Differences between arctic interannual and decadal variability across climate states
Long-term climate variations have the potential to amplify or dampen (human-induced) trends in temperature. Understanding natural climate variability is therefore of vital importance, especially since the variability itself may change with a changing climate. Here, we quantify the magnitude and othe...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c178d83c-bf2d-483d-92b2-5f2cad49b4b8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0672.1 |
id |
fttudelft:oai:tudelft.nl:uuid:c178d83c-bf2d-483d-92b2-5f2cad49b4b8 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttudelft:oai:tudelft.nl:uuid:c178d83c-bf2d-483d-92b2-5f2cad49b4b8 2024-04-28T08:05:50+00:00 Differences between arctic interannual and decadal variability across climate states Reusen, J.M. (author) van der Linden, Eveline (author) Bintanja, Richard (author) 2019-09-01 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c178d83c-bf2d-483d-92b2-5f2cad49b4b8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0672.1 en eng http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85074783958&partnerID=8YFLogxK Journal of Climate--0894-8755--af6dad57-3013-49e4-843c-5146784559e9 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c178d83c-bf2d-483d-92b2-5f2cad49b4b8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0672.1 © 2019 J.M. Reusen, Eveline van der Linden, Richard Bintanja journal article 2019 fttudelft https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0672.1 2024-04-09T23:57:24Z Long-term climate variations have the potential to amplify or dampen (human-induced) trends in temperature. Understanding natural climate variability is therefore of vital importance, especially since the variability itself may change with a changing climate. Here, we quantify the magnitude and other characteristics of interannual to decadal variability in Arctic temperature and their dependence on the climate state. Moreover, we identify the processes responsible for the state dependency of the variations, using five quasi-equilibrium climate simulations of a state-of-the-art global climate model with 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 times present-day atmospheric CO 2 forcing. The natural fluctuations in Arctic temperature, including their dependence on the state of the climate, are linked to anomalous atmospheric and oceanic heat transports toward the Arctic. Model results suggest that atmospheric heat transport leads (and also controls) Arctic temperature variations on interannual time scales, whereas oceanic transport is found to govern the fluctuations on decadal time scales. This time-scale transition of atmospheric to oceanic dominance for Arctic temperature variations is most obvious when there is interannual to decadal variability in Arctic sea ice cover. In warm climates (without Arctic sea ice cover), there is no correlation between oceanic transport and surface air temperature on any time scale. In cold climates (with full Arctic sea ice cover), interaction between ocean and atmosphere is limited, leaving poleward atmospheric heat transport to be the primary driver on all time scales (interannual and decadal). Astrodynamics & Space Missions Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository Journal of Climate 32 18 6035 6050 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository |
op_collection_id |
fttudelft |
language |
English |
description |
Long-term climate variations have the potential to amplify or dampen (human-induced) trends in temperature. Understanding natural climate variability is therefore of vital importance, especially since the variability itself may change with a changing climate. Here, we quantify the magnitude and other characteristics of interannual to decadal variability in Arctic temperature and their dependence on the climate state. Moreover, we identify the processes responsible for the state dependency of the variations, using five quasi-equilibrium climate simulations of a state-of-the-art global climate model with 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 times present-day atmospheric CO 2 forcing. The natural fluctuations in Arctic temperature, including their dependence on the state of the climate, are linked to anomalous atmospheric and oceanic heat transports toward the Arctic. Model results suggest that atmospheric heat transport leads (and also controls) Arctic temperature variations on interannual time scales, whereas oceanic transport is found to govern the fluctuations on decadal time scales. This time-scale transition of atmospheric to oceanic dominance for Arctic temperature variations is most obvious when there is interannual to decadal variability in Arctic sea ice cover. In warm climates (without Arctic sea ice cover), there is no correlation between oceanic transport and surface air temperature on any time scale. In cold climates (with full Arctic sea ice cover), interaction between ocean and atmosphere is limited, leaving poleward atmospheric heat transport to be the primary driver on all time scales (interannual and decadal). Astrodynamics & Space Missions |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reusen, J.M. (author) van der Linden, Eveline (author) Bintanja, Richard (author) |
spellingShingle |
Reusen, J.M. (author) van der Linden, Eveline (author) Bintanja, Richard (author) Differences between arctic interannual and decadal variability across climate states |
author_facet |
Reusen, J.M. (author) van der Linden, Eveline (author) Bintanja, Richard (author) |
author_sort |
Reusen, J.M. (author) |
title |
Differences between arctic interannual and decadal variability across climate states |
title_short |
Differences between arctic interannual and decadal variability across climate states |
title_full |
Differences between arctic interannual and decadal variability across climate states |
title_fullStr |
Differences between arctic interannual and decadal variability across climate states |
title_full_unstemmed |
Differences between arctic interannual and decadal variability across climate states |
title_sort |
differences between arctic interannual and decadal variability across climate states |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c178d83c-bf2d-483d-92b2-5f2cad49b4b8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0672.1 |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85074783958&partnerID=8YFLogxK Journal of Climate--0894-8755--af6dad57-3013-49e4-843c-5146784559e9 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c178d83c-bf2d-483d-92b2-5f2cad49b4b8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0672.1 |
op_rights |
© 2019 J.M. Reusen, Eveline van der Linden, Richard Bintanja |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0672.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
18 |
container_start_page |
6035 |
op_container_end_page |
6050 |
_version_ |
1797575635453870080 |