The start of frozen dates over northern permafrost regions with the changing climate
The soil freeze-thaw cycle in the permafrost regions has a significant impact on regional surface energy and water balance. Although increasing efforts have been made to understand the responses of spring thawing to climate change, the mechanisms controlling the global interannual variability of the...
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ftuabarcelonapb:oai:ddd.uab.cat:284324 2024-09-15T18:29:37+00:00 The start of frozen dates over northern permafrost regions with the changing climate Li, Jialing Wu, Chaoyang Peñuelas, Josep Ran, Youhua Zhang, Yongguang 2023 https://ddd.uab.cat/record/284324 eng eng European Commission 610028 Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2019−110521GB-I00 Global change biology Vol. 29, issue 16 (Aug. 2023), p. 4556-4568 https://ddd.uab.cat/record/284324 urn:10.1111/gcb.16752 urn:oai:ddd.uab.cat:284324 urn:articleid:13652486v29n16p4556 embargoed access Tots els drets reservats. https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ Climate warming Permafrost Start of frozen Start of thawing Article 2023 ftuabarcelonapb 2024-08-06T14:30:51Z The soil freeze-thaw cycle in the permafrost regions has a significant impact on regional surface energy and water balance. Although increasing efforts have been made to understand the responses of spring thawing to climate change, the mechanisms controlling the global interannual variability of the start date of permafrost frozen (SOF) remain unclear. Using long-term SOF from the combinations of multiple satellite microwave sensors between 1979 and 2020, and analytical techniques, including partial correlation, ridge regression, path analysis, and machine learning, we explored the responses of SOF to multiple climate change factors, including warming (surface and air temperature), start date of permafrost thawing (SOT), soil properties (soil temperature and volume of water), and the snow depth water equivalent (SDWE). Overall, climate warming exhibited the maximum control on SOF, but SOT in spring was also an important driver of SOF variability; among the 65.9% significant SOT and SOF correlations, 79.3% were positive, indicating an overall earlier thawing would contribute to an earlier frozen in winter. The machine learning analysis also suggested that apart from warming, SOT ranked as the second most important determinant of SOF. Therefore, we identified the mechanism responsible for the SOT-SOF relationship using the SEM analysis, which revealed that soil temperature change exhibited the maximum effect on this relationship, irrespective of the permafrost type. Finally, we analyzed the temporal changes in these responses using the moving window approach and found increased effect of soil warming on SOF. In conclusion, these results provide important insights into understanding and predicting SOF variations with future climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona: Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona: Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB |
op_collection_id |
ftuabarcelonapb |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate warming Permafrost Start of frozen Start of thawing |
spellingShingle |
Climate warming Permafrost Start of frozen Start of thawing Li, Jialing Wu, Chaoyang Peñuelas, Josep Ran, Youhua Zhang, Yongguang The start of frozen dates over northern permafrost regions with the changing climate |
topic_facet |
Climate warming Permafrost Start of frozen Start of thawing |
description |
The soil freeze-thaw cycle in the permafrost regions has a significant impact on regional surface energy and water balance. Although increasing efforts have been made to understand the responses of spring thawing to climate change, the mechanisms controlling the global interannual variability of the start date of permafrost frozen (SOF) remain unclear. Using long-term SOF from the combinations of multiple satellite microwave sensors between 1979 and 2020, and analytical techniques, including partial correlation, ridge regression, path analysis, and machine learning, we explored the responses of SOF to multiple climate change factors, including warming (surface and air temperature), start date of permafrost thawing (SOT), soil properties (soil temperature and volume of water), and the snow depth water equivalent (SDWE). Overall, climate warming exhibited the maximum control on SOF, but SOT in spring was also an important driver of SOF variability; among the 65.9% significant SOT and SOF correlations, 79.3% were positive, indicating an overall earlier thawing would contribute to an earlier frozen in winter. The machine learning analysis also suggested that apart from warming, SOT ranked as the second most important determinant of SOF. Therefore, we identified the mechanism responsible for the SOT-SOF relationship using the SEM analysis, which revealed that soil temperature change exhibited the maximum effect on this relationship, irrespective of the permafrost type. Finally, we analyzed the temporal changes in these responses using the moving window approach and found increased effect of soil warming on SOF. In conclusion, these results provide important insights into understanding and predicting SOF variations with future climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Li, Jialing Wu, Chaoyang Peñuelas, Josep Ran, Youhua Zhang, Yongguang |
author_facet |
Li, Jialing Wu, Chaoyang Peñuelas, Josep Ran, Youhua Zhang, Yongguang |
author_sort |
Li, Jialing |
title |
The start of frozen dates over northern permafrost regions with the changing climate |
title_short |
The start of frozen dates over northern permafrost regions with the changing climate |
title_full |
The start of frozen dates over northern permafrost regions with the changing climate |
title_fullStr |
The start of frozen dates over northern permafrost regions with the changing climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
The start of frozen dates over northern permafrost regions with the changing climate |
title_sort |
start of frozen dates over northern permafrost regions with the changing climate |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://ddd.uab.cat/record/284324 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
European Commission 610028 Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2019−110521GB-I00 Global change biology Vol. 29, issue 16 (Aug. 2023), p. 4556-4568 https://ddd.uab.cat/record/284324 urn:10.1111/gcb.16752 urn:oai:ddd.uab.cat:284324 urn:articleid:13652486v29n16p4556 |
op_rights |
embargoed access Tots els drets reservats. https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
_version_ |
1810471021151518720 |