Morphological Response of the Dutch Sandy Coast to Accelerated Sea Level Rise: A process-based modelling approach using Delft3D, applied to the Delfland coast

• Main Author: Lambert, Ingrid (author)
• Other Authors: Aarninkhof, S.G.J. (mentor), Luijendijk, A.P. (mentor), de Winter, Renske (mentor), Storms, J.E.A. (mentor), Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)
• Format: Master Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: Sea level rise; Sandy coasts; Morphodynamics; Delft3D; Coastal erosion; Process-based modelling; Climate change; Sediment transport; Antarctic; Pollard; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4d69f8c5-1481-4292-94f1-1bffe792ebc9

Accelerated sea level rise (SLR) is predicted to have multiple adverse impacts on the coastal zone, aggravating phenomena such as coastal erosion on sandy coasts. For climate change adaptation planning and informing policy, morphodynamic changes occurring at coastlines are becoming increasingly important. In this study, a calibrated Delft3D model forced by real-time wave conditions, was applied to simulate and assess the morphological behaviour of the Delfland coast in response to accelerated SLR over a 30-year time period. The calibrated Delft3D model uses a novel acceleration technique called brute-force merged (BFM) proposed by Luijendijk et al. (2019), which enables the modelling of multi-decadal predictions, with significant gain in computational effort. An assumption of the study was that no nourishments take place, i.e. no additional sediment supply. The Sand Engine (Zand Motor in Dutch), currently located along this coast was also excluded from the model, thereby assuming a straight unnourished coastline. A selection of six SLR scenarios was simulated, including a no SLR scenario used as the reference case. The chosen scenarios covered the full bandwidth of accelerated SLR projections translated for the Dutch coast up to 2100, assuming increased mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet, a hypothesis proposed by DeConto and Pollard (2016). These projections therefore exceed those presented in the IPCC AR5. Based on the recent literature, the SLR rates selected, ranging from 3 mm/year to 120 mm/year, are assumed plausible and useful for the modelling study. Model outputs that are assessed include erosion and sedimentation plots, and volume changes, particularly erosion volumes. Analysis shows that no major change to the general coastal system behaviour occurs due to accelerated SLR; erosive sections in the south remain erosive and accretive regions in the northern part remain accretive. This is influenced mainly by gradients in alongshore sediment transport and presence of structures. Erosion volumes ...