Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship : A Fractional Cointegration Approach
Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due...
Published in: | PLoS ONE |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-0-285245 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113439 |
id |
ftubkonstanz:oai:kops.uni-konstanz.de:123456789/30631 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftubkonstanz:oai:kops.uni-konstanz.de:123456789/30631 2024-02-11T10:08:32+01:00 Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship : A Fractional Cointegration Approach Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel Heres, David R. Martínez-Hernández, L. Catalina 2014 application/pdf http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-0-285245 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113439 eng eng http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-0-285245 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113439 25426638 428458386 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ PLoS ONE. 2014, 9(11), e113439. eISSN 1932-6203. Available under: doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0113439 ddc:570 doc-type:article doc-type:Text 2014 ftubkonstanz https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113439 2024-01-21T23:51:42Z Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level. published published Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice KOPS - The Institutional Repository of the University of Konstanz PLoS ONE 9 11 e113439 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
KOPS - The Institutional Repository of the University of Konstanz |
op_collection_id |
ftubkonstanz |
language |
English |
topic |
ddc:570 |
spellingShingle |
ddc:570 Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel Heres, David R. Martínez-Hernández, L. Catalina Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship : A Fractional Cointegration Approach |
topic_facet |
ddc:570 |
description |
Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level. published published |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel Heres, David R. Martínez-Hernández, L. Catalina |
author_facet |
Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel Heres, David R. Martínez-Hernández, L. Catalina |
author_sort |
Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel |
title |
Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship : A Fractional Cointegration Approach |
title_short |
Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship : A Fractional Cointegration Approach |
title_full |
Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship : A Fractional Cointegration Approach |
title_fullStr |
Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship : A Fractional Cointegration Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship : A Fractional Cointegration Approach |
title_sort |
long-memory and the sea level-temperature relationship : a fractional cointegration approach |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-0-285245 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113439 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
PLoS ONE. 2014, 9(11), e113439. eISSN 1932-6203. Available under: doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0113439 |
op_relation |
http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-0-285245 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113439 25426638 428458386 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113439 |
container_title |
PLoS ONE |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
e113439 |
_version_ |
1790607904894615552 |