Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971-2017
The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP 2017) report identifies the Arctic as the largest regional source of land ice to global sea-level rise in the 2003-2014 period. Yet, this contextualization ignores the longer perspective from in situ records of glacier mass balance. Here, using 17 (...
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fttudelft:oai:tudelft.nl:uuid:fbeac795-9901-4852-ab73-085bd78a0730 2024-04-28T07:54:15+00:00 Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971-2017 Box, Jason E. (author) Colgan, William T. (author) Wouters, B. (author) Burgess, David O. (author) O'Neel, Shad (author) Thomson, Laura I. (author) Mernild, Sebastian H. (author) 2018-12-01 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fbeac795-9901-4852-ab73-085bd78a0730 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2ed en eng http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85060139254&partnerID=8YFLogxK Environmental Research Letters--1748-9318--98d50c76-12ff-4fdd-bb32-3aa5c808bcb2 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fbeac795-9901-4852-ab73-085bd78a0730 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2ed © 2018 Jason E. Box, William T. Colgan, B. Wouters, David O. Burgess, Shad O'Neel, Laura I. Thomson, Sebastian H. Mernild Climate change Climatology Glaciology Land ice Mass-balance Sea-Level journal article 2018 fttudelft https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2ed 2024-04-09T23:51:20Z The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP 2017) report identifies the Arctic as the largest regional source of land ice to global sea-level rise in the 2003-2014 period. Yet, this contextualization ignores the longer perspective from in situ records of glacier mass balance. Here, using 17 (>55°N latitude) glacier and ice cap mass balance series in the 1971-2017 period, we develop a semi-empirical estimate of annual sea-level contribution from seven Arctic regions by scaling the in situ records to GRACE averages. We contend that our estimate represents the most accurate Arctic land ice mass balance assessment so far available before the 1992 start of satellite altimetry. We estimate the 1971-2017 eustatic sea-level contribution from land ice north of ∼55°N to be 23.0 ±12.3mm sea-level equivalent (SLE). In all regions, the cumulative sea-level rise curves exhibit an acceleration, starting especially after 1988. Greenland is the source of 46% of the Arctic sea-level rise contribution (10.6±7.3 mm), followed by Alaska (5.7±2.2 mm), Arctic Canada (3.2 ±0.7 mm) and the Russian High Arctic (1.5 ±0.4 mm). Our annual results exhibit co-variability over a 43 year overlap (1971-2013) with the alternative dataset of Marzeion et al (2015 Cryosphere 9 2399-404) (M15). However, we find a 1.36×lower sea-level contribution, in agreement with satellite gravimetry. The IPCC Fifth Assessment report identified constraining the pre-satellite era sea-level budget as a topic of low scientific understanding that we address and specify sea-level contributions coinciding with IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) 'present day' (2005-2015) and 'recent past' (1986-2005) reference periods. We assess an Arctic land ice loss of 8.3 mm SLE during the recent past and 12.4 mm SLE during the present day. The seven regional sea-level rise contribution time series of this study are available from AMAP.no. Physical and Space Geodesy Article in Journal/Newspaper AMAP Arctic monitoring and assessment program Arctic Climate change glacier glacier glacier* Greenland Ice cap Alaska Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository Environmental Research Letters 13 12 125012 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository |
op_collection_id |
fttudelft |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change Climatology Glaciology Land ice Mass-balance Sea-Level |
spellingShingle |
Climate change Climatology Glaciology Land ice Mass-balance Sea-Level Box, Jason E. (author) Colgan, William T. (author) Wouters, B. (author) Burgess, David O. (author) O'Neel, Shad (author) Thomson, Laura I. (author) Mernild, Sebastian H. (author) Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971-2017 |
topic_facet |
Climate change Climatology Glaciology Land ice Mass-balance Sea-Level |
description |
The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP 2017) report identifies the Arctic as the largest regional source of land ice to global sea-level rise in the 2003-2014 period. Yet, this contextualization ignores the longer perspective from in situ records of glacier mass balance. Here, using 17 (>55°N latitude) glacier and ice cap mass balance series in the 1971-2017 period, we develop a semi-empirical estimate of annual sea-level contribution from seven Arctic regions by scaling the in situ records to GRACE averages. We contend that our estimate represents the most accurate Arctic land ice mass balance assessment so far available before the 1992 start of satellite altimetry. We estimate the 1971-2017 eustatic sea-level contribution from land ice north of ∼55°N to be 23.0 ±12.3mm sea-level equivalent (SLE). In all regions, the cumulative sea-level rise curves exhibit an acceleration, starting especially after 1988. Greenland is the source of 46% of the Arctic sea-level rise contribution (10.6±7.3 mm), followed by Alaska (5.7±2.2 mm), Arctic Canada (3.2 ±0.7 mm) and the Russian High Arctic (1.5 ±0.4 mm). Our annual results exhibit co-variability over a 43 year overlap (1971-2013) with the alternative dataset of Marzeion et al (2015 Cryosphere 9 2399-404) (M15). However, we find a 1.36×lower sea-level contribution, in agreement with satellite gravimetry. The IPCC Fifth Assessment report identified constraining the pre-satellite era sea-level budget as a topic of low scientific understanding that we address and specify sea-level contributions coinciding with IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) 'present day' (2005-2015) and 'recent past' (1986-2005) reference periods. We assess an Arctic land ice loss of 8.3 mm SLE during the recent past and 12.4 mm SLE during the present day. The seven regional sea-level rise contribution time series of this study are available from AMAP.no. Physical and Space Geodesy |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Box, Jason E. (author) Colgan, William T. (author) Wouters, B. (author) Burgess, David O. (author) O'Neel, Shad (author) Thomson, Laura I. (author) Mernild, Sebastian H. (author) |
author_facet |
Box, Jason E. (author) Colgan, William T. (author) Wouters, B. (author) Burgess, David O. (author) O'Neel, Shad (author) Thomson, Laura I. (author) Mernild, Sebastian H. (author) |
author_sort |
Box, Jason E. (author) |
title |
Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971-2017 |
title_short |
Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971-2017 |
title_full |
Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971-2017 |
title_fullStr |
Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971-2017 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971-2017 |
title_sort |
global sea-level contribution from arctic land ice: 1971-2017 |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fbeac795-9901-4852-ab73-085bd78a0730 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2ed |
genre |
AMAP Arctic monitoring and assessment program Arctic Climate change glacier glacier glacier* Greenland Ice cap Alaska |
genre_facet |
AMAP Arctic monitoring and assessment program Arctic Climate change glacier glacier glacier* Greenland Ice cap Alaska |
op_relation |
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85060139254&partnerID=8YFLogxK Environmental Research Letters--1748-9318--98d50c76-12ff-4fdd-bb32-3aa5c808bcb2 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fbeac795-9901-4852-ab73-085bd78a0730 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2ed |
op_rights |
© 2018 Jason E. Box, William T. Colgan, B. Wouters, David O. Burgess, Shad O'Neel, Laura I. Thomson, Sebastian H. Mernild |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2ed |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
125012 |
_version_ |
1797575210689363968 |