Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment
Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantify...
Published in: | Climatic Change |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a8d83a54-56cf-4d30-bbd3-55dd5ce3dea2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02769-4 |
id |
fttudelft:oai:tudelft.nl:uuid:a8d83a54-56cf-4d30-bbd3-55dd5ce3dea2 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
fttudelft:oai:tudelft.nl:uuid:a8d83a54-56cf-4d30-bbd3-55dd5ce3dea2 2024-02-11T09:58:25+01:00 Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment Verschuur, Jasper (author) Le Bars, Dewi (author) Katsman, C.A. (author) de Vries, S. (author) Ranasinghe, Roshanka (author) Drijfhout, Sybren S. (author) Aarninkhof, S.G.J. (author) 2020 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a8d83a54-56cf-4d30-bbd3-55dd5ce3dea2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02769-4 en eng http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85087438994&partnerID=8YFLogxK Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change--0165-0009--c11d5916-adaf-43df-a1ac-0d3038349306 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a8d83a54-56cf-4d30-bbd3-55dd5ce3dea2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02769-4 © 2020 Jasper Verschuur, Dewi Le Bars, C.A. Katsman, S. de Vries, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Sybren S. Drijfhout, S.G.J. Aarninkhof Antarctica Coastal erosion Probabilistics Rapid disintegration Sea-level rise journal article 2020 fttudelft https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02769-4 2024-01-24T23:31:58Z Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support sound risk management of coastal areas, although it is neglected in many erosion impact assessments. Here, we use the island of Sint Maarten as a case study to evaluate the impact of AIS uncertainty for future coastal recession. We estimate SLR-induced coastal recession using a probabilistic framework and compare and contrast three cases of AIS dynamics within the range of plausible futures. Results indicate that projections of coastal recession are sensitive to local morphological factors and assumptions made on how AIS dynamics are incorporated into SLR projections and that underestimating the potential rapid mass loss from the AIS can lead to ill-informed coastal adaptation decisions. Accepted author manuscript Environmental Fluid Mechanics Coastal Engineering Hydraulic Engineering Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository Antarctic The Antarctic Climatic Change 162 2 859 876 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository |
op_collection_id |
fttudelft |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctica Coastal erosion Probabilistics Rapid disintegration Sea-level rise |
spellingShingle |
Antarctica Coastal erosion Probabilistics Rapid disintegration Sea-level rise Verschuur, Jasper (author) Le Bars, Dewi (author) Katsman, C.A. (author) de Vries, S. (author) Ranasinghe, Roshanka (author) Drijfhout, Sybren S. (author) Aarninkhof, S.G.J. (author) Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment |
topic_facet |
Antarctica Coastal erosion Probabilistics Rapid disintegration Sea-level rise |
description |
Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support sound risk management of coastal areas, although it is neglected in many erosion impact assessments. Here, we use the island of Sint Maarten as a case study to evaluate the impact of AIS uncertainty for future coastal recession. We estimate SLR-induced coastal recession using a probabilistic framework and compare and contrast three cases of AIS dynamics within the range of plausible futures. Results indicate that projections of coastal recession are sensitive to local morphological factors and assumptions made on how AIS dynamics are incorporated into SLR projections and that underestimating the potential rapid mass loss from the AIS can lead to ill-informed coastal adaptation decisions. Accepted author manuscript Environmental Fluid Mechanics Coastal Engineering Hydraulic Engineering |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Verschuur, Jasper (author) Le Bars, Dewi (author) Katsman, C.A. (author) de Vries, S. (author) Ranasinghe, Roshanka (author) Drijfhout, Sybren S. (author) Aarninkhof, S.G.J. (author) |
author_facet |
Verschuur, Jasper (author) Le Bars, Dewi (author) Katsman, C.A. (author) de Vries, S. (author) Ranasinghe, Roshanka (author) Drijfhout, Sybren S. (author) Aarninkhof, S.G.J. (author) |
author_sort |
Verschuur, Jasper (author) |
title |
Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment |
title_short |
Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment |
title_full |
Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment |
title_fullStr |
Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment |
title_sort |
implications of ambiguity in antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a8d83a54-56cf-4d30-bbd3-55dd5ce3dea2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02769-4 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85087438994&partnerID=8YFLogxK Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change--0165-0009--c11d5916-adaf-43df-a1ac-0d3038349306 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a8d83a54-56cf-4d30-bbd3-55dd5ce3dea2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02769-4 |
op_rights |
© 2020 Jasper Verschuur, Dewi Le Bars, C.A. Katsman, S. de Vries, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Sybren S. Drijfhout, S.G.J. Aarninkhof |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02769-4 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
162 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
859 |
op_container_end_page |
876 |
_version_ |
1790594057300344832 |