The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe
This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipi...
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ftubarcepubl:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/63123 2024-02-11T10:06:19+01:00 The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe Bladé, Ileana Fortuny Almiñana, Didac Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van Liebmann, Brant 2012-08-25 18 p. application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2445/63123 eng eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) Reproducció del document publicat a: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017816 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2012, vol. 117, num. D16104, p. 1-18 Articles publicats en revistes (Física Quàntica i Astrofísica) http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017816 2169-897X http://hdl.handle.net/2445/63123 644582 (c) American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2012 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Precipitacions (Meteorologia) Mediterrània (Regió) Previsió del temps Europa Sequeres Canvi climàtic Precipitations (Meteorology) Mediterranean Region Weather forecasting Europe Droughts Climatic change info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2012 ftubarcepubl https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017816 2024-01-24T00:57:39Z This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 117 D16 n/a n/a |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona |
op_collection_id |
ftubarcepubl |
language |
English |
topic |
Precipitacions (Meteorologia) Mediterrània (Regió) Previsió del temps Europa Sequeres Canvi climàtic Precipitations (Meteorology) Mediterranean Region Weather forecasting Europe Droughts Climatic change |
spellingShingle |
Precipitacions (Meteorologia) Mediterrània (Regió) Previsió del temps Europa Sequeres Canvi climàtic Precipitations (Meteorology) Mediterranean Region Weather forecasting Europe Droughts Climatic change Bladé, Ileana Fortuny Almiñana, Didac Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van Liebmann, Brant The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
topic_facet |
Precipitacions (Meteorologia) Mediterrània (Regió) Previsió del temps Europa Sequeres Canvi climàtic Precipitations (Meteorology) Mediterranean Region Weather forecasting Europe Droughts Climatic change |
description |
This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bladé, Ileana Fortuny Almiñana, Didac Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van Liebmann, Brant |
author_facet |
Bladé, Ileana Fortuny Almiñana, Didac Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van Liebmann, Brant |
author_sort |
Bladé, Ileana |
title |
The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
title_short |
The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
title_full |
The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
title_fullStr |
The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
title_sort |
summer north atlantic oscillation in cmip3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in europe |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2445/63123 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Reproducció del document publicat a: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017816 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2012, vol. 117, num. D16104, p. 1-18 Articles publicats en revistes (Física Quàntica i Astrofísica) http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017816 2169-897X http://hdl.handle.net/2445/63123 644582 |
op_rights |
(c) American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2012 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017816 |
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Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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117 |
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D16 |
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