschaften Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich Frieler, Katja Meinshausen, Malte Yin, J. Levermann, Anders (Prof. Dr.) Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
topic_facet |
Institut für Geowissenschaften |
description |
In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC 6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 degrees C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 degrees C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10 %, respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region, as it does not include ice sheet and mountain glacier contributions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich Frieler, Katja Meinshausen, Malte Yin, J. Levermann, Anders (Prof. Dr.) |
author_facet |
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich Frieler, Katja Meinshausen, Malte Yin, J. Levermann, Anders (Prof. Dr.) |
author_sort |
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich |
title |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
title_short |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
title_full |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
title_fullStr |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
title_full_unstemmed |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
title_sort |
emulating atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios consequences for sea-level rise along the north american east coast |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/37171 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-191-2011 |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/37171 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-191-2011 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-191-2011 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
191 |
op_container_end_page |
200 |
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1796942700676644864 |