Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport
The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are u...
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Online Access: | http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1d69b715-8de5-4124-8d1f-df20f7ec562b https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 |
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fttudelft:oai:tudelft.nl:uuid:1d69b715-8de5-4124-8d1f-df20f7ec562b 2024-04-28T08:06:14+00:00 Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport Bintanja, Richard (author) van der Wiel, K. (author) van der Linden, E. C. (author) Reusen, J.M. (author) Bogerd, L. (author) 2020 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1d69b715-8de5-4124-8d1f-df20f7ec562b https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 en eng http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85079616723&partnerID=8YFLogxK Science Advances--2375-2548--245af1bf-f25d-4bef-a12e-b3737d656c21 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1d69b715-8de5-4124-8d1f-df20f7ec562b https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 © 2020 Richard Bintanja, K. van der Wiel, E. C. van der Linden, J.M. Reusen, L. Bogerd journal article 2020 fttudelft https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 2024-04-09T23:59:36Z The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts. Astrodynamics & Space Missions Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository Science Advances 6 7 eaax6869 |
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Open Polar |
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Delft University of Technology: Institutional Repository |
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fttudelft |
language |
English |
description |
The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts. Astrodynamics & Space Missions |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bintanja, Richard (author) van der Wiel, K. (author) van der Linden, E. C. (author) Reusen, J.M. (author) Bogerd, L. (author) |
spellingShingle |
Bintanja, Richard (author) van der Wiel, K. (author) van der Linden, E. C. (author) Reusen, J.M. (author) Bogerd, L. (author) Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
author_facet |
Bintanja, Richard (author) van der Wiel, K. (author) van der Linden, E. C. (author) Reusen, J.M. (author) Bogerd, L. (author) |
author_sort |
Bintanja, Richard (author) |
title |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_short |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_full |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_fullStr |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_full_unstemmed |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_sort |
strong future increases in arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1d69b715-8de5-4124-8d1f-df20f7ec562b https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85079616723&partnerID=8YFLogxK Science Advances--2375-2548--245af1bf-f25d-4bef-a12e-b3737d656c21 http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1d69b715-8de5-4124-8d1f-df20f7ec562b https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 |
op_rights |
© 2020 Richard Bintanja, K. van der Wiel, E. C. van der Linden, J.M. Reusen, L. Bogerd |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 |
container_title |
Science Advances |
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6 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
eaax6869 |
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1797575842717499392 |