Path-dependent reductions in CO₂ emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release
Emission budgets are defined as the cumulative amount of anthropogenic CO₂ emission compatible with a global temperature-change target. The simplicity of the concept has made it attractive to policy-makers, yet it relies on a linear approximation of the global carbon-climate system's response t...
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ftuabarcelonapb:oai:ddd.uab.cat:200796 2023-05-15T17:56:44+02:00 Path-dependent reductions in CO₂ emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release Gasser, Thomas Kechiar, Mehdi Ciais, Philippe Burke, Eleanor Kleinen, Thomas Zhu, Dan Huang, Yuanyuan Ekici, Altug 2018 application/pdf https://ddd.uab.cat/record/200796 eng eng European Commission 641816 European Commission 610028 European Commission 312979 European Commission 282700 Nature geoscience Vol. 11 (Sep. 2018), p. 830-835 https://ddd.uab.cat/record/200796 urn:10.1038/s41561-018-0227-0 urn:oai:ddd.uab.cat:200796 urn:scopus_id:85053708769 urn:wos_id:000448672100008 urn:altmetric_id:48542384 open access Tots els drets reservats. https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ Article 2018 ftuabarcelonapb 2023-02-06T21:16:15Z Emission budgets are defined as the cumulative amount of anthropogenic CO₂ emission compatible with a global temperature-change target. The simplicity of the concept has made it attractive to policy-makers, yet it relies on a linear approximation of the global carbon-climate system's response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Here we investigate how emission budgets are impacted by the inclusion of CO₂ and CH₄ emissions caused by permafrost thaw, a non-linear and tipping process of the Earth system. We use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2.1, in which parameterizations of permafrost thaw, soil organic matter decomposition and CO₂ and CH₄ emission were introduced based on four complex land surface models that specifically represent high-latitude processes. We found that permafrost carbon release makes emission budgets path dependent (that is, budgets also depend on the pathway followed to reach the target). The median remaining budget for the 2 °C target reduces by 8% (1-25%) if the target is avoided and net negative emissions prove feasible, by 13% (2-34%) if they do not prove feasible, by 16% (3-44%) if the target is overshot by 0.5 °C and by 25% (5-63%) if it is overshot by 1 °C. (Uncertainties are the minimum-to-maximum range across the permafrost models and scenarios.) For the 1.5 °C target, reductions in the median remaining budget range from ~10% to more than 100%. We conclude that the world is closer to exceeding the budget for the long-term target of the Paris Climate Agreement than previously thought. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona: Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB Nature Geoscience 11 11 830 835 |
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Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona: Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB |
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ftuabarcelonapb |
language |
English |
description |
Emission budgets are defined as the cumulative amount of anthropogenic CO₂ emission compatible with a global temperature-change target. The simplicity of the concept has made it attractive to policy-makers, yet it relies on a linear approximation of the global carbon-climate system's response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Here we investigate how emission budgets are impacted by the inclusion of CO₂ and CH₄ emissions caused by permafrost thaw, a non-linear and tipping process of the Earth system. We use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2.1, in which parameterizations of permafrost thaw, soil organic matter decomposition and CO₂ and CH₄ emission were introduced based on four complex land surface models that specifically represent high-latitude processes. We found that permafrost carbon release makes emission budgets path dependent (that is, budgets also depend on the pathway followed to reach the target). The median remaining budget for the 2 °C target reduces by 8% (1-25%) if the target is avoided and net negative emissions prove feasible, by 13% (2-34%) if they do not prove feasible, by 16% (3-44%) if the target is overshot by 0.5 °C and by 25% (5-63%) if it is overshot by 1 °C. (Uncertainties are the minimum-to-maximum range across the permafrost models and scenarios.) For the 1.5 °C target, reductions in the median remaining budget range from ~10% to more than 100%. We conclude that the world is closer to exceeding the budget for the long-term target of the Paris Climate Agreement than previously thought. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gasser, Thomas Kechiar, Mehdi Ciais, Philippe Burke, Eleanor Kleinen, Thomas Zhu, Dan Huang, Yuanyuan Ekici, Altug |
spellingShingle |
Gasser, Thomas Kechiar, Mehdi Ciais, Philippe Burke, Eleanor Kleinen, Thomas Zhu, Dan Huang, Yuanyuan Ekici, Altug Path-dependent reductions in CO₂ emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release |
author_facet |
Gasser, Thomas Kechiar, Mehdi Ciais, Philippe Burke, Eleanor Kleinen, Thomas Zhu, Dan Huang, Yuanyuan Ekici, Altug |
author_sort |
Gasser, Thomas |
title |
Path-dependent reductions in CO₂ emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release |
title_short |
Path-dependent reductions in CO₂ emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release |
title_full |
Path-dependent reductions in CO₂ emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release |
title_fullStr |
Path-dependent reductions in CO₂ emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release |
title_full_unstemmed |
Path-dependent reductions in CO₂ emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release |
title_sort |
path-dependent reductions in co₂ emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://ddd.uab.cat/record/200796 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
European Commission 641816 European Commission 610028 European Commission 312979 European Commission 282700 Nature geoscience Vol. 11 (Sep. 2018), p. 830-835 https://ddd.uab.cat/record/200796 urn:10.1038/s41561-018-0227-0 urn:oai:ddd.uab.cat:200796 urn:scopus_id:85053708769 urn:wos_id:000448672100008 urn:altmetric_id:48542384 |
op_rights |
open access Tots els drets reservats. https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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Nature Geoscience |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
11 |
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830 |
op_container_end_page |
835 |
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1766165004786073600 |