Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data
We present statistical methods to determine climate regimes for the last glacial period using three temperature proxy records from Greenland: measurements of δ18O from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) and the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) us...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:yWVIGxGYvRix_o9xQxCVT 2023-05-15T16:23:12+02:00 Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data Peavoy, D. Franzke, C. 2018-09-27 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/6/787/2010/ en eng doi:10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 10670/1.3265na https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/6/787/2010/ undefined Geographica Helvetica - geography eISSN: 1814-9332 envir geo Text https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_18cf/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 2023-01-22T18:11:49Z We present statistical methods to determine climate regimes for the last glacial period using three temperature proxy records from Greenland: measurements of δ18O from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) and the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) using different timescales. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is presented to infer the number of states in a latent variable model along with their associated parameters. By using Bayesian model comparison methods we find that a model with 3 states is sufficient. These states correspond to a gradual cooling during the Greenland Interstadials, more rapid temperature decrease into Greenland Stadial and to the sudden rebound temperature increase at the onset of Greenland Interstadials. We investigate the recurrence properties of the onset of Greenland Interstadials and find no evidence to reject the null hypothesis of randomly timed events. Text Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project Greenland Ice Sheet Project GRIP ice core Ice Sheet NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project Unknown Greenland Climate of the Past 6 6 787 794 |
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envir geo Peavoy, D. Franzke, C. Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data |
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envir geo |
description |
We present statistical methods to determine climate regimes for the last glacial period using three temperature proxy records from Greenland: measurements of δ18O from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) and the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) using different timescales. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is presented to infer the number of states in a latent variable model along with their associated parameters. By using Bayesian model comparison methods we find that a model with 3 states is sufficient. These states correspond to a gradual cooling during the Greenland Interstadials, more rapid temperature decrease into Greenland Stadial and to the sudden rebound temperature increase at the onset of Greenland Interstadials. We investigate the recurrence properties of the onset of Greenland Interstadials and find no evidence to reject the null hypothesis of randomly timed events. |
format |
Text |
author |
Peavoy, D. Franzke, C. |
author_facet |
Peavoy, D. Franzke, C. |
author_sort |
Peavoy, D. |
title |
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data |
title_short |
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data |
title_full |
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data |
title_fullStr |
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data |
title_sort |
bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using greenland δ18o data |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/6/787/2010/ |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project Greenland Ice Sheet Project GRIP ice core Ice Sheet NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland Ice core Project Greenland Ice Sheet Project GRIP ice core Ice Sheet NGRIP North Greenland North Greenland Ice Core Project |
op_source |
Geographica Helvetica - geography eISSN: 1814-9332 |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 10670/1.3265na https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/6/787/2010/ |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
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6 |
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6 |
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787 |
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794 |
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