Visions of the Arctic Future: Blending Computational Text Analysis and Structured Futuring to Create Story‐Based Scenarios
Abstract The future of Arctic social systems and natural environments is highly uncertain. Climate change will lead to unprecedented phenomena in the pan‐Arctic region, such as regular shipping traffic through the Arctic Ocean, urban growth, military activity, expanding agricultural frontiers, and t...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002206 https://doaj.org/article/ffdb7198d26243f5a13efb9c29c79fd6 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:ffdb7198d26243f5a13efb9c29c79fd6 2023-05-15T14:32:56+02:00 Visions of the Arctic Future: Blending Computational Text Analysis and Structured Futuring to Create Story‐Based Scenarios P. W. Keys A. E. Meyer 2022-03-01 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002206 https://doaj.org/article/ffdb7198d26243f5a13efb9c29c79fd6 en eng Wiley 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2021EF002206 https://doaj.org/article/ffdb7198d26243f5a13efb9c29c79fd6 undefined Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) Arctic future scenarios machine learning story text analysis socio Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2022 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002206 2023-01-22T19:34:11Z Abstract The future of Arctic social systems and natural environments is highly uncertain. Climate change will lead to unprecedented phenomena in the pan‐Arctic region, such as regular shipping traffic through the Arctic Ocean, urban growth, military activity, expanding agricultural frontiers, and transformed Indigenous societies. While intergovernmental to local organizations have produced numerous synthesis‐based visions of the future, a challenge in any scenario exercise is capturing the “possibility” space of change. In this work, we employ a computational text analysis to generate unique thematic input for novel, story‐based visions of the Arctic. Specifically, we develop a corpus of more than 2,000 articles in publicly accessible, English‐language Arctic newspapers that discuss the future in the Arctic. We then perform a latent Dirichlet allocation, resulting in 10 distinct topics and sets of associated keywords. From these topics and keywords, we design ten story‐based scenarios employing the Mānoa mashup, science fiction prototyping, and other methods. Our results demonstrate that computational text analysis can feed directly into a creative futuring process, whereby the output stories can be traced clearly back to the original topics and keywords. We discuss our findings in the context of the broader field of Arctic scenarios and show that the results of this computational text analysis produce complementary stories to the existing scenario literature. We conclude that story‐based scenarios can provide vital texture toward understanding the myriad possible Arctic futures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Unknown Arctic Arctic Ocean Earth's Future 10 3 |
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Arctic future scenarios machine learning story text analysis socio |
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Arctic future scenarios machine learning story text analysis socio P. W. Keys A. E. Meyer Visions of the Arctic Future: Blending Computational Text Analysis and Structured Futuring to Create Story‐Based Scenarios |
topic_facet |
Arctic future scenarios machine learning story text analysis socio |
description |
Abstract The future of Arctic social systems and natural environments is highly uncertain. Climate change will lead to unprecedented phenomena in the pan‐Arctic region, such as regular shipping traffic through the Arctic Ocean, urban growth, military activity, expanding agricultural frontiers, and transformed Indigenous societies. While intergovernmental to local organizations have produced numerous synthesis‐based visions of the future, a challenge in any scenario exercise is capturing the “possibility” space of change. In this work, we employ a computational text analysis to generate unique thematic input for novel, story‐based visions of the Arctic. Specifically, we develop a corpus of more than 2,000 articles in publicly accessible, English‐language Arctic newspapers that discuss the future in the Arctic. We then perform a latent Dirichlet allocation, resulting in 10 distinct topics and sets of associated keywords. From these topics and keywords, we design ten story‐based scenarios employing the Mānoa mashup, science fiction prototyping, and other methods. Our results demonstrate that computational text analysis can feed directly into a creative futuring process, whereby the output stories can be traced clearly back to the original topics and keywords. We discuss our findings in the context of the broader field of Arctic scenarios and show that the results of this computational text analysis produce complementary stories to the existing scenario literature. We conclude that story‐based scenarios can provide vital texture toward understanding the myriad possible Arctic futures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
P. W. Keys A. E. Meyer |
author_facet |
P. W. Keys A. E. Meyer |
author_sort |
P. W. Keys |
title |
Visions of the Arctic Future: Blending Computational Text Analysis and Structured Futuring to Create Story‐Based Scenarios |
title_short |
Visions of the Arctic Future: Blending Computational Text Analysis and Structured Futuring to Create Story‐Based Scenarios |
title_full |
Visions of the Arctic Future: Blending Computational Text Analysis and Structured Futuring to Create Story‐Based Scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Visions of the Arctic Future: Blending Computational Text Analysis and Structured Futuring to Create Story‐Based Scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Visions of the Arctic Future: Blending Computational Text Analysis and Structured Futuring to Create Story‐Based Scenarios |
title_sort |
visions of the arctic future: blending computational text analysis and structured futuring to create story‐based scenarios |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002206 https://doaj.org/article/ffdb7198d26243f5a13efb9c29c79fd6 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change |
op_source |
Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) |
op_relation |
2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2021EF002206 https://doaj.org/article/ffdb7198d26243f5a13efb9c29c79fd6 |
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op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002206 |
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Earth's Future |
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10 |
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3 |
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