21st-century climate change around Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland: From the ice sheet to the shores of Davis Strait
Using regional climate-model runs with a horizontal resolution of 5.5 km for two future scenarios and two time slices (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5; 2031–2050 and 2081–2100) relative to a historical period (1991–2010), we study the climate change for the Qeqqata municipalit...
Published in: | Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2018
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2017.1420862 https://doaj.org/article/fcd6ad9499f54c1988f0e763aa979b7d |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:fcd6ad9499f54c1988f0e763aa979b7d 2023-05-15T14:14:18+02:00 21st-century climate change around Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland: From the ice sheet to the shores of Davis Strait F. Boberg P. L. Langen R. H. Mottram J. H. Christensen M. Olesen 2018-01-01 https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2017.1420862 https://doaj.org/article/fcd6ad9499f54c1988f0e763aa979b7d en eng Taylor & Francis Group 1523-0430 1938-4246 doi:10.1080/15230430.2017.1420862 https://doaj.org/article/fcd6ad9499f54c1988f0e763aa979b7d undefined Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol 50, Iss 1 (2018) climate change regional climate modeling surface mass balance kangerlussuaq geo envir Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2017.1420862 2023-01-22T18:03:24Z Using regional climate-model runs with a horizontal resolution of 5.5 km for two future scenarios and two time slices (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5; 2031–2050 and 2081–2100) relative to a historical period (1991–2010), we study the climate change for the Qeqqata municipality in general and for Kangerlussuaq in particular. The climate-model runs are validated against observations of temperature and surface mass balance and a reanalysis simulation with the same model setup as the scenario runs, providing high confidence in the results. Clear increases in temperature and precipitation for the end of the 21st century are shown, both on and off the ice sheet, with an off–ice sheet mean annual temperature increase of 2.5–3°C for the RCP4.5 scenario and 4.8–6.0°C for the RCP8.5 scenario, and for precipitation an increase of 20–30% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 30–80% for the RCP8.5 scenario. Climate analogs for Kangerlussuaq for temperature and precipitation are provided, indicating that end-of-the-century Kangerlussuaq mean annual temperature is comparable with temperatures for the south of Greenland today. The extent of glacial retreat is also estimated for the Qeqqata municipality, suggesting that most of the ice caps south of the Kangerlussuaq fjord will be gone before the end of this century. Furthermore, the high-resolution runs are compared with an ensemble of six models run at a 50 km resolution, showing the need for high-resolution model simulations over Greenland. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Davis Strait Greenland Ice Sheet Kangerlussuaq Qeqqata Unknown Greenland Kangerlussuaq ENVELOPE(-55.633,-55.633,72.633,72.633) Qeqqata ENVELOPE(-53.675,-53.675,66.933,66.933) Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 50 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change regional climate modeling surface mass balance kangerlussuaq geo envir |
spellingShingle |
climate change regional climate modeling surface mass balance kangerlussuaq geo envir F. Boberg P. L. Langen R. H. Mottram J. H. Christensen M. Olesen 21st-century climate change around Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland: From the ice sheet to the shores of Davis Strait |
topic_facet |
climate change regional climate modeling surface mass balance kangerlussuaq geo envir |
description |
Using regional climate-model runs with a horizontal resolution of 5.5 km for two future scenarios and two time slices (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5; 2031–2050 and 2081–2100) relative to a historical period (1991–2010), we study the climate change for the Qeqqata municipality in general and for Kangerlussuaq in particular. The climate-model runs are validated against observations of temperature and surface mass balance and a reanalysis simulation with the same model setup as the scenario runs, providing high confidence in the results. Clear increases in temperature and precipitation for the end of the 21st century are shown, both on and off the ice sheet, with an off–ice sheet mean annual temperature increase of 2.5–3°C for the RCP4.5 scenario and 4.8–6.0°C for the RCP8.5 scenario, and for precipitation an increase of 20–30% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 30–80% for the RCP8.5 scenario. Climate analogs for Kangerlussuaq for temperature and precipitation are provided, indicating that end-of-the-century Kangerlussuaq mean annual temperature is comparable with temperatures for the south of Greenland today. The extent of glacial retreat is also estimated for the Qeqqata municipality, suggesting that most of the ice caps south of the Kangerlussuaq fjord will be gone before the end of this century. Furthermore, the high-resolution runs are compared with an ensemble of six models run at a 50 km resolution, showing the need for high-resolution model simulations over Greenland. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
F. Boberg P. L. Langen R. H. Mottram J. H. Christensen M. Olesen |
author_facet |
F. Boberg P. L. Langen R. H. Mottram J. H. Christensen M. Olesen |
author_sort |
F. Boberg |
title |
21st-century climate change around Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland: From the ice sheet to the shores of Davis Strait |
title_short |
21st-century climate change around Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland: From the ice sheet to the shores of Davis Strait |
title_full |
21st-century climate change around Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland: From the ice sheet to the shores of Davis Strait |
title_fullStr |
21st-century climate change around Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland: From the ice sheet to the shores of Davis Strait |
title_full_unstemmed |
21st-century climate change around Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland: From the ice sheet to the shores of Davis Strait |
title_sort |
21st-century climate change around kangerlussuaq, west greenland: from the ice sheet to the shores of davis strait |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis Group |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2017.1420862 https://doaj.org/article/fcd6ad9499f54c1988f0e763aa979b7d |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-55.633,-55.633,72.633,72.633) ENVELOPE(-53.675,-53.675,66.933,66.933) |
geographic |
Greenland Kangerlussuaq Qeqqata |
geographic_facet |
Greenland Kangerlussuaq Qeqqata |
genre |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Davis Strait Greenland Ice Sheet Kangerlussuaq Qeqqata |
genre_facet |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Davis Strait Greenland Ice Sheet Kangerlussuaq Qeqqata |
op_source |
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol 50, Iss 1 (2018) |
op_relation |
1523-0430 1938-4246 doi:10.1080/15230430.2017.1420862 https://doaj.org/article/fcd6ad9499f54c1988f0e763aa979b7d |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2017.1420862 |
container_title |
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766286841559908352 |