Reduced Risks of Temperature Extremes From 0.5°C less Global Warming in the Earth's Three Poles
Abstract Future projection of temperature extremes in the “Earth's three poles” (the Arctic, Antarctica, and Third Pole‐Tibetan Plateau [TP]) is of importance to risk assessment and policymaking owing to the high sensitivity to climate change in these regions. In this study, future projections...
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:fc0bee269fa24a7ba6f093de0c455784 2023-05-15T13:39:34+02:00 Reduced Risks of Temperature Extremes From 0.5°C less Global Warming in the Earth's Three Poles Bin Tang Wenting Hu Anmin Duan Kailun Gao Yuzuo Peng 2022-02-01 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002525 https://doaj.org/article/fc0bee269fa24a7ba6f093de0c455784 en eng Wiley 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2021EF002525 https://doaj.org/article/fc0bee269fa24a7ba6f093de0c455784 undefined Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 2, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) geo archi Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2022 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002525 2023-01-22T18:19:36Z Abstract Future projection of temperature extremes in the “Earth's three poles” (the Arctic, Antarctica, and Third Pole‐Tibetan Plateau [TP]) is of importance to risk assessment and policymaking owing to the high sensitivity to climate change in these regions. In this study, future projections of four extreme temperature indices were constructed after the application of a bias correction method in models of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The reduced intensification of temperature extremes in the Earth's three poles if warming can be limited to 1.5°C instead of 2°C above the pre‐industrial level was examined. Results showed that all the extreme temperature indices show significant increasing trends under both the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios over the Earth's three poles (SSP: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). For the coldest night (TNn), warmest night (TNx), and warmest day (TXx), the greatest increase by the end of the 21st century under SSP5–8.5 occurs in the Arctic, followed by the TP and finally Antarctica. For the coldest day (TXn), the greatest increase occurs in the Arctic, followed by Antarctica and finally the TP. If global warming can be limited to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, the intensification of TNn, TNx, TXn, and TXx in the Arctic (Antarctica/TP) under SSP5–8.5 is projected to reduce by 66% (21.7%/44.26%), 50.31% (54.79%/60.52%), 71.58% (12.91%/65.81%), and 41.73% (81.3%/57.34%), respectively, and the results are similar for SSP2–4.5. Therefore, keeping a lower warming target is essential for reducing the risk of extreme events in the Earth's three poles. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Climate change Global warming Unknown Arctic Earth's Future 10 2 |
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geo archi Bin Tang Wenting Hu Anmin Duan Kailun Gao Yuzuo Peng Reduced Risks of Temperature Extremes From 0.5°C less Global Warming in the Earth's Three Poles |
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description |
Abstract Future projection of temperature extremes in the “Earth's three poles” (the Arctic, Antarctica, and Third Pole‐Tibetan Plateau [TP]) is of importance to risk assessment and policymaking owing to the high sensitivity to climate change in these regions. In this study, future projections of four extreme temperature indices were constructed after the application of a bias correction method in models of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The reduced intensification of temperature extremes in the Earth's three poles if warming can be limited to 1.5°C instead of 2°C above the pre‐industrial level was examined. Results showed that all the extreme temperature indices show significant increasing trends under both the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios over the Earth's three poles (SSP: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). For the coldest night (TNn), warmest night (TNx), and warmest day (TXx), the greatest increase by the end of the 21st century under SSP5–8.5 occurs in the Arctic, followed by the TP and finally Antarctica. For the coldest day (TXn), the greatest increase occurs in the Arctic, followed by Antarctica and finally the TP. If global warming can be limited to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, the intensification of TNn, TNx, TXn, and TXx in the Arctic (Antarctica/TP) under SSP5–8.5 is projected to reduce by 66% (21.7%/44.26%), 50.31% (54.79%/60.52%), 71.58% (12.91%/65.81%), and 41.73% (81.3%/57.34%), respectively, and the results are similar for SSP2–4.5. Therefore, keeping a lower warming target is essential for reducing the risk of extreme events in the Earth's three poles. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bin Tang Wenting Hu Anmin Duan Kailun Gao Yuzuo Peng |
author_facet |
Bin Tang Wenting Hu Anmin Duan Kailun Gao Yuzuo Peng |
author_sort |
Bin Tang |
title |
Reduced Risks of Temperature Extremes From 0.5°C less Global Warming in the Earth's Three Poles |
title_short |
Reduced Risks of Temperature Extremes From 0.5°C less Global Warming in the Earth's Three Poles |
title_full |
Reduced Risks of Temperature Extremes From 0.5°C less Global Warming in the Earth's Three Poles |
title_fullStr |
Reduced Risks of Temperature Extremes From 0.5°C less Global Warming in the Earth's Three Poles |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reduced Risks of Temperature Extremes From 0.5°C less Global Warming in the Earth's Three Poles |
title_sort |
reduced risks of temperature extremes from 0.5°c less global warming in the earth's three poles |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002525 https://doaj.org/article/fc0bee269fa24a7ba6f093de0c455784 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 2, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) |
op_relation |
2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2021EF002525 https://doaj.org/article/fc0bee269fa24a7ba6f093de0c455784 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002525 |
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Earth's Future |
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10 |
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2 |
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