The impact of uncertain Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion: A probabilistic approach for a data-scarce environment in the Caribbean
Sandy beaches comprise large parts of the world's shorelines and act as a natural buffer for many exposed people and assets that are concentrated in the coastal zone. Many coastal communities are vulnerable to the impact of sea-level rise (SLR) that can amplify the episodic erosion from storms...
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Master Thesis |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cc082fce-3b7d-408d-b259-aaa45125847b |
id |
fttudelft:oai:tudelft.nl:uuid:cc082fce-3b7d-408d-b259-aaa45125847b |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttudelft:oai:tudelft.nl:uuid:cc082fce-3b7d-408d-b259-aaa45125847b 2023-07-30T03:57:55+02:00 The impact of uncertain Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion: A probabilistic approach for a data-scarce environment in the Caribbean Verschuur, Jasper (author) Katsman, C.A. (mentor) Aarninkhof, S.G.J. (mentor) de Vries, S. (mentor) Drijfhout, Sybren (mentor) Le Bars, D (mentor) Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution) 2018-09-14 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cc082fce-3b7d-408d-b259-aaa45125847b en eng http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cc082fce-3b7d-408d-b259-aaa45125847b © 2018 Jasper Verschuur Antarctica Sea-level rise decision-making Coastal erosion risk master thesis 2018 fttudelft 2023-07-08T20:22:10Z Sandy beaches comprise large parts of the world's shorelines and act as a natural buffer for many exposed people and assets that are concentrated in the coastal zone. Many coastal communities are vulnerable to the impact of sea-level rise (SLR) that can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive structural erosion. The way communities adapt to SLR hinge critically on future SLR projections. One of the major uncertainties is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) that can accelerate sea-level rise, albeit neglected in the latest SLR estimates of the 'Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'. Accounting for rapid AIS mass loss in coastal impact assessments is essential for risk-averse coastal managers that disfavour events with large consequences. Although methods to predict future erosion estimates under SLR have been developed, hitherto no study has assessed the impact of different cases of AIS dynamics to erosion estimates. Here, a case-study to the island of Sint Maarten is considered to evaluate the implications for strategies to manage coastal erosion under SLR uncertainty. Regional SLR projections are made for a case consistent with the IPCC, a case with a skewed probability distribution function of the AIS dynamics and a high-end scenario of Antarctic mass loss. SLR projections are incorporated within a probabilistic erosion framework using synthetic storm time series for two beaches on the island. Future retreat distances from storms and long term coastal recession are calculated, and the different scenarios are compared and contrasted. For a future 1/100 year retreat distance of storm erosion, often used for zoning policies, estimates may be exceeded up to 1.11-2.22 times as frequent for inclusion of skewness, and 2.22-67 times as frequent for the high-end scenario compared to the IPCC case. These numbers further increase when additional climate model uncertainty is introduced. In terms of long-term recession, the 1% exceedance probability ... Master Thesis Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository Antarctic The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository |
op_collection_id |
fttudelft |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctica Sea-level rise decision-making Coastal erosion risk |
spellingShingle |
Antarctica Sea-level rise decision-making Coastal erosion risk Verschuur, Jasper (author) The impact of uncertain Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion: A probabilistic approach for a data-scarce environment in the Caribbean |
topic_facet |
Antarctica Sea-level rise decision-making Coastal erosion risk |
description |
Sandy beaches comprise large parts of the world's shorelines and act as a natural buffer for many exposed people and assets that are concentrated in the coastal zone. Many coastal communities are vulnerable to the impact of sea-level rise (SLR) that can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive structural erosion. The way communities adapt to SLR hinge critically on future SLR projections. One of the major uncertainties is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) that can accelerate sea-level rise, albeit neglected in the latest SLR estimates of the 'Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'. Accounting for rapid AIS mass loss in coastal impact assessments is essential for risk-averse coastal managers that disfavour events with large consequences. Although methods to predict future erosion estimates under SLR have been developed, hitherto no study has assessed the impact of different cases of AIS dynamics to erosion estimates. Here, a case-study to the island of Sint Maarten is considered to evaluate the implications for strategies to manage coastal erosion under SLR uncertainty. Regional SLR projections are made for a case consistent with the IPCC, a case with a skewed probability distribution function of the AIS dynamics and a high-end scenario of Antarctic mass loss. SLR projections are incorporated within a probabilistic erosion framework using synthetic storm time series for two beaches on the island. Future retreat distances from storms and long term coastal recession are calculated, and the different scenarios are compared and contrasted. For a future 1/100 year retreat distance of storm erosion, often used for zoning policies, estimates may be exceeded up to 1.11-2.22 times as frequent for inclusion of skewness, and 2.22-67 times as frequent for the high-end scenario compared to the IPCC case. These numbers further increase when additional climate model uncertainty is introduced. In terms of long-term recession, the 1% exceedance probability ... |
author2 |
Katsman, C.A. (mentor) Aarninkhof, S.G.J. (mentor) de Vries, S. (mentor) Drijfhout, Sybren (mentor) Le Bars, D (mentor) Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution) |
format |
Master Thesis |
author |
Verschuur, Jasper (author) |
author_facet |
Verschuur, Jasper (author) |
author_sort |
Verschuur, Jasper (author) |
title |
The impact of uncertain Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion: A probabilistic approach for a data-scarce environment in the Caribbean |
title_short |
The impact of uncertain Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion: A probabilistic approach for a data-scarce environment in the Caribbean |
title_full |
The impact of uncertain Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion: A probabilistic approach for a data-scarce environment in the Caribbean |
title_fullStr |
The impact of uncertain Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion: A probabilistic approach for a data-scarce environment in the Caribbean |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of uncertain Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion: A probabilistic approach for a data-scarce environment in the Caribbean |
title_sort |
impact of uncertain antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion: a probabilistic approach for a data-scarce environment in the caribbean |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cc082fce-3b7d-408d-b259-aaa45125847b |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cc082fce-3b7d-408d-b259-aaa45125847b |
op_rights |
© 2018 Jasper Verschuur |
_version_ |
1772820263473250304 |