Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies

• Published in: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
• Main Authors: Joseph B. Courtney, Sébastien Langlade, Stephen Barlow, Thomas Birchard, John A. Knaff, S.D. Kotal, Tarik Kriat, Woojeong Lee, Richard Pasch, Charles R. Sampson, Udai Shimada, Amit Singh
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2019
• Subjects: envir; manag; Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003; https://doaj.org/article/f9dcfd74c9134f67a964b9307ddc7608

This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to increase forecast skill, albeit incrementally, while others have struggled to make any significant improvements. Rapid intensity changes continue to present major challenges to operational centers and individual difficult cases illustrate the forecasting challenges. It is noteworthy that the realization of a recommendation from IWTC-8 in 2014, to adapt guidance initially developed for the North Atlantic and North-East Pacific to other basins, has led to improved forecast skill of some agencies. Recent worldwide difficult cases are presented so that the research community can further investigate, potentially leading to improved intensity forecasts when similar cases are observed in the future. Keywords: tropical cyclone, intensity, change, rapid intensification