Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shift...
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ftubkonstanz:oai:kops.uni-konstanz.de:123456789/33634 2024-02-11T09:58:53+01:00 Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift Reid, Philip C. Hari, Renata E. Beaugrand, Grégory Livingstone, David M. Marty, Christoph Straile, Dietmar Barichivich, Jonathan Goberville, Eric Adrian, Rita Aono, Yasuyuki 2016 application/pdf http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-0-323172 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 eng eng http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-0-323172 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 468386009 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Global Change Biology. 2016, 22(2), pp. 682-703. ISSN 1354-1013. eISSN 1365-2486. Available under: doi:10.1111/gcb.13106 climate Earth systems global change regime shift statistical analysis time series volcanic forcing ddc:570 doc-type:article doc-type:Text 2016 ftubkonstanz https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 2024-01-21T23:57:54Z Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. published published Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming KOPS - The Institutional Repository of the University of Konstanz Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic Global Change Biology 22 2 682 703 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
KOPS - The Institutional Repository of the University of Konstanz |
op_collection_id |
ftubkonstanz |
language |
English |
topic |
climate Earth systems global change regime shift statistical analysis time series volcanic forcing ddc:570 |
spellingShingle |
climate Earth systems global change regime shift statistical analysis time series volcanic forcing ddc:570 Reid, Philip C. Hari, Renata E. Beaugrand, Grégory Livingstone, David M. Marty, Christoph Straile, Dietmar Barichivich, Jonathan Goberville, Eric Adrian, Rita Aono, Yasuyuki Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
topic_facet |
climate Earth systems global change regime shift statistical analysis time series volcanic forcing ddc:570 |
description |
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. published published |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reid, Philip C. Hari, Renata E. Beaugrand, Grégory Livingstone, David M. Marty, Christoph Straile, Dietmar Barichivich, Jonathan Goberville, Eric Adrian, Rita Aono, Yasuyuki |
author_facet |
Reid, Philip C. Hari, Renata E. Beaugrand, Grégory Livingstone, David M. Marty, Christoph Straile, Dietmar Barichivich, Jonathan Goberville, Eric Adrian, Rita Aono, Yasuyuki |
author_sort |
Reid, Philip C. |
title |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_short |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_full |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_fullStr |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_sort |
global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-0-323172 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming |
op_source |
Global Change Biology. 2016, 22(2), pp. 682-703. ISSN 1354-1013. eISSN 1365-2486. Available under: doi:10.1111/gcb.13106 |
op_relation |
http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-0-323172 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 468386009 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
682 |
op_container_end_page |
703 |
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1790594703157100544 |