Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall
Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise(1), but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of th...
Published in: | Nature |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2012
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/35448 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11616 |
id |
ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:35448 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftubpotsdam:oai:kobv.de-opus4-uni-potsdam:35448 2024-05-19T07:29:55+00:00 Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall Winkelmann, Ricarda (Prof. Dr.) Levermann, Anders (Prof. Dr.) Martin, Maria A. Frieler, Katja 2012 https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/35448 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11616 eng eng https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/35448 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11616 info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Institut für Physik und Astronomie article doc-type:article 2012 ftubpotsdam https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11616 2024-04-23T23:32:43Z Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise(1), but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss(2,3) and ocean expansion(4). Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall(5), but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica(1,6) and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model(7) forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf University of Potsdam: publish.UP Nature 492 7428 239 242 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Potsdam: publish.UP |
op_collection_id |
ftubpotsdam |
language |
English |
topic |
Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
spellingShingle |
Institut für Physik und Astronomie Winkelmann, Ricarda (Prof. Dr.) Levermann, Anders (Prof. Dr.) Martin, Maria A. Frieler, Katja Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall |
topic_facet |
Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
description |
Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise(1), but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss(2,3) and ocean expansion(4). Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall(5), but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica(1,6) and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model(7) forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Winkelmann, Ricarda (Prof. Dr.) Levermann, Anders (Prof. Dr.) Martin, Maria A. Frieler, Katja |
author_facet |
Winkelmann, Ricarda (Prof. Dr.) Levermann, Anders (Prof. Dr.) Martin, Maria A. Frieler, Katja |
author_sort |
Winkelmann, Ricarda (Prof. Dr.) |
title |
Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall |
title_short |
Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall |
title_full |
Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall |
title_fullStr |
Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall |
title_sort |
increased future ice discharge from antarctica owing to higher snowfall |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/35448 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11616 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf |
op_relation |
https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/35448 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11616 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11616 |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
492 |
container_issue |
7428 |
container_start_page |
239 |
op_container_end_page |
242 |
_version_ |
1799482363992866816 |