Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model
The fully coupled climate model HadGEM1 produces one of the most accurate simulations of the historical record of Arctic sea ice seen in the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble. In this study, we examine projections of sea ice decline out to 2030, produced by two ensembles of HadGEM1 with natural and anth...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:fc6aac0e4f0e4c979416c469c04b8710 2023-05-15T14:51:43+02:00 Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model A. E. West A. B. Keen H. T. Hewitt 2013-03-01 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-555-2013 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/555/2013/tc-7-555-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/fc6aac0e4f0e4c979416c469c04b8710 en eng Copernicus Publications doi:10.5194/tc-7-555-2013 1994-0416 1994-0424 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/555/2013/tc-7-555-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/fc6aac0e4f0e4c979416c469c04b8710 undefined The Cryosphere, Vol 7, Iss 2, Pp 555-567 (2013) envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2013 fttriple https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-555-2013 2023-01-22T19:08:26Z The fully coupled climate model HadGEM1 produces one of the most accurate simulations of the historical record of Arctic sea ice seen in the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble. In this study, we examine projections of sea ice decline out to 2030, produced by two ensembles of HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings included. These ensembles project a significant slowing of the rate of ice loss to occur after 2010, with some integrations even simulating a small increase in ice area. We use an energy budget of the Arctic to examine the causes of this slowdown. A negative feedback effect by which rapid reductions in ice thickness north of Greenland reduce ice export is found to play a major role. A slight reduction in ocean-to-ice heat flux in the relevant period, caused by changes in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and subpolar gyre in some integrations, as well as freshening of the mixed layer driven by causes other than ice melt, is also found to play a part. Finally, we assess the likelihood of a slowdown occurring in the real world due to these causes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Greenland Sea ice The Cryosphere Unknown Arctic Greenland The Cryosphere 7 2 555 567 |
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envir geo A. E. West A. B. Keen H. T. Hewitt Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model |
topic_facet |
envir geo |
description |
The fully coupled climate model HadGEM1 produces one of the most accurate simulations of the historical record of Arctic sea ice seen in the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble. In this study, we examine projections of sea ice decline out to 2030, produced by two ensembles of HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings included. These ensembles project a significant slowing of the rate of ice loss to occur after 2010, with some integrations even simulating a small increase in ice area. We use an energy budget of the Arctic to examine the causes of this slowdown. A negative feedback effect by which rapid reductions in ice thickness north of Greenland reduce ice export is found to play a major role. A slight reduction in ocean-to-ice heat flux in the relevant period, caused by changes in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and subpolar gyre in some integrations, as well as freshening of the mixed layer driven by causes other than ice melt, is also found to play a part. Finally, we assess the likelihood of a slowdown occurring in the real world due to these causes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. E. West A. B. Keen H. T. Hewitt |
author_facet |
A. E. West A. B. Keen H. T. Hewitt |
author_sort |
A. E. West |
title |
Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model |
title_short |
Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model |
title_full |
Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model |
title_fullStr |
Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model |
title_sort |
mechanisms causing reduced arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-555-2013 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/555/2013/tc-7-555-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/fc6aac0e4f0e4c979416c469c04b8710 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Greenland Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Greenland Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 7, Iss 2, Pp 555-567 (2013) |
op_relation |
doi:10.5194/tc-7-555-2013 1994-0416 1994-0424 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/555/2013/tc-7-555-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/article/fc6aac0e4f0e4c979416c469c04b8710 |
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undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-555-2013 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
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7 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
555 |
op_container_end_page |
567 |
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