Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Fullman N, Barber RM, Abajobir AA, et al. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. LANCET . 2017;390(10100):1423-1459. Background The UN...
Published in: | The Lancet |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Elsevier Science Inc
2017
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Online Access: | https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2914416 |
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Fullman N, Barber RM, Abajobir AA, et al. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. LANCET . 2017;390(10100):1423-1459. Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license. |
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Fullman, Nancy Barber, Ryan M. Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abd-Allah, Foad Abdulle, Abdishakur M. Abera, Semaw Ferede Aboyans, Victor Abu-Raddad, Laith J. Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adetokunboh, Olatunji Afshin, Ashkan Agrawal, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aiyar, Sneha Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akseer, Nadia Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alasfoor, Deena Alene, Kefyalew Addis Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza Alkerwi, Ala'a Alla, Francois Allebeck, Peter Allen, Christine Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Alsharif, Ubai Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Azmeraw T. Amini, Erfan Ammar, Walid Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. Ansari, Hossein Anwari, Palwasha Arora, Megha Artaman, Al Aryal, Krishna Kumar Asayesh, Hamid Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal Assadi, Reza Atey, Tesfay Mehari Atre, Sachin R. Avila-Burgos, Leticia Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur Awasthi, Ashish Azzopardi, Peter Bacha, Umar Badawi, Alaa Balakrishnan, Kalpana Bannick, Marlena S. Barac, Aleksandra Barker-Collo, Suzanne L. Barnighausen, Till Barrero, Lope H. Basu, Sanjay Battle, Katherine E. Baune, Bernhard T. Beardsley, Justin Bedi, Neeraj Bejot, Yannick Bell, Michelle L. Bennett, Derrick A. Bennett, James R. Bensenor, Isabela M. Berhane, Adugnaw Berhe, Derbew Fikadu Bernabe, Eduardo Betsu, Balem Demtsu Beuran, Mircea Beyene, Addisu Shunu Bhansali, Anil Bhatt, Samir Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Bikbov, Boris Bilal, Arebu I. Birungi, Charles Biryukov, Stan Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie Blosser, Christopher D. Boneya, Dube Jara Bose, Dipan Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R. Brauer, Michael Breitborde, Nicholas J. K. Brugha, Traolach S. Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto Butt, Zahid A. Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero Cameron, Ewan Cesar Campuzano, Julio Cardenas, Rosario Carrero, Juan Jesus Carter, Austin Casey, Daniel C. Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline Estanislao Castro, Ruben Catala-Lopez, Ferran Cercy, Kelly Chang, Hsing-Yi Chang, Jung-Chen Charlson, Fiona J. Chew, Adrienne Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe Chitheer, Abdulaal A. Christensen, Hanne Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas Cirillo, Massimo Cooper, Cyrus Criqui, Michael H. Cromwell, Elizabeth A. Crump, John A. Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dargan, Paul I. das Neves, Jose Davitoiu, Dragos V. de Courten, Barbora De Steur, Hans Degenhardt, Louisa Deiparine, Selina Deribe, Kebede deveber, Gabrielle A. Ding, Eric L. Djalalinia, Shirin Huyen Phuc Do, Huyen Phuc Do Dokova, Klara Doku, David Teye Dorsey, E. Ray Driscoll, Tim R. Dubey, Manisha Duncan, Bruce Bartholow Ebel, Beth E. Ebrahimi, Hedyeh El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad Enayati, Ahmadali Endries, Aman Yesuf Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich Erskine, Holly E. Eshrati, Babak Eskandarieh, Sharareh Esteghamati, Alireza Estep, Kara Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino E Sa Farinha, Carla Sofia Faro, Andre Farzadfar, Farshad Fazeli, Mir Sohail Feigin, Valery L. Feigl, Andrea B. Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad Fernandes, Joao C. Ferrari, Alize J. Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa Filip, Irina Fischer, Florian Fitzmaurice, Christina Flaxman, Abraham D. Foigt, Nataliya Foreman, Kyle J. Frank, Tahvi Franklin, Richard C. Friedman, Joseph Frostad, Joseph J. Furst, Thomas Furtado, Joao M. Gakidou, Emmanuela Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde Geleijnse, Johanna M. Geleto, Ayele Gemechu, Bikila Lencha Gething, Peter W. Gibney, Katherine B. Gill, Paramjit Singh Gillum, Richard F. Giref, Ababi Zergaw Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo Giussani, Giorgia Glenn, Scott D. Godwin, William W. Goldberg, Ellen M. Gona, Philimon N. Goodridge, Amador Gopalani, Sameer Vali Goryakin, Yevgeniy Griswold, Max Gugnani, Harish Chander Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Vipin Hafezi-Nejad, Nima Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi Hammami, Mouhanad Hankey, Graeme J. Harb, Hilda L. Hareri, Habtamu Abera Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh Havmoeller, Rasmus Hawley, Caitlin Hay, Simon I. He, Jiawei Hendrie, Delia Henry, Nathaniel J. Beatriz Heredia-Pi, Ileana Hoek, Hans W. Holmberg, Mollie Horita, Nobuyuki Hosgood, H. Dean Hostiuc, Sorin Hoy, Damian G. Hsairi, Mohamed Htet, Aung Soe Huang, Hsiang Huang, John J. Huynh, Chantal Iburg, Kim Moesgaard Ikeda, Chad Inoue, Manami Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Jacobsen, Kathryn H. Jahanmehr, Nader Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. Jauregui, Alejandra Javanbakht, Mehdi Jeemon, Panniyammakal Jha, Vivekanand John, Denny Johnson, Catherine O. Johnson, Sarah Charlotte Jonas, Jost B. Jurisson, Mikk Kabir, Zubair Kadel, Rajendra Kahsay, Amaha Kamal, Ritul Karch, Andre Karema, Corine Kakizi Kasaeian, Amir Kassebaum, Nicholas J. Kastor, Anshul Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal Kawakami, Norito Keiyoro, Peter Njenga Kelbore, Sefonias Getachew Kemmer, Laura Kengne, Andre Pascal Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair Khader, Yousef Saleh Khalil, Ibrahim A. Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khang, Young-Ho Khosravi, Ardeshir Khubchandani, Jagdish Kieling, Christian Kim, Daniel Kim, Jun Y. Kim, Yun Jin Kimokoti, Ruth W. Kinfu, Yohannes Kisa, Adnan Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A. Kivimaki, Mika Kokubo, Yoshihiro Kopec, Jacek A. Kosen, Soewarta Koul, Parvaiz A. Koyanagi, Ai Kravchenko, Michael Krohn, Kristopher J. Defo, Barthelemy Kuate Bicer, Burcu Kucuk Kulikoff, Xie Rachel Kumar, G. Anil Kutz, Michael J. Kyu, Hmwe H. Lal, Dharmesh Kumar Lalloo, Ratilal Lansingh, Van C. Larsson, Anders Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor Lee, Paul H. 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Werdecker, Andrea Westerman, Ronny Whiteford, Harvey A. Wijeratne, Tissa Wiysonge, Charles Shey Woldeyes, Belete Getahun Wolfe, Charles D. A. Woodbrook, Rachel Xavier, Denis Xu, Gelin Yadgir, Simon Yakob, Bereket Yan, Lijing L. Yano, Yuichiro Yaseri, Mehdi Ye, Pengpeng Yimam, Hassen Hamid Yip, Paul Yonemoto, Naohiro Yoon, Seok-Jun Yotebieng, Marcel Younis, Mustafa Z. Zaidi, Zoubida Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed Zavala-Arciniega, Luis Zhang, Xueying Zipkin, Ben Zodpey, Sanjay Lim, Stephen S. Murray, Christopher J. L. |
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Fullman, Nancy Barber, Ryan M. Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abd-Allah, Foad Abdulle, Abdishakur M. Abera, Semaw Ferede Aboyans, Victor Abu-Raddad, Laith J. Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adetokunboh, Olatunji Afshin, Ashkan Agrawal, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aiyar, Sneha Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akseer, Nadia Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alasfoor, Deena Alene, Kefyalew Addis Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza Alkerwi, Ala'a Alla, Francois Allebeck, Peter Allen, Christine Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Alsharif, Ubai Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Azmeraw T. Amini, Erfan Ammar, Walid Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. Ansari, Hossein Anwari, Palwasha Arora, Megha Artaman, Al Aryal, Krishna Kumar Asayesh, Hamid Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal Assadi, Reza Atey, Tesfay Mehari Atre, Sachin R. Avila-Burgos, Leticia Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur Awasthi, Ashish Azzopardi, Peter Bacha, Umar Badawi, Alaa Balakrishnan, Kalpana Bannick, Marlena S. Barac, Aleksandra Barker-Collo, Suzanne L. Barnighausen, Till Barrero, Lope H. Basu, Sanjay Battle, Katherine E. Baune, Bernhard T. Beardsley, Justin Bedi, Neeraj Bejot, Yannick Bell, Michelle L. Bennett, Derrick A. Bennett, James R. Bensenor, Isabela M. Berhane, Adugnaw Berhe, Derbew Fikadu Bernabe, Eduardo Betsu, Balem Demtsu Beuran, Mircea Beyene, Addisu Shunu Bhansali, Anil Bhatt, Samir Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Bikbov, Boris Bilal, Arebu I. Birungi, Charles Biryukov, Stan Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie Blosser, Christopher D. Boneya, Dube Jara Bose, Dipan Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R. Brauer, Michael Breitborde, Nicholas J. K. Brugha, Traolach S. Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto Butt, Zahid A. Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero Cameron, Ewan Cesar Campuzano, Julio Cardenas, Rosario Carrero, Juan Jesus Carter, Austin Casey, Daniel C. Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline Estanislao Castro, Ruben Catala-Lopez, Ferran Cercy, Kelly Chang, Hsing-Yi Chang, Jung-Chen Charlson, Fiona J. Chew, Adrienne Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe Chitheer, Abdulaal A. Christensen, Hanne Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas Cirillo, Massimo Cooper, Cyrus Criqui, Michael H. Cromwell, Elizabeth A. Crump, John A. Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dargan, Paul I. das Neves, Jose Davitoiu, Dragos V. de Courten, Barbora De Steur, Hans Degenhardt, Louisa Deiparine, Selina Deribe, Kebede deveber, Gabrielle A. Ding, Eric L. Djalalinia, Shirin Huyen Phuc Do, Huyen Phuc Do Dokova, Klara Doku, David Teye Dorsey, E. Ray Driscoll, Tim R. Dubey, Manisha Duncan, Bruce Bartholow Ebel, Beth E. Ebrahimi, Hedyeh El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad Enayati, Ahmadali Endries, Aman Yesuf Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich Erskine, Holly E. Eshrati, Babak Eskandarieh, Sharareh Esteghamati, Alireza Estep, Kara Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino E Sa Farinha, Carla Sofia Faro, Andre Farzadfar, Farshad Fazeli, Mir Sohail Feigin, Valery L. Feigl, Andrea B. Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad Fernandes, Joao C. Ferrari, Alize J. Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa Filip, Irina Fischer, Florian Fitzmaurice, Christina Flaxman, Abraham D. Foigt, Nataliya Foreman, Kyle J. Frank, Tahvi Franklin, Richard C. Friedman, Joseph Frostad, Joseph J. Furst, Thomas Furtado, Joao M. Gakidou, Emmanuela Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde Geleijnse, Johanna M. Geleto, Ayele Gemechu, Bikila Lencha Gething, Peter W. Gibney, Katherine B. Gill, Paramjit Singh Gillum, Richard F. Giref, Ababi Zergaw Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo Giussani, Giorgia Glenn, Scott D. Godwin, William W. Goldberg, Ellen M. Gona, Philimon N. Goodridge, Amador Gopalani, Sameer Vali Goryakin, Yevgeniy Griswold, Max Gugnani, Harish Chander Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Vipin Hafezi-Nejad, Nima Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi Hammami, Mouhanad Hankey, Graeme J. Harb, Hilda L. Hareri, Habtamu Abera Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh Havmoeller, Rasmus Hawley, Caitlin Hay, Simon I. He, Jiawei Hendrie, Delia Henry, Nathaniel J. Beatriz Heredia-Pi, Ileana Hoek, Hans W. Holmberg, Mollie Horita, Nobuyuki Hosgood, H. Dean Hostiuc, Sorin Hoy, Damian G. Hsairi, Mohamed Htet, Aung Soe Huang, Hsiang Huang, John J. Huynh, Chantal Iburg, Kim Moesgaard Ikeda, Chad Inoue, Manami Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Jacobsen, Kathryn H. Jahanmehr, Nader Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. Jauregui, Alejandra Javanbakht, Mehdi Jeemon, Panniyammakal Jha, Vivekanand John, Denny Johnson, Catherine O. Johnson, Sarah Charlotte Jonas, Jost B. Jurisson, Mikk Kabir, Zubair Kadel, Rajendra Kahsay, Amaha Kamal, Ritul Karch, Andre Karema, Corine Kakizi Kasaeian, Amir Kassebaum, Nicholas J. Kastor, Anshul Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal Kawakami, Norito Keiyoro, Peter Njenga Kelbore, Sefonias Getachew Kemmer, Laura Kengne, Andre Pascal Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair Khader, Yousef Saleh Khalil, Ibrahim A. Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khang, Young-Ho Khosravi, Ardeshir Khubchandani, Jagdish Kieling, Christian Kim, Daniel Kim, Jun Y. Kim, Yun Jin Kimokoti, Ruth W. Kinfu, Yohannes Kisa, Adnan Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A. Kivimaki, Mika Kokubo, Yoshihiro Kopec, Jacek A. Kosen, Soewarta Koul, Parvaiz A. Koyanagi, Ai Kravchenko, Michael Krohn, Kristopher J. Defo, Barthelemy Kuate Bicer, Burcu Kucuk Kulikoff, Xie Rachel Kumar, G. Anil Kutz, Michael J. Kyu, Hmwe H. Lal, Dharmesh Kumar Lalloo, Ratilal Lansingh, Van C. Larsson, Anders Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor Lee, Paul H. Leigh, James Leung, Janni Leung, Ricky Levi, Miriam Li, Yongmei Liben, Misgan Legesse Linn, Shai Liu, Patrick Y. Liu, Shiwei Lodha, Rakesh Looker, Katharine J. Lopez, Alan D. Lorkowski, Stefan Lotufo, Paulo A. Lozano, Rafael Lucas, Timothy C. D. Mackay, Mark T. Maddison, Emilie R. Abd el Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd el Razek, Mohammed Magdy Majdan, Marek Majdzadeh, Reza Majeed, Azeem Malekzadeh, Reza Malhotra, Rajesh Malta, Deborah Carvalho Mamun, Abdullah A. Manguerra, Helena Mantovani, Lorenzo G. Manyazewal, Tsegahun Mapoma, Chabila C. Marks, Guy B. Martin, Randall V. Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio Martopullo, Ira Mathur, Manu Raj Mazidi, Mohsen McAlinden, Colm McGaughey, Madeline McGrath, John J. Mckee, Martin Mehata, Suresh Mehndiratta, Man Mohan Meier, Toni Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam Memish, Ziad A. Mendoza, Walter Mengesha, Melkamu Merid Mengistie, Mubarek Abera Mensah, George A. Mensink, Gert B. M. Mereta, Seid Tiku Meretoja, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J. Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane Micha, Renata Millear, Anoushka Miller, Ted R. Minnig, Shawn Mirarefin, Mojde Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. Misganaw, Awoke Mishra, Shiva Raj Mitchell, Philip B. Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammed, Kedir Endris Mohammed, Shafiu Mohan, Murali B. V. Mokdad, Ali H. Mollenkopf, Sarah K. Monasta, Lorenzo Montanez Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montico, Marcella Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar Moraga, Paula Morawska, Lidia Morrison, Shane D. Moses, Mark W. Mountjoy-Venning, Cliff Mueller, Ulrich O. Muller, Kate Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana Musa, Kamarul Imran Naghavi, Mohsen Naheed, Aliya Naidoo, Kovin S. Nangia, Vinay Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan Negoi, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Cuong Tat Nguyen, Cuong Tat Nguyen Grant Nguyen, Grant Nguyen Minh Nguyen, Minh Nguyen Quyen Le Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen Trang Huyen Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen Nichols, Emma Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini Nomura, Marika Vuong Minh Nong, Vuong Minh Nong Norheim, Ole F. Noubiap, Jean Jacques N. Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf Ogbo, Felix Akpojene Oh, In-Hwan Oladimeji, Olanrewaju Olagunju, Andrew Toyin Olagunju, Tinuke Oluwasefunmi Olivares, Pedro R. Olsen, Helen E. Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Ong, Kanyin Oren, Eyal Ortiz, Alberto Owolabi, Mayowa O. Pa, Mahesh Pana, Adrian Panda, Basant Kumar Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra Papachristou, Christina Park, Eun-Kee Patton, George C. Paulson, Katherine Pereira, David M. Perico, David Norberto Pesudovs, Konrad Petzold, Max Phillips, Michael Robert Pigott, David M. Pillay, Julian David Pinho, Christine Piradov, Michael A. Pishgar, Farhad Poulton, Richie G. Pourmalek, Farshad Qorbani, Mostafa Radfar, Amir Rafay, Anwar Rao, Puja C. Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa Rahman, Mahfuzar Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rai, Rajesh Kumar Rajsic, Sasa Ram, Usha Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal Rawaf, Salman Reidy, Patrick Reiner, Robert C., Jr. Reinig, Nikolas Reitsma, Marissa B. Remuzzi, Giuseppe Renzaho, Andre M. N. Resnikoff, Serge Rezaei, Satar Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus Roba, Kedir Teji Rojas-Rueda, David Rokni, Mohammad Bagher Roshandel, Gholamreza Roth, Gregory A. Roy, Ambuj Rubagotti, Enrico Sadat, Nafis Safdarian, Mahdi Safi, Sare Safiri, Saeid Sagar, Rajesh Salama, Joseph Salomon, Joshua A. Samy, Abdallah M. Ramon Sanabria, Juan Santomauro, Damian Santos, Itamar S. Santos, Joao Vasco Milicevic, Milena M. Santric Sartorius, Benn Satpathy, Maheswar Sawhney, Monika Saxena, Sonia Saylan, Mete I. Shirude, Shreya Schmidt, Maria Ines Schneider, Ione J. C. Schneider, Matthew T. Schottker, Ben Schutte, Aletta E. Schwebel, David C. Schwendicke, Falk Seedat, Soraya Sepanlou, Sadaf G. Servan-Mori, Edson E. Shackelford, Katya Anne Shaheen, Amira Shahraz, Saeid Shaikh, Masood Ali Shamsipour, Mansour Shamsizadeh, Morteza Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Sharma, Jayendra Sharma, Rajesh She, Jun Shi, Peilin Shibuya, Kenji Shields, Chloe Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay Shigematsu, Mika Shin, Min-Jeong Shiri, Rahman Shirkoohi, Reza Shishani, Kawkab Shoman, Haitham Shrime, Mark G. Santos Silva, Diego Augusto Silva, Joao Pedro Alves Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Virendra Sinha, Dhirendra Narain Skiadaresi, Eirini Slepak, Erica Leigh Sligar, Amber Smith, Alison Smith, David L. Smith, Mari Sobaih, Badr H. A. Sobngwi, Eugene Soljak, Michael Soneji, Samir Sorensen, Reed J. D. Sposato, Luciano A. Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. Srinivasan, Vinay Stanaway, Jeffrey D. Stein, Dan J. Steinke, Sabine Stokes, Mark Andrew Strub, Bryan Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi Sunguya, Bruno F. Sur, Patrick J. Swaminathan, Soumya Sykes, Bryan L. Sylte, Dillon O. Szoeke, Cassandra E. I. Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar Tandon, Nikhil Tao, Tianchan Tarekegn, Yihunie L. Tavakkoli, Mohammad Taveira, Nuno Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw Shifa, Girma Temam Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman Tessema, Gizachew Assefa Thakur, J. S. Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman Thrift, Amanda G. Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan Topor-Madry, Roman Torre, Anna Tortajada, Miguel Tran, Bach Xuan Troeger, Christopher Truelsen, Thomas Tsoi, Derrick Tuem, Kald Beshir Tuzcu, Emin Murat Tyrovolas, Stefanos Ukwaja, Kingsley N. Uneke, Chigozie Jesse Updike, Rachel Uthman, Olalekan A. van Boven, Job F. M. van Donkelaar, Aaron Varughese, Santosh Vasankari, Tommi Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy Vidavalur, Ramesh Violante, Francesco S. Vladimirov, Sergey K. Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich Vollset, Stein Emil Vos, Theo Wadilo, Fiseha Wakayo, Tolassa Wallin, Mitchell T. Wang, Yuan-Pang Weichenthal, Scott Weiderpass, Elisabete Weintraub, Robert G. Weiss, Daniel J. Werdecker, Andrea Westerman, Ronny Whiteford, Harvey A. Wijeratne, Tissa Wiysonge, Charles Shey Woldeyes, Belete Getahun Wolfe, Charles D. A. Woodbrook, Rachel Xavier, Denis Xu, Gelin Yadgir, Simon Yakob, Bereket Yan, Lijing L. Yano, Yuichiro Yaseri, Mehdi Ye, Pengpeng Yimam, Hassen Hamid Yip, Paul Yonemoto, Naohiro Yoon, Seok-Jun Yotebieng, Marcel Younis, Mustafa Z. Zaidi, Zoubida Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed Zavala-Arciniega, Luis Zhang, Xueying Zipkin, Ben Zodpey, Sanjay Lim, Stephen S. Murray, Christopher J. L. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
author_facet |
Fullman, Nancy Barber, Ryan M. Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abd-Allah, Foad Abdulle, Abdishakur M. Abera, Semaw Ferede Aboyans, Victor Abu-Raddad, Laith J. Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adetokunboh, Olatunji Afshin, Ashkan Agrawal, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aiyar, Sneha Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akseer, Nadia Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alasfoor, Deena Alene, Kefyalew Addis Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza Alkerwi, Ala'a Alla, Francois Allebeck, Peter Allen, Christine Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Alsharif, Ubai Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Azmeraw T. Amini, Erfan Ammar, Walid Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. Ansari, Hossein Anwari, Palwasha Arora, Megha Artaman, Al Aryal, Krishna Kumar Asayesh, Hamid Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal Assadi, Reza Atey, Tesfay Mehari Atre, Sachin R. Avila-Burgos, Leticia Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur Awasthi, Ashish Azzopardi, Peter Bacha, Umar Badawi, Alaa Balakrishnan, Kalpana Bannick, Marlena S. Barac, Aleksandra Barker-Collo, Suzanne L. Barnighausen, Till Barrero, Lope H. Basu, Sanjay Battle, Katherine E. Baune, Bernhard T. Beardsley, Justin Bedi, Neeraj Bejot, Yannick Bell, Michelle L. Bennett, Derrick A. Bennett, James R. Bensenor, Isabela M. Berhane, Adugnaw Berhe, Derbew Fikadu Bernabe, Eduardo Betsu, Balem Demtsu Beuran, Mircea Beyene, Addisu Shunu Bhansali, Anil Bhatt, Samir Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Bikbov, Boris Bilal, Arebu I. Birungi, Charles Biryukov, Stan Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie Blosser, Christopher D. Boneya, Dube Jara Bose, Dipan Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R. Brauer, Michael Breitborde, Nicholas J. K. Brugha, Traolach S. Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto Butt, Zahid A. Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero Cameron, Ewan Cesar Campuzano, Julio Cardenas, Rosario Carrero, Juan Jesus Carter, Austin Casey, Daniel C. Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline Estanislao Castro, Ruben Catala-Lopez, Ferran Cercy, Kelly Chang, Hsing-Yi Chang, Jung-Chen Charlson, Fiona J. Chew, Adrienne Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe Chitheer, Abdulaal A. Christensen, Hanne Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas Cirillo, Massimo Cooper, Cyrus Criqui, Michael H. Cromwell, Elizabeth A. Crump, John A. Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dargan, Paul I. das Neves, Jose Davitoiu, Dragos V. de Courten, Barbora De Steur, Hans Degenhardt, Louisa Deiparine, Selina Deribe, Kebede deveber, Gabrielle A. Ding, Eric L. Djalalinia, Shirin Huyen Phuc Do, Huyen Phuc Do Dokova, Klara Doku, David Teye Dorsey, E. Ray Driscoll, Tim R. Dubey, Manisha Duncan, Bruce Bartholow Ebel, Beth E. Ebrahimi, Hedyeh El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad Enayati, Ahmadali Endries, Aman Yesuf Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich Erskine, Holly E. Eshrati, Babak Eskandarieh, Sharareh Esteghamati, Alireza Estep, Kara Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino E Sa Farinha, Carla Sofia Faro, Andre Farzadfar, Farshad Fazeli, Mir Sohail Feigin, Valery L. Feigl, Andrea B. Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad Fernandes, Joao C. Ferrari, Alize J. Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa Filip, Irina Fischer, Florian Fitzmaurice, Christina Flaxman, Abraham D. Foigt, Nataliya Foreman, Kyle J. Frank, Tahvi Franklin, Richard C. Friedman, Joseph Frostad, Joseph J. Furst, Thomas Furtado, Joao M. Gakidou, Emmanuela Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde Geleijnse, Johanna M. Geleto, Ayele Gemechu, Bikila Lencha Gething, Peter W. Gibney, Katherine B. Gill, Paramjit Singh Gillum, Richard F. Giref, Ababi Zergaw Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo Giussani, Giorgia Glenn, Scott D. Godwin, William W. Goldberg, Ellen M. Gona, Philimon N. Goodridge, Amador Gopalani, Sameer Vali Goryakin, Yevgeniy Griswold, Max Gugnani, Harish Chander Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Vipin Hafezi-Nejad, Nima Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi Hammami, Mouhanad Hankey, Graeme J. Harb, Hilda L. Hareri, Habtamu Abera Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh Havmoeller, Rasmus Hawley, Caitlin Hay, Simon I. He, Jiawei Hendrie, Delia Henry, Nathaniel J. Beatriz Heredia-Pi, Ileana Hoek, Hans W. Holmberg, Mollie Horita, Nobuyuki Hosgood, H. Dean Hostiuc, Sorin Hoy, Damian G. Hsairi, Mohamed Htet, Aung Soe Huang, Hsiang Huang, John J. Huynh, Chantal Iburg, Kim Moesgaard Ikeda, Chad Inoue, Manami Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Jacobsen, Kathryn H. Jahanmehr, Nader Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. Jauregui, Alejandra Javanbakht, Mehdi Jeemon, Panniyammakal Jha, Vivekanand John, Denny Johnson, Catherine O. Johnson, Sarah Charlotte Jonas, Jost B. Jurisson, Mikk Kabir, Zubair Kadel, Rajendra Kahsay, Amaha Kamal, Ritul Karch, Andre Karema, Corine Kakizi Kasaeian, Amir Kassebaum, Nicholas J. Kastor, Anshul Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal Kawakami, Norito Keiyoro, Peter Njenga Kelbore, Sefonias Getachew Kemmer, Laura Kengne, Andre Pascal Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair Khader, Yousef Saleh Khalil, Ibrahim A. Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khang, Young-Ho Khosravi, Ardeshir Khubchandani, Jagdish Kieling, Christian Kim, Daniel Kim, Jun Y. Kim, Yun Jin Kimokoti, Ruth W. Kinfu, Yohannes Kisa, Adnan Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A. Kivimaki, Mika Kokubo, Yoshihiro Kopec, Jacek A. Kosen, Soewarta Koul, Parvaiz A. Koyanagi, Ai Kravchenko, Michael Krohn, Kristopher J. Defo, Barthelemy Kuate Bicer, Burcu Kucuk Kulikoff, Xie Rachel Kumar, G. Anil Kutz, Michael J. Kyu, Hmwe H. Lal, Dharmesh Kumar Lalloo, Ratilal Lansingh, Van C. Larsson, Anders Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor Lee, Paul H. Leigh, James Leung, Janni Leung, Ricky Levi, Miriam Li, Yongmei Liben, Misgan Legesse Linn, Shai Liu, Patrick Y. Liu, Shiwei Lodha, Rakesh Looker, Katharine J. Lopez, Alan D. Lorkowski, Stefan Lotufo, Paulo A. Lozano, Rafael Lucas, Timothy C. D. Mackay, Mark T. Maddison, Emilie R. Abd el Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd el Razek, Mohammed Magdy Majdan, Marek Majdzadeh, Reza Majeed, Azeem Malekzadeh, Reza Malhotra, Rajesh Malta, Deborah Carvalho Mamun, Abdullah A. Manguerra, Helena Mantovani, Lorenzo G. Manyazewal, Tsegahun Mapoma, Chabila C. Marks, Guy B. Martin, Randall V. Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio Martopullo, Ira Mathur, Manu Raj Mazidi, Mohsen McAlinden, Colm McGaughey, Madeline McGrath, John J. Mckee, Martin Mehata, Suresh Mehndiratta, Man Mohan Meier, Toni Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam Memish, Ziad A. Mendoza, Walter Mengesha, Melkamu Merid Mengistie, Mubarek Abera Mensah, George A. Mensink, Gert B. M. Mereta, Seid Tiku Meretoja, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J. Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane Micha, Renata Millear, Anoushka Miller, Ted R. Minnig, Shawn Mirarefin, Mojde Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. Misganaw, Awoke Mishra, Shiva Raj Mitchell, Philip B. Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammed, Kedir Endris Mohammed, Shafiu Mohan, Murali B. V. Mokdad, Ali H. Mollenkopf, Sarah K. Monasta, Lorenzo Montanez Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montico, Marcella Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar Moraga, Paula Morawska, Lidia Morrison, Shane D. Moses, Mark W. Mountjoy-Venning, Cliff Mueller, Ulrich O. Muller, Kate Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana Musa, Kamarul Imran Naghavi, Mohsen Naheed, Aliya Naidoo, Kovin S. Nangia, Vinay Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan Negoi, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Cuong Tat Nguyen, Cuong Tat Nguyen Grant Nguyen, Grant Nguyen Minh Nguyen, Minh Nguyen Quyen Le Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen Trang Huyen Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen Nichols, Emma Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini Nomura, Marika Vuong Minh Nong, Vuong Minh Nong Norheim, Ole F. Noubiap, Jean Jacques N. Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf Ogbo, Felix Akpojene Oh, In-Hwan Oladimeji, Olanrewaju Olagunju, Andrew Toyin Olagunju, Tinuke Oluwasefunmi Olivares, Pedro R. Olsen, Helen E. Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Ong, Kanyin Oren, Eyal Ortiz, Alberto Owolabi, Mayowa O. Pa, Mahesh Pana, Adrian Panda, Basant Kumar Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra Papachristou, Christina Park, Eun-Kee Patton, George C. Paulson, Katherine Pereira, David M. Perico, David Norberto Pesudovs, Konrad Petzold, Max Phillips, Michael Robert Pigott, David M. Pillay, Julian David Pinho, Christine Piradov, Michael A. Pishgar, Farhad Poulton, Richie G. Pourmalek, Farshad Qorbani, Mostafa Radfar, Amir Rafay, Anwar Rao, Puja C. Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa Rahman, Mahfuzar Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rai, Rajesh Kumar Rajsic, Sasa Ram, Usha Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal Rawaf, Salman Reidy, Patrick Reiner, Robert C., Jr. Reinig, Nikolas Reitsma, Marissa B. Remuzzi, Giuseppe Renzaho, Andre M. N. Resnikoff, Serge Rezaei, Satar Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus Roba, Kedir Teji Rojas-Rueda, David Rokni, Mohammad Bagher Roshandel, Gholamreza Roth, Gregory A. Roy, Ambuj Rubagotti, Enrico Sadat, Nafis Safdarian, Mahdi Safi, Sare Safiri, Saeid Sagar, Rajesh Salama, Joseph Salomon, Joshua A. Samy, Abdallah M. Ramon Sanabria, Juan Santomauro, Damian Santos, Itamar S. Santos, Joao Vasco Milicevic, Milena M. Santric Sartorius, Benn Satpathy, Maheswar Sawhney, Monika Saxena, Sonia Saylan, Mete I. Shirude, Shreya Schmidt, Maria Ines Schneider, Ione J. C. Schneider, Matthew T. Schottker, Ben Schutte, Aletta E. Schwebel, David C. Schwendicke, Falk Seedat, Soraya Sepanlou, Sadaf G. Servan-Mori, Edson E. Shackelford, Katya Anne Shaheen, Amira Shahraz, Saeid Shaikh, Masood Ali Shamsipour, Mansour Shamsizadeh, Morteza Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Sharma, Jayendra Sharma, Rajesh She, Jun Shi, Peilin Shibuya, Kenji Shields, Chloe Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay Shigematsu, Mika Shin, Min-Jeong Shiri, Rahman Shirkoohi, Reza Shishani, Kawkab Shoman, Haitham Shrime, Mark G. Santos Silva, Diego Augusto Silva, Joao Pedro Alves Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Virendra Sinha, Dhirendra Narain Skiadaresi, Eirini Slepak, Erica Leigh Sligar, Amber Smith, Alison Smith, David L. Smith, Mari Sobaih, Badr H. A. Sobngwi, Eugene Soljak, Michael Soneji, Samir Sorensen, Reed J. D. Sposato, Luciano A. Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. Srinivasan, Vinay Stanaway, Jeffrey D. Stein, Dan J. Steinke, Sabine Stokes, Mark Andrew Strub, Bryan Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi Sunguya, Bruno F. Sur, Patrick J. Swaminathan, Soumya Sykes, Bryan L. Sylte, Dillon O. Szoeke, Cassandra E. I. Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar Tandon, Nikhil Tao, Tianchan Tarekegn, Yihunie L. Tavakkoli, Mohammad Taveira, Nuno Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw Shifa, Girma Temam Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman Tessema, Gizachew Assefa Thakur, J. S. Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman Thrift, Amanda G. Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan Topor-Madry, Roman Torre, Anna Tortajada, Miguel Tran, Bach Xuan Troeger, Christopher Truelsen, Thomas Tsoi, Derrick Tuem, Kald Beshir Tuzcu, Emin Murat Tyrovolas, Stefanos Ukwaja, Kingsley N. Uneke, Chigozie Jesse Updike, Rachel Uthman, Olalekan A. van Boven, Job F. M. van Donkelaar, Aaron Varughese, Santosh Vasankari, Tommi Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy Vidavalur, Ramesh Violante, Francesco S. Vladimirov, Sergey K. Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich Vollset, Stein Emil Vos, Theo Wadilo, Fiseha Wakayo, Tolassa Wallin, Mitchell T. Wang, Yuan-Pang Weichenthal, Scott Weiderpass, Elisabete Weintraub, Robert G. Weiss, Daniel J. Werdecker, Andrea Westerman, Ronny Whiteford, Harvey A. Wijeratne, Tissa Wiysonge, Charles Shey Woldeyes, Belete Getahun Wolfe, Charles D. A. Woodbrook, Rachel Xavier, Denis Xu, Gelin Yadgir, Simon Yakob, Bereket Yan, Lijing L. Yano, Yuichiro Yaseri, Mehdi Ye, Pengpeng Yimam, Hassen Hamid Yip, Paul Yonemoto, Naohiro Yoon, Seok-Jun Yotebieng, Marcel Younis, Mustafa Z. Zaidi, Zoubida Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed Zavala-Arciniega, Luis Zhang, Xueying Zipkin, Ben Zodpey, Sanjay Lim, Stephen S. Murray, Christopher J. L. |
author_sort |
Fullman, Nancy |
title |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_short |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_full |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_fullStr |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_sort |
measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related sustainable development goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2016 |
publisher |
Elsevier Science Inc |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2914416 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/0140-6736 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1474-547X info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000410630000007 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/28916366 https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2914416 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X |
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ftubbiepub:oai:pub.uni-bielefeld.de:2914416 2023-05-15T16:53:24+02:00 Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 Fullman, Nancy Barber, Ryan M. Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Kaja M. Abd-Allah, Foad Abdulle, Abdishakur M. Abera, Semaw Ferede Aboyans, Victor Abu-Raddad, Laith J. Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E. Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi Adetokunboh, Olatunji Afshin, Ashkan Agrawal, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad Ahmadieh, Hamid Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aiyar, Sneha Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akseer, Nadia Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alasfoor, Deena Alene, Kefyalew Addis Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza Alkerwi, Ala'a Alla, Francois Allebeck, Peter Allen, Christine Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Alsharif, Ubai Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Azmeraw T. Amini, Erfan Ammar, Walid Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. Ansari, Hossein Anwari, Palwasha Arora, Megha Artaman, Al Aryal, Krishna Kumar Asayesh, Hamid Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal Assadi, Reza Atey, Tesfay Mehari Atre, Sachin R. Avila-Burgos, Leticia Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur Awasthi, Ashish Azzopardi, Peter Bacha, Umar Badawi, Alaa Balakrishnan, Kalpana Bannick, Marlena S. Barac, Aleksandra Barker-Collo, Suzanne L. Barnighausen, Till Barrero, Lope H. Basu, Sanjay Battle, Katherine E. Baune, Bernhard T. Beardsley, Justin Bedi, Neeraj Bejot, Yannick Bell, Michelle L. Bennett, Derrick A. Bennett, James R. Bensenor, Isabela M. Berhane, Adugnaw Berhe, Derbew Fikadu Bernabe, Eduardo Betsu, Balem Demtsu Beuran, Mircea Beyene, Addisu Shunu Bhansali, Anil Bhatt, Samir Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Bikbov, Boris Bilal, Arebu I. Birungi, Charles Biryukov, Stan Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie Blosser, Christopher D. Boneya, Dube Jara Bose, Dipan Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R. Brauer, Michael Breitborde, Nicholas J. K. Brugha, Traolach S. Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto Butt, Zahid A. Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero Cameron, Ewan Cesar Campuzano, Julio Cardenas, Rosario Carrero, Juan Jesus Carter, Austin Casey, Daniel C. Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline Estanislao Castro, Ruben Catala-Lopez, Ferran Cercy, Kelly Chang, Hsing-Yi Chang, Jung-Chen Charlson, Fiona J. Chew, Adrienne Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe Chitheer, Abdulaal A. Christensen, Hanne Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas Cirillo, Massimo Cooper, Cyrus Criqui, Michael H. Cromwell, Elizabeth A. Crump, John A. Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dargan, Paul I. das Neves, Jose Davitoiu, Dragos V. de Courten, Barbora De Steur, Hans Degenhardt, Louisa Deiparine, Selina Deribe, Kebede deveber, Gabrielle A. Ding, Eric L. Djalalinia, Shirin Huyen Phuc Do, Huyen Phuc Do Dokova, Klara Doku, David Teye Dorsey, E. Ray Driscoll, Tim R. Dubey, Manisha Duncan, Bruce Bartholow Ebel, Beth E. Ebrahimi, Hedyeh El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad Enayati, Ahmadali Endries, Aman Yesuf Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich Erskine, Holly E. Eshrati, Babak Eskandarieh, Sharareh Esteghamati, Alireza Estep, Kara Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino E Sa Farinha, Carla Sofia Faro, Andre Farzadfar, Farshad Fazeli, Mir Sohail Feigin, Valery L. Feigl, Andrea B. Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad Fernandes, Joao C. Ferrari, Alize J. Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa Filip, Irina Fischer, Florian Fitzmaurice, Christina Flaxman, Abraham D. Foigt, Nataliya Foreman, Kyle J. Frank, Tahvi Franklin, Richard C. Friedman, Joseph Frostad, Joseph J. Furst, Thomas Furtado, Joao M. Gakidou, Emmanuela Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde Geleijnse, Johanna M. Geleto, Ayele Gemechu, Bikila Lencha Gething, Peter W. Gibney, Katherine B. Gill, Paramjit Singh Gillum, Richard F. Giref, Ababi Zergaw Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo Giussani, Giorgia Glenn, Scott D. Godwin, William W. Goldberg, Ellen M. Gona, Philimon N. Goodridge, Amador Gopalani, Sameer Vali Goryakin, Yevgeniy Griswold, Max Gugnani, Harish Chander Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Vipin Hafezi-Nejad, Nima Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi Hammami, Mouhanad Hankey, Graeme J. Harb, Hilda L. Hareri, Habtamu Abera Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh Havmoeller, Rasmus Hawley, Caitlin Hay, Simon I. He, Jiawei Hendrie, Delia Henry, Nathaniel J. Beatriz Heredia-Pi, Ileana Hoek, Hans W. Holmberg, Mollie Horita, Nobuyuki Hosgood, H. Dean Hostiuc, Sorin Hoy, Damian G. Hsairi, Mohamed Htet, Aung Soe Huang, Hsiang Huang, John J. Huynh, Chantal Iburg, Kim Moesgaard Ikeda, Chad Inoue, Manami Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Jacobsen, Kathryn H. Jahanmehr, Nader Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. Jauregui, Alejandra Javanbakht, Mehdi Jeemon, Panniyammakal Jha, Vivekanand John, Denny Johnson, Catherine O. Johnson, Sarah Charlotte Jonas, Jost B. Jurisson, Mikk Kabir, Zubair Kadel, Rajendra Kahsay, Amaha Kamal, Ritul Karch, Andre Karema, Corine Kakizi Kasaeian, Amir Kassebaum, Nicholas J. Kastor, Anshul Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal Kawakami, Norito Keiyoro, Peter Njenga Kelbore, Sefonias Getachew Kemmer, Laura Kengne, Andre Pascal Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair Khader, Yousef Saleh Khalil, Ibrahim A. Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khang, Young-Ho Khosravi, Ardeshir Khubchandani, Jagdish Kieling, Christian Kim, Daniel Kim, Jun Y. Kim, Yun Jin Kimokoti, Ruth W. Kinfu, Yohannes Kisa, Adnan Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A. Kivimaki, Mika Kokubo, Yoshihiro Kopec, Jacek A. Kosen, Soewarta Koul, Parvaiz A. Koyanagi, Ai Kravchenko, Michael Krohn, Kristopher J. Defo, Barthelemy Kuate Bicer, Burcu Kucuk Kulikoff, Xie Rachel Kumar, G. Anil Kutz, Michael J. Kyu, Hmwe H. Lal, Dharmesh Kumar Lalloo, Ratilal Lansingh, Van C. Larsson, Anders Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor Lee, Paul H. Leigh, James Leung, Janni Leung, Ricky Levi, Miriam Li, Yongmei Liben, Misgan Legesse Linn, Shai Liu, Patrick Y. Liu, Shiwei Lodha, Rakesh Looker, Katharine J. Lopez, Alan D. Lorkowski, Stefan Lotufo, Paulo A. Lozano, Rafael Lucas, Timothy C. D. Mackay, Mark T. Maddison, Emilie R. Abd el Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd el Razek, Mohammed Magdy Majdan, Marek Majdzadeh, Reza Majeed, Azeem Malekzadeh, Reza Malhotra, Rajesh Malta, Deborah Carvalho Mamun, Abdullah A. Manguerra, Helena Mantovani, Lorenzo G. Manyazewal, Tsegahun Mapoma, Chabila C. Marks, Guy B. Martin, Randall V. Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio Martopullo, Ira Mathur, Manu Raj Mazidi, Mohsen McAlinden, Colm McGaughey, Madeline McGrath, John J. Mckee, Martin Mehata, Suresh Mehndiratta, Man Mohan Meier, Toni Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam Memish, Ziad A. Mendoza, Walter Mengesha, Melkamu Merid Mengistie, Mubarek Abera Mensah, George A. Mensink, Gert B. M. Mereta, Seid Tiku Meretoja, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J. Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane Micha, Renata Millear, Anoushka Miller, Ted R. Minnig, Shawn Mirarefin, Mojde Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. Misganaw, Awoke Mishra, Shiva Raj Mitchell, Philip B. Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammed, Kedir Endris Mohammed, Shafiu Mohan, Murali B. V. Mokdad, Ali H. Mollenkopf, Sarah K. Monasta, Lorenzo Montanez Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montico, Marcella Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar Moraga, Paula Morawska, Lidia Morrison, Shane D. Moses, Mark W. Mountjoy-Venning, Cliff Mueller, Ulrich O. Muller, Kate Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana Musa, Kamarul Imran Naghavi, Mohsen Naheed, Aliya Naidoo, Kovin S. Nangia, Vinay Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan Negoi, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Cuong Tat Nguyen, Cuong Tat Nguyen Grant Nguyen, Grant Nguyen Minh Nguyen, Minh Nguyen Quyen Le Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen Trang Huyen Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen Nichols, Emma Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini Nomura, Marika Vuong Minh Nong, Vuong Minh Nong Norheim, Ole F. Noubiap, Jean Jacques N. Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf Ogbo, Felix Akpojene Oh, In-Hwan Oladimeji, Olanrewaju Olagunju, Andrew Toyin Olagunju, Tinuke Oluwasefunmi Olivares, Pedro R. Olsen, Helen E. Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Ong, Kanyin Oren, Eyal Ortiz, Alberto Owolabi, Mayowa O. Pa, Mahesh Pana, Adrian Panda, Basant Kumar Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra Papachristou, Christina Park, Eun-Kee Patton, George C. Paulson, Katherine Pereira, David M. Perico, David Norberto Pesudovs, Konrad Petzold, Max Phillips, Michael Robert Pigott, David M. Pillay, Julian David Pinho, Christine Piradov, Michael A. Pishgar, Farhad Poulton, Richie G. Pourmalek, Farshad Qorbani, Mostafa Radfar, Amir Rafay, Anwar Rao, Puja C. Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa Rahman, Mahfuzar Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rai, Rajesh Kumar Rajsic, Sasa Ram, Usha Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal Rawaf, Salman Reidy, Patrick Reiner, Robert C., Jr. Reinig, Nikolas Reitsma, Marissa B. Remuzzi, Giuseppe Renzaho, Andre M. N. Resnikoff, Serge Rezaei, Satar Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus Roba, Kedir Teji Rojas-Rueda, David Rokni, Mohammad Bagher Roshandel, Gholamreza Roth, Gregory A. Roy, Ambuj Rubagotti, Enrico Sadat, Nafis Safdarian, Mahdi Safi, Sare Safiri, Saeid Sagar, Rajesh Salama, Joseph Salomon, Joshua A. Samy, Abdallah M. Ramon Sanabria, Juan Santomauro, Damian Santos, Itamar S. Santos, Joao Vasco Milicevic, Milena M. Santric Sartorius, Benn Satpathy, Maheswar Sawhney, Monika Saxena, Sonia Saylan, Mete I. Shirude, Shreya Schmidt, Maria Ines Schneider, Ione J. C. Schneider, Matthew T. Schottker, Ben Schutte, Aletta E. Schwebel, David C. Schwendicke, Falk Seedat, Soraya Sepanlou, Sadaf G. Servan-Mori, Edson E. Shackelford, Katya Anne Shaheen, Amira Shahraz, Saeid Shaikh, Masood Ali Shamsipour, Mansour Shamsizadeh, Morteza Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Sharma, Jayendra Sharma, Rajesh She, Jun Shi, Peilin Shibuya, Kenji Shields, Chloe Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay Shigematsu, Mika Shin, Min-Jeong Shiri, Rahman Shirkoohi, Reza Shishani, Kawkab Shoman, Haitham Shrime, Mark G. Santos Silva, Diego Augusto Silva, Joao Pedro Alves Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Virendra Sinha, Dhirendra Narain Skiadaresi, Eirini Slepak, Erica Leigh Sligar, Amber Smith, Alison Smith, David L. Smith, Mari Sobaih, Badr H. A. Sobngwi, Eugene Soljak, Michael Soneji, Samir Sorensen, Reed J. D. Sposato, Luciano A. Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. Srinivasan, Vinay Stanaway, Jeffrey D. Stein, Dan J. Steinke, Sabine Stokes, Mark Andrew Strub, Bryan Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi Sunguya, Bruno F. Sur, Patrick J. Swaminathan, Soumya Sykes, Bryan L. Sylte, Dillon O. Szoeke, Cassandra E. I. Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar Tandon, Nikhil Tao, Tianchan Tarekegn, Yihunie L. Tavakkoli, Mohammad Taveira, Nuno Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw Shifa, Girma Temam Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman Tessema, Gizachew Assefa Thakur, J. S. Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman Thrift, Amanda G. Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan Topor-Madry, Roman Torre, Anna Tortajada, Miguel Tran, Bach Xuan Troeger, Christopher Truelsen, Thomas Tsoi, Derrick Tuem, Kald Beshir Tuzcu, Emin Murat Tyrovolas, Stefanos Ukwaja, Kingsley N. Uneke, Chigozie Jesse Updike, Rachel Uthman, Olalekan A. van Boven, Job F. M. van Donkelaar, Aaron Varughese, Santosh Vasankari, Tommi Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy Vidavalur, Ramesh Violante, Francesco S. Vladimirov, Sergey K. Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich Vollset, Stein Emil Vos, Theo Wadilo, Fiseha Wakayo, Tolassa Wallin, Mitchell T. Wang, Yuan-Pang Weichenthal, Scott Weiderpass, Elisabete Weintraub, Robert G. Weiss, Daniel J. Werdecker, Andrea Westerman, Ronny Whiteford, Harvey A. Wijeratne, Tissa Wiysonge, Charles Shey Woldeyes, Belete Getahun Wolfe, Charles D. A. Woodbrook, Rachel Xavier, Denis Xu, Gelin Yadgir, Simon Yakob, Bereket Yan, Lijing L. Yano, Yuichiro Yaseri, Mehdi Ye, Pengpeng Yimam, Hassen Hamid Yip, Paul Yonemoto, Naohiro Yoon, Seok-Jun Yotebieng, Marcel Younis, Mustafa Z. Zaidi, Zoubida Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed Zavala-Arciniega, Luis Zhang, Xueying Zipkin, Ben Zodpey, Sanjay Lim, Stephen S. Murray, Christopher J. L. 2017 https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2914416 eng eng Elsevier Science Inc info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/0140-6736 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1474-547X info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000410630000007 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/28916366 https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2914416 info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article doc-type:article text 2017 ftubbiepub https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X 2022-02-08T22:35:19Z Fullman N, Barber RM, Abajobir AA, et al. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. LANCET . 2017;390(10100):1423-1459. Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland PUB - Publications at Bielefeld University The Lancet 390 10100 1423 1459 |