Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies
This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to incr...
Published in: | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
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Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2019
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 https://doaj.org/article/f9dcfd74c9134f67a964b9307ddc7608 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:f9dcfd74c9134f67a964b9307ddc7608 2023-05-15T17:32:25+02:00 Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies Joseph B. Courtney Sébastien Langlade Stephen Barlow Thomas Birchard John A. Knaff S.D. Kotal Tarik Kriat Woojeong Lee Richard Pasch Charles R. Sampson Udai Shimada Amit Singh 2019-12-01 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 https://doaj.org/article/f9dcfd74c9134f67a964b9307ddc7608 en eng KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2225-6032 doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 https://doaj.org/article/f9dcfd74c9134f67a964b9307ddc7608 undefined Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol 8, Iss 4, Pp 226-239 (2019) envir manag Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2019 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 2023-01-22T19:12:40Z This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to increase forecast skill, albeit incrementally, while others have struggled to make any significant improvements. Rapid intensity changes continue to present major challenges to operational centers and individual difficult cases illustrate the forecasting challenges. It is noteworthy that the realization of a recommendation from IWTC-8 in 2014, to adapt guidance initially developed for the North Atlantic and North-East Pacific to other basins, has led to improved forecast skill of some agencies. Recent worldwide difficult cases are presented so that the research community can further investigate, potentially leading to improved intensity forecasts when similar cases are observed in the future. Keywords: tropical cyclone, intensity, change, rapid intensification Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Unknown Pacific Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 8 4 226 239 |
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envir manag Joseph B. Courtney Sébastien Langlade Stephen Barlow Thomas Birchard John A. Knaff S.D. Kotal Tarik Kriat Woojeong Lee Richard Pasch Charles R. Sampson Udai Shimada Amit Singh Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies |
topic_facet |
envir manag |
description |
This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to increase forecast skill, albeit incrementally, while others have struggled to make any significant improvements. Rapid intensity changes continue to present major challenges to operational centers and individual difficult cases illustrate the forecasting challenges. It is noteworthy that the realization of a recommendation from IWTC-8 in 2014, to adapt guidance initially developed for the North Atlantic and North-East Pacific to other basins, has led to improved forecast skill of some agencies. Recent worldwide difficult cases are presented so that the research community can further investigate, potentially leading to improved intensity forecasts when similar cases are observed in the future. Keywords: tropical cyclone, intensity, change, rapid intensification |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Joseph B. Courtney Sébastien Langlade Stephen Barlow Thomas Birchard John A. Knaff S.D. Kotal Tarik Kriat Woojeong Lee Richard Pasch Charles R. Sampson Udai Shimada Amit Singh |
author_facet |
Joseph B. Courtney Sébastien Langlade Stephen Barlow Thomas Birchard John A. Knaff S.D. Kotal Tarik Kriat Woojeong Lee Richard Pasch Charles R. Sampson Udai Shimada Amit Singh |
author_sort |
Joseph B. Courtney |
title |
Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies |
title_short |
Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies |
title_full |
Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies |
title_fullStr |
Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies |
title_full_unstemmed |
Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies |
title_sort |
operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change part 2: forecasts by operational agencies |
publisher |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 https://doaj.org/article/f9dcfd74c9134f67a964b9307ddc7608 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol 8, Iss 4, Pp 226-239 (2019) |
op_relation |
2225-6032 doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 https://doaj.org/article/f9dcfd74c9134f67a964b9307ddc7608 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 |
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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
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8 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
226 |
op_container_end_page |
239 |
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1766130557883777024 |