Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations
The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-cli...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.328 https://doaj.org/article/f39b1df7bb1f48b5ab0b1c3049f6fc46 |
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fttriple:oai:gotriple.eu:oai:doaj.org/article:f39b1df7bb1f48b5ab0b1c3049f6fc46 2023-05-15T13:56:01+02:00 Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations Juan P. Boisier Camila Alvarez-Garretón Raúl R. Cordero Alessandro Damiani Laura Gallardo René D. Garreaud Fabrice Lambert Cinthya Ramallo Maisa Rojas Roberto Rondanelli 2018-12-01 https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.328 https://doaj.org/article/f39b1df7bb1f48b5ab0b1c3049f6fc46 en eng BioOne 2325-1026 doi:10.1525/elementa.328 https://doaj.org/article/f39b1df7bb1f48b5ab0b1c3049f6fc46 undefined Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, Vol 6, Iss 1 (2018) Chile Climate change Drying trends Drought Greenhouse gas and ozone depletion Southern annular mode envir geo Journal Article https://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/resource_types/c_6501/ 2018 fttriple https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.328 2023-01-22T19:12:40Z The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30–48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend’s seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Unknown Antarctic The Antarctic Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 6 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
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op_collection_id |
fttriple |
language |
English |
topic |
Chile Climate change Drying trends Drought Greenhouse gas and ozone depletion Southern annular mode envir geo |
spellingShingle |
Chile Climate change Drying trends Drought Greenhouse gas and ozone depletion Southern annular mode envir geo Juan P. Boisier Camila Alvarez-Garretón Raúl R. Cordero Alessandro Damiani Laura Gallardo René D. Garreaud Fabrice Lambert Cinthya Ramallo Maisa Rojas Roberto Rondanelli Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
topic_facet |
Chile Climate change Drying trends Drought Greenhouse gas and ozone depletion Southern annular mode envir geo |
description |
The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30–48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend’s seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Juan P. Boisier Camila Alvarez-Garretón Raúl R. Cordero Alessandro Damiani Laura Gallardo René D. Garreaud Fabrice Lambert Cinthya Ramallo Maisa Rojas Roberto Rondanelli |
author_facet |
Juan P. Boisier Camila Alvarez-Garretón Raúl R. Cordero Alessandro Damiani Laura Gallardo René D. Garreaud Fabrice Lambert Cinthya Ramallo Maisa Rojas Roberto Rondanelli |
author_sort |
Juan P. Boisier |
title |
Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
title_short |
Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
title_full |
Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
title_fullStr |
Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
title_sort |
anthropogenic drying in central-southern chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations |
publisher |
BioOne |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.328 https://doaj.org/article/f39b1df7bb1f48b5ab0b1c3049f6fc46 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, Vol 6, Iss 1 (2018) |
op_relation |
2325-1026 doi:10.1525/elementa.328 https://doaj.org/article/f39b1df7bb1f48b5ab0b1c3049f6fc46 |
op_rights |
undefined |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.328 |
container_title |
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene |
container_volume |
6 |
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1766263239951253504 |