Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview
This work provides a comparison of four approaches that can be used to describe uncertainty in models of the long-term glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process. The four methods range from pessimistic to optimistic representations of GIA uncertainty. Each estimation method is applied to selected o...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth |
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fttudelft:oai:tudelft.nl:uuid:2c8bacbc-1c52-4728-b470-18500abb3c43 2024-04-28T08:18:36+00:00 Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview Simon, K.M. (author) Riva, R.E.M. (author) 2020 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2c8bacbc-1c52-4728-b470-18500abb3c43 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018983 en eng http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85089853719&partnerID=8YFLogxK JGR Solid Earth--2169-9313--accbaa2d-4cd8-4aa1-8efe-8f6b33ebdf3a http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2c8bacbc-1c52-4728-b470-18500abb3c43 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018983 © 2020 K.M. Simon, R.E.M. Riva glacial isostatic adjustment GPS model uncertainty North America relative sea level Scandinavia journal article 2020 fttudelft https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018983 2024-04-10T00:03:45Z This work provides a comparison of four approaches that can be used to describe uncertainty in models of the long-term glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process. The four methods range from pessimistic to optimistic representations of GIA uncertainty. Each estimation method is applied to selected one dimensional GIA model predictions and compared with vertical land motion data from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements across Fennoscandia and North America. The methods are evaluated relative to two main properties: (1) their expected ability to separate non-GIA from GIA signals and (2) their estimated statistical appropriateness given a specific GIA model and data set. For the first point, non-GIA signals are considered isolated from the long-term (millennial time scale) GIA signal at sites where measurement and model uncertainties do not overlap. Across methods, the frequency and accuracy with which non-GIA signals are separated from GIA signals in GPS data display both consistent similarities and disparities. For the second point, we compare model predictions with rates of vertical land motion and relative sea level change that have been cleaned of non-GIA signals to determine the most appropriate value of model uncertainty and relate the findings to the four approaches. Best fit inferences suggest that within deglaciation centers, GIA model uncertainty is up to ~2 mm/yr (vertical land motion). Likewise, away from the former ice sheet centers, GIA uncertainty for relative sea level change is inferred to be ~0.3–0.5 mm/yr along the U.S. East Coast and ~0.6–0.8 mm/yr in the North Sea. Physical and Space Geodesy Article in Journal/Newspaper Fennoscandia Ice Sheet Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 125 8 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository |
op_collection_id |
fttudelft |
language |
English |
topic |
glacial isostatic adjustment GPS model uncertainty North America relative sea level Scandinavia |
spellingShingle |
glacial isostatic adjustment GPS model uncertainty North America relative sea level Scandinavia Simon, K.M. (author) Riva, R.E.M. (author) Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview |
topic_facet |
glacial isostatic adjustment GPS model uncertainty North America relative sea level Scandinavia |
description |
This work provides a comparison of four approaches that can be used to describe uncertainty in models of the long-term glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process. The four methods range from pessimistic to optimistic representations of GIA uncertainty. Each estimation method is applied to selected one dimensional GIA model predictions and compared with vertical land motion data from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements across Fennoscandia and North America. The methods are evaluated relative to two main properties: (1) their expected ability to separate non-GIA from GIA signals and (2) their estimated statistical appropriateness given a specific GIA model and data set. For the first point, non-GIA signals are considered isolated from the long-term (millennial time scale) GIA signal at sites where measurement and model uncertainties do not overlap. Across methods, the frequency and accuracy with which non-GIA signals are separated from GIA signals in GPS data display both consistent similarities and disparities. For the second point, we compare model predictions with rates of vertical land motion and relative sea level change that have been cleaned of non-GIA signals to determine the most appropriate value of model uncertainty and relate the findings to the four approaches. Best fit inferences suggest that within deglaciation centers, GIA model uncertainty is up to ~2 mm/yr (vertical land motion). Likewise, away from the former ice sheet centers, GIA uncertainty for relative sea level change is inferred to be ~0.3–0.5 mm/yr along the U.S. East Coast and ~0.6–0.8 mm/yr in the North Sea. Physical and Space Geodesy |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Simon, K.M. (author) Riva, R.E.M. (author) |
author_facet |
Simon, K.M. (author) Riva, R.E.M. (author) |
author_sort |
Simon, K.M. (author) |
title |
Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview |
title_short |
Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview |
title_full |
Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview |
title_sort |
uncertainty estimation in regional models of long-term gia uplift and sea level change: an overview |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2c8bacbc-1c52-4728-b470-18500abb3c43 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018983 |
genre |
Fennoscandia Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Fennoscandia Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85089853719&partnerID=8YFLogxK JGR Solid Earth--2169-9313--accbaa2d-4cd8-4aa1-8efe-8f6b33ebdf3a http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2c8bacbc-1c52-4728-b470-18500abb3c43 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018983 |
op_rights |
© 2020 K.M. Simon, R.E.M. Riva |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018983 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth |
container_volume |
125 |
container_issue |
8 |
_version_ |
1797582516837679104 |