Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth
Màster de Meteorologia, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2020-2021, Tutors: Froila Palmeiro Nuñez, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega The climate system is changing with unprecedented consequences for the environment and many socioeconomic sectors. Hence the importance of predicting the...
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ftubarcepubl:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/180439 2024-02-11T10:06:37+01:00 Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth Ruiz de Morales Céspedes, Jaume Palmeiro Núñez, Froila Bilbao, Roberto Ortega, Pablo 2021 11 p. application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2445/180439 eng eng Màster Oficial - Meteorologia http://hdl.handle.net/2445/180439 cc-by-nc-nd (c) Ruiz de Morales, 2021 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Previsió del temps Predicció climàtica decadal Conca oceànica Treballs de fi de màster Weather forecasting Decadal climate predictions Oceanic basin Master's theses info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis 2021 ftubarcepubl 2024-01-24T01:16:04Z Màster de Meteorologia, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2020-2021, Tutors: Froila Palmeiro Nuñez, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega The climate system is changing with unprecedented consequences for the environment and many socioeconomic sectors. Hence the importance of predicting these changes. This study aims to produce an evaluation of the predictive skill in a decadal prediction system performed with EC-Earth. It specifically targets three variables of high relevance for human activities, such as sea surface temperature, the sea surface height anomaly (which quantifies sea level rise) and the total cloud cover (which is critical for storm development). The evaluation has mostly focused on two major ocean basins (Pacific and Atlantic), where important modes of variability like the El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability take place, and also on the Equatorial stratosphere, where the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, a highly predictable mode, occurs. Concerning the results, we have shown high prediction skill for all variables in the first forecast year. In the following years, we note a general reduction of the predictive skill, particularly in the southeastern Tropical Pacific, which might point to deficiencies in the model to simulate ENSO periodicity and/or regionality. Furthermore, a general lack of skill in the North Atlantic, may imply that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, at least in EC-Earth, is not a source of sea level predictability. Regarding the QBO, results have shown a high prediction skill, especially in the first 29 months. However, the QBO cycle periodicity is not well represented by EC-Earth, which degrades the credibility of the predictions in the subsequent forecast years Master Thesis North Atlantic Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona Ortega ENVELOPE(-57.950,-57.950,-63.950,-63.950) Pablo ENVELOPE(-63.717,-63.717,-64.283,-64.283) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona |
op_collection_id |
ftubarcepubl |
language |
English |
topic |
Previsió del temps Predicció climàtica decadal Conca oceànica Treballs de fi de màster Weather forecasting Decadal climate predictions Oceanic basin Master's theses |
spellingShingle |
Previsió del temps Predicció climàtica decadal Conca oceànica Treballs de fi de màster Weather forecasting Decadal climate predictions Oceanic basin Master's theses Ruiz de Morales Céspedes, Jaume Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth |
topic_facet |
Previsió del temps Predicció climàtica decadal Conca oceànica Treballs de fi de màster Weather forecasting Decadal climate predictions Oceanic basin Master's theses |
description |
Màster de Meteorologia, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2020-2021, Tutors: Froila Palmeiro Nuñez, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega The climate system is changing with unprecedented consequences for the environment and many socioeconomic sectors. Hence the importance of predicting these changes. This study aims to produce an evaluation of the predictive skill in a decadal prediction system performed with EC-Earth. It specifically targets three variables of high relevance for human activities, such as sea surface temperature, the sea surface height anomaly (which quantifies sea level rise) and the total cloud cover (which is critical for storm development). The evaluation has mostly focused on two major ocean basins (Pacific and Atlantic), where important modes of variability like the El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability take place, and also on the Equatorial stratosphere, where the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, a highly predictable mode, occurs. Concerning the results, we have shown high prediction skill for all variables in the first forecast year. In the following years, we note a general reduction of the predictive skill, particularly in the southeastern Tropical Pacific, which might point to deficiencies in the model to simulate ENSO periodicity and/or regionality. Furthermore, a general lack of skill in the North Atlantic, may imply that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, at least in EC-Earth, is not a source of sea level predictability. Regarding the QBO, results have shown a high prediction skill, especially in the first 29 months. However, the QBO cycle periodicity is not well represented by EC-Earth, which degrades the credibility of the predictions in the subsequent forecast years |
author2 |
Palmeiro Núñez, Froila Bilbao, Roberto Ortega, Pablo |
format |
Master Thesis |
author |
Ruiz de Morales Céspedes, Jaume |
author_facet |
Ruiz de Morales Céspedes, Jaume |
author_sort |
Ruiz de Morales Céspedes, Jaume |
title |
Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth |
title_short |
Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth |
title_full |
Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth |
title_fullStr |
Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth |
title_sort |
skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with ec-earth |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2445/180439 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-57.950,-57.950,-63.950,-63.950) ENVELOPE(-63.717,-63.717,-64.283,-64.283) |
geographic |
Ortega Pablo |
geographic_facet |
Ortega Pablo |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Màster Oficial - Meteorologia http://hdl.handle.net/2445/180439 |
op_rights |
cc-by-nc-nd (c) Ruiz de Morales, 2021 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1790604428085035008 |